Topic: This rally is a pirate bubble - page 4. (Read 8670 times)

Lol I can actually see this happening

If this rally is indeed a bubble created by gullible "investors" entering the BTC market in order to "invest" in Pirate's scheme, it's going to be hilarious when the bubble collapses and everyone who bought high first withdraws from Pirate and then sells quickly, triggering the collapse of Pirate's ponzi scheme. Here's to hoping that the bubble takes BTC price to unprecedented highs!

You also warned us not to pay too much for bitcoins.  You being a lawyer I can understand why you would say too opposite views in a subtle way such that you cant be wrong.

Not until after BTC hits about $13.... 

A Pirate default would likely to be triggered by a sharp increase in the BTC / USD price and in many scenarios could even trigger a BTC buying panic rather than a crash. De-leveraging makes the remaining currency more valuable not less so. During the recent downturn in 2008 prices went down making cash in the form of say USD more valuable. By the way I believe this rally is in spite of Pirate not because of him.

So now Pirate's Ponzi is fucked if the prices go UP and when they go DOWN! lol

What if we start a new thread trying to get people to pledge to withdraw 50k coins from pirate on a certain date, September 1 for instance. This would create lots of fear of a collapsing ponzi therefore even more withdrawals than the pledged amount. If Pirate would not be able to take the loss (because of a ponzi), he would simply stop allowing withdrawals and run, probably a day or two before the planned mass withdrawal.

How many coins does he have, anyway?

This is a very interesting thought. I did not know of that 2008 chain reaction, but it makes sense! The type of herd behavior is the same, so the withdrawals might correlate very well with trend-following sales.

Thanks for sharing this.

Stop spamming your post everywhere.

Wonder how many people read my 9 June 2012 post before all this got started.

One more thing, my new best guess for when pirate defaults is when we see a correction in the bitcoin price. Not mini-corrections in the uptrend, but a deeper correction followed by a trend reversal. This would be analogous to all the Wall Street ponzis which collapsed in 2008 when the stock prices reverses. Fear gripped the market, depositors wanted to withdraw from funds, and those withdraws exposed the ponzis.

That would be the latest estimate for when he defaults (most certainly before oct 2013), but of course it could be any time.

Well, some people were withdrawing (eg MageD) and everybody was nervous about his vegas meet-up. Since it seems to have taken place, its likely there will be a wave of new investors. But that doesn't mean default is no longer imminent, indeed it could very well be. It just depends on the market (both the PPT market and the bitcoin market) and pirate's exit strategy.



There is an unhealthy amount of lending schemes going on right now, but I think you might be overestimating the proportion of new buyers they are attracting.

I see evidence for a variety of new investors: the reuters article mentioning the ip addresses of wall street firms visiting mtgox at the beginning of the year, silk road forum post count supposedly 50% of the bitcointalk post count, butterfly labs mining investments, coinLab investment by Ycombinator.

The fact that price has held up so well against the utter vaporization of bitcoinica shows that the bitcoin is market is more resilient and decentralized than I had anticipated (unfortunately for myself, 20% of my funds were in a long position on bitcoinica). So I don't think that a crash of pirate's scheme would affect the market. And actualy from that, one can infer the converse that the success of his scheme is not what's currently driving the price increase. I may be way underestimating the size of his scheme, but I think its fair to say that bitcoinica had a far greater market penetration than pirate does. Of course, MtGox remains the greatest centralized point of risk to the bitcoin price.

hahahaohwow.jpg

Let me be the first to have the honor to welcome you to the halls of this forum, kind Sir!

+1

there are some strong hands holding onto BTC and the reward for mining has not even cut in half

there are still new people "investing" in pirate? i had the impression that the "market" is already saturated, and some believe that his "default" is imminent.

I wonder if pirate is the US government trying to buy up as many BTC as possible. They can afford to pay out 7% with their fiat.

nahhh just a over due correction, How many bought again higher than 10 when you sold below 9.50, supply and demand, we are in a bull market, wish I can enjoy this run but most of my bitcoins is trapped with bitcoinica

impressive :-)

Schrödinger's bubble ?