Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 6. (Read 62097 times)

I would disagree. Some people have made a lot of money shorting bitcoin if they have timed the market correctly. You need to remember that most traders do not generally enter into long term trades.

And potentially higher losses. The amount of USD swaps is persistently high at over $20 million. It's not as volatile as shorts, so I assume that a large part of it is long-term longs That's what makes me wonder.

Would be stupid not too short looking back. 20/20 hindsight.

Only newbie traders would ever short bitcoin. So the price is biased toward long.

If you have a leveraged position then you will potentially have a higher reward when the price spikes, and considering that most people with leveraged positions are short term traders, a bet on the price moving significantly in the direction of the direction that the trader is assuming bitcoin will move in is assumed to be somewhat leveraged

Some traders short the coin to hedge the interest rate.

If coin price spike up, so too will the interest rate. If price goes down, they profit from short when the daily rate is down.

Anyway, anyone who short on every spike for the last few 9 months did very well compare to perma bull or perma bear.

That's prudent. Not everyone is prudent, it seems.

That's right, but holding leveraged long positions no matter what does seem strange to me.
If I want to have long-term position, I'm simply buying coins (no leverage) so that I'm not stopped out

You would be insane to short long term in this market.

It seems that this retracement was good for shorters
What I noticed is that short positions are a lot more dynamic than the long ones.

BTC    6,094.28 BTC 

Credit bubble is back on.

My old theory: high rates attract lenders. If we see sustained rates of 0.15%-0.20%/day, we'll see a dramatic increase in swap available.

Some people who had auto-renewal FRR might have turned it off and are waiting to get their money back before they set new rates.  So this will withhold swap from the market for short periods.

Oh noooooo
THis is what leads to a sharp correction! 

LENDS USD
[{"rate":"46.2151","amount_lent":"25354183.99377569","timestamp":1415885681},{"rate":"45.7134","amount_lent":"25422973.86967759","timestamp":1415882100},{"rate":"39.9417","amount_lent":"24432063.05490754","timestamp":1415878490},{"rate":"34.49","amount_lent":"24085149.57999484","timestamp":1415874884},{"rate":"35.7464","amount_lent":"24291518.14652401","timestamp":1415871278},{"rate":"33.5533","amount_lent":"24342285.21627311","timestamp":1415867672},{"rate":"30.4738","amount_lent":"23587827.13128288","timestamp":1415864068},{"rate":"25.7434","amount_lent":"23928948.68797412","timestamp":1415860460},{"rate":"25.6673","amount_lent":"23723413.35155323","timestamp":1415856884},{"rate":"25.6432","amount_lent":"23929920.01964789","timestamp":1415853271}]

LENDS BTC
[{"rate":"4.8502","amount_lent":"12568.03336489","timestamp":1415885681},{"rate":"4.8727","amount_lent":"12608.08275801","timestamp":1415882100},{"rate":"4.9394","amount_lent":"12870.89775182","timestamp":1415878490},{"rate":"4.9786","amount_lent":"13203.39990871","timestamp":1415874884},{"rate":"4.9615","amount_lent":"12661.98324934","timestamp":1415871278},{"rate":"4.9907","amount_lent":"11378.57944459","timestamp":1415867672},{"rate":"5.0565","amount_lent":"11023.38351994","timestamp":1415864068},{"rate":"5.1834","amount_lent":"11530.52328282","timestamp":1415860460},{"rate":"5.255","amount_lent":"11662.64626497","timestamp":1415856884},{"rate":"5.2564","amount_lent":"11489.9390798","timestamp":1415853271}]

CURRENT BTC OFFERS
APR       (daily):    Amount

4.161000 (0.011400): 1.813832
4.161000 (0.011400): 0.117180
4.161000 (0.011400): 2.585825
4.197500 (0.011500): 10.000000
4.197500 (0.011500): 0.429321
4.380000 (0.012000): 16.803522
4.562500 (0.012500): 3.741487
4.671900 (0.012800): 1.041360
4.671900 (0.012800): 0.314970
4.672000 (0.012800): 50.000000

no more usd left

Actually you are correct. My mistake

It has declined because people have attempted to arbitrage the difference in prices, however this ability is limited because it takes time to get fiat to bitfinex so you cannot instantly buy unlimited amounts of coins there.

more like 4.5% -- thats alot!

A $20 difference is only ~0.45% difference which is less then the trading fee you would pay to trade on both exchanges so people will not attempt to arbitrage this difference and the difference is small enough to be statistically irrelevant.

During the day it was more like a $15-20 difference.

okcoin price is way higher.