Pages:
Author

Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 2. (Read 62097 times)

hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 1000
I agree! With bitcoin trading it is always scary. Cheesy

If you are referring to risk, everyone takes risk.

Its just a matter of how to manage that risk or have a net to make up for it if its a loss. But, if you dont have a plan, youre more likely to fail a lot harder, which you see all the time not just bitcoin but everyday stuff as well.

hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Shorts ATH
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
I wonder when the longs are going to close their positions when/if the price goes up. I mean, they'll most likely open up new longs, won't they? Will they even wait for the bubble to pop? Who knows...
full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 100
I agree! With bitcoin trading it is always scary. Cheesy

scary is not the word Grin
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 503
Legendary trader
I agree! With bitcoin trading it is always scary. Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
Another ATH in BTC swaps volume, according to BFXData. Kinda scary to be short atm. USD swaps are on the rise as well though.
Isn't it the other way around actually (scary to be long)? Since everyone is already fully invested the momentum will stall?
I actually think either is scary Cheesy When volatility comes there will be blood, no matter which way the price goes.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 503
Legendary trader
Another ATH in BTC swaps volume, according to BFXData. Kinda scary to be short atm. USD swaps are on the rise as well though.
Isn't it the other way around actually (scary to be long)? Since everyone is already fully invested the momentum will stall?
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
Another ATH in BTC swaps volume, according to BFXData. Kinda scary to be short atm. USD swaps are on the rise as well though.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
February 27, 2015, 11:14:00 PM
What about the fiat credit bubble that's been going on for decades? How do you think that's gonna end?

I'm no economic expert but I heard most countries are heavily in debt. Exactly who do they owe the money to and do they just print more money if they can't pay? Whoever they borrow the money off must have a shitload of cash.

They do owe money to other countries' governments and private persons. If you aggregate the net debt of all countries, you find the debt that is owed to individuals.

If they pay, the money goes to the lender and the debt money is extinguished. If they can not pay, the money is lost for the lender, but stays with the loaner (or whoever got them from the loaner). Again the debt part is extinguished. There are two parties to each loan (unless there are errors in the books, which is quite possible, but I don't think that have practical consequences overall).

Volatility may harm the lender (who might be you through a pension fund) if there is a default, the loaner if the loan is cancelled, and everybody as the money volume suddenly contracts.

legendary
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
February 27, 2015, 06:08:10 AM
We have lots of shorts once again
BTC 24,405.44 BTC   

That's actually good news Smiley

That's what I was thinking... perhaps, there is more to come.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
February 27, 2015, 03:25:53 AM
What about the fiat credit bubble that's been going on for decades? How do you think that's gonna end?

I'm no economic expert but I heard most countries are heavily in debt. Exactly who do they owe the money to and do they just print more money if they can't pay? Whoever they borrow the money off must have a shitload of cash.

Dude, debt IS money.

Fiat money is CREATED when a bank issues credit . So yes, they have an infinite shitload of cash.

I know it's hard to grasp, but it's well worth understanding this.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
February 27, 2015, 03:22:10 AM
What about the fiat credit bubble that's been going on for decades? How do you think that's gonna end?

nuclear winter
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
February 26, 2015, 07:46:29 PM
What about the fiat credit bubble that's been going on for decades? How do you think that's gonna end?
It's when THEY come for your Bitcoins.

sr. member
Activity: 327
Merit: 250
February 26, 2015, 07:19:04 PM
What about the fiat credit bubble that's been going on for decades? How do you think that's gonna end?

I'm no economic expert but I heard most countries are heavily in debt. Exactly who do they owe the money to and do they just print more money if they can't pay? Whoever they borrow the money off must have a shitload of cash.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
February 26, 2015, 07:11:06 PM
What about the fiat credit bubble that's been going on for decades? How do you think that's gonna end?
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
February 26, 2015, 05:58:10 PM
ok, it's realitively good news.
sr. member
Activity: 361
Merit: 250
February 26, 2015, 02:32:10 PM
don't forget the longs which are about 3 times the amount. In addition there are lots of people leveraged by loans, mortages and creditcards in order to go long Bitcoin. I am not sure about any facility where you can borrow bitcoins in order to short them (apart from some btc exchanges). A long squeeze seems much more likely than a short one. Especcially with a lot of people believing that we have seen the bottom. We do know that an underlying is always moving into the direction of most pain.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
February 26, 2015, 02:56:37 AM
We have lots of shorts once again
BTC 24,405.44 BTC   

That's actually good news Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
February 26, 2015, 01:16:12 AM
We have lots of shorts once again
BTC 24,405.44 BTC   
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
So what does this mean? Once people start paying back the loans there will be an cascade of sells = downward pressure on the market?

That would be a long squeeze. In a short squeeze there are cascading buys of the asset (BTC) and the loans closing are in BTC, not USD.

The reason is arbitrary, but of course is in effect a rising price. That forces shorts to close in a cascading effect.

DEFINITION OF 'SHORT SQUEEZE'
A situation in which a heavily shorted stock or commodity moves sharply higher, forcing more short sellers to close out their short positions and adding to the upward pressure on the stock. A short squeeze implies that short sellers are being squeezed out of their short positions, usually at a loss. A short squeeze is generally triggered by a positive development that suggests the stock may be embarking on a turnaround.

Now, of course many shorts will close voluntarily before they are forced (we already saw this to an extent).

If no short was forced to close and yet many shorts closed voluntarily during a juicy rally, would we still call it a short squeeze? I'm not sure.
Pages:
Jump to: