Topic: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well - page 3. (Read 62097 times)
So what does this mean? Once people start paying back the loans there will be an cascade of sells = downward pressure on the market?
I actually don't really want to see that many short squeezes. I'm fed up by all those rapid jumps up, only to go down again and end up at even lower levels. I'm totally fine with a constant and sustainable grow, actually! Then again, margin-calling some bears is a very good thought 
I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed 
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
short squeeze will not happen at these level imo.
we need to be patient
Yes, it seems people are expecting a short squeeze as the cause for a great rise... Not really how it works.
I think a slow and gradual short squeeze may happen. People shorting all the way down seldomly encountered moments where shorting was a bad decision. They will continue to do so. Those shorts will be margin called at some point. Also people who realize they're now wrong shorting will close their position and buy their coins back.
This price rise since the crash looks over to me. I'm guessing there will be another crash to lower lows soon.
guessing is the correct term.
there are always new lower lows... until there aren't.
it's anyones guess, I guess.
True words molecular. The change from a bear and bull market happens when traders guess down a few times but the market moves up or fails to drop instead. Eventually more and more traders guess up then moon.
This price rise since the crash looks over to me. I'm guessing there will be another crash to lower lows soon.
guessing is the correct term.
there are always new lower lows... until there aren't.
it's anyones guess, I guess.
I have been bearish during all 2014 (just check my posts) and I'm still bearish. The breach of the long term support showed on a logarithmitc charter (that starts at 2.23 usds and was breached at around 274 on Bitstamp) doesn't promise nothing good.
All, or almost all, of bitcoin's recoveries in price had been in V. That is, a sudden crash, with heavy panic selling, followed by a fast recovery that ends up as a V on a price chart. We haven't seen that yet. This recent recovery seems to be a retrace back. It might keep going up, perhaps to 250 or 260 (who knows, I doubt that, but can go up to touch again the breached trend line, now at about 285), but I'm betting on heavy lower lows. But don't take that on me alone. Check what some are posting at tradingview.com.
That isn't necessarily negative. It can be an almost once in a life time opportunity, if you wait for the right moment to go long. Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been so good (major adoption by retailers). In due time, there is a pretty good chance that price will go up like a missile. But first, probably, there will be much more blood and tears.
This scenario will be falsified if bitcoin goes up above 300 usds.
All, or almost all, of bitcoin's recoveries in price had been in V. That is, a sudden crash, with heavy panic selling, followed by a fast recovery that ends up as a V on a price chart. We haven't seen that yet. This recent recovery seems to be a retrace back. It might keep going up, perhaps to 250 or 260 (who knows, I doubt that, but can go up to touch again the breached trend line, now at about 285), but I'm betting on heavy lower lows. But don't take that on me alone. Check what some are posting at tradingview.com.
That isn't necessarily negative. It can be an almost once in a life time opportunity, if you wait for the right moment to go long. Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been so good (major adoption by retailers). In due time, there is a pretty good chance that price will go up like a missile. But first, probably, there will be much more blood and tears.
This scenario will be falsified if bitcoin goes up above 300 usds.
This price rise since the crash looks over to me. I'm guessing there will be another crash to lower lows soon.
The bubble hasn't popped yet, we are yet to see capitulation stage i think.
I have been bearish during all 2014 (just check my posts) and I'm still bearish. The breach of the long term support showed on a logarithmitc charter (that starts at 2.23 usds and was breached at around 274 on Bitstamp) doesn't promise nothing good.
All, or almost all, of bitcoin's recoveries in price had been in V. That is, a sudden crash, with heavy panic selling, followed by a fast recovery that ends up as a V on a price chart. We haven't seen that yet. This recent recovery seems to be a retrace back. It might keep going up, perhaps to 250 or 260 (who knows, I doubt that, but can go up to touch again the breached trend line, now at about 285), but I'm betting on heavy lower lows. But don't take that on me alone. Check what some are posting at tradingview.com.
That isn't necessarily negative. It can be an almost once in a life time opportunity, if you wait for the right moment to go long. Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been so good (major adoption by retailers). In due time, there is a pretty good chance that price will go up like a missile. But first, probably, there will be much more blood and tears.
This scenario will be falsified if bitcoin goes up above 300 usds.
All, or almost all, of bitcoin's recoveries in price had been in V. That is, a sudden crash, with heavy panic selling, followed by a fast recovery that ends up as a V on a price chart. We haven't seen that yet. This recent recovery seems to be a retrace back. It might keep going up, perhaps to 250 or 260 (who knows, I doubt that, but can go up to touch again the breached trend line, now at about 285), but I'm betting on heavy lower lows. But don't take that on me alone. Check what some are posting at tradingview.com.
That isn't necessarily negative. It can be an almost once in a life time opportunity, if you wait for the right moment to go long. Bitcoin's fundamentals have never been so good (major adoption by retailers). In due time, there is a pretty good chance that price will go up like a missile. But first, probably, there will be much more blood and tears.
This scenario will be falsified if bitcoin goes up above 300 usds.
I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
short squeeze will not happen at these level imo.
we need to be patient
Yes, it seems people are expecting a short squeeze as the cause for a great rise... Not really how it works.
Just want more volatility. 
I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
short squeeze will not happen at these level imo.
we need to be patient
Yes, it seems people are expecting a short squeeze as the cause for a great rise... Not really how it works.
I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
short squeeze will not happen at these level imo.
we need to be patient
I'd be more comfortable if short covering was more dynamic, if short were squeezed
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
But it seems buying pressure is very limited
I calculated the ratio of longs vs. shorts:
this result is consistent with my prediction
As long as there isnt a withdrawal rush it doesnt really matter. A long term downtrend could deplete fiat reserves though.
My guess is that some exchanges had more fiat sitting on egopay than they are admitting.
reasons go higher, please post your extraordinary insight, we're looking into the crystal ball, as well, not much there, except maybe a pile up traffic jam of too many sellers and no buyers, which is more down, as well..
Looks like the recent upswing is totally because of some short closing.
I wouldn't be surprised. Bitfinex has been trading above other major exchanges roughly since the price bottomed out. The price now roughly matches that of bitstamp and is ~$6 higher then btc-e. I would say that this would indicate that buying pressure due to short covering is mostly gone. It will be interesting to see where we go from here
Looks like the recent upswing is totally because of some short closing.
Swaps back to an all-time-high at 26,500 BTC. A bit weird because the $150-$165 bottom sure looked like a desperate v-shaped crash to the absolute bottom (of the one year bear cycle).
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