Earlier I posted about the "King Effect". Well, it's reversed. This can mean two things: one, the king effect applied to Bitcoin is utter bollocks; two, a correction is due; or three, we will soon rally to new heights. If you believe in the king effect applied to Bitcoin, stability ain't going to happen anytime soon.
I really like your posts, but why bother saying the bolded part? So either nothing will happen or something will happen?
That's the problem with weak assumptions: there isn't much predictive power. Mathematics is certain because the assumptions are strict: for example, we assume that, without proof, for
every integer there is an integer one greater, which itself is not lesser than the given integer. We can safely do so because it seems obvious, but it still is a strong and unprovable argument. If these assumptions were not
obvious, most of our results in mathematics would be uncertain.
The school of economic analysis I subscribe to employes weak assumptions, in part because there is nothing
obvious to assume. To predict the future, we need to consider patterns in the past. However, unlike the example with numbers, it is not
obvious that these patterns will indefinitely continue. As a result, a caveat must be included: there is always the chance that the assumption is invalid.
Unfortunately, this means that the predictive utility is very low. On the other hand, the accuracy is very high. For every increase in accuracy, the utility must suffer (and, of course, vice versa). An extreme example is predicting that "either A or not A", which is guaranteed to be accurate 100% of the time, but also of null utility. Contrarily, predicting that "the Bitcoin price for the next 70 years can be generated with the function [...], which is accurate to the nearest millisecond and to the nearest $0.00000001" would be extremely useful if true, but also almost definitely inaccurate.
On topic, another day another metre walked:
1. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58
2. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25
3. 2013-02-15 W. Avg: 26.994. 2013-02-13 W. Avg: 25.485. 2013-02-14 W. Avg: 25.466. 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 25.097. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67
8. 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 24.139. 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 23.4210. 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 23.2411. 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 22.42
12. 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 21.61
13. 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 21.09
14. 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 20.73
15. 2013-01-31 W. Avg: 20.58
16. 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.57
17. 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 20.42
18. 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 20.26
19. 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.11
20. 2011-06-07 W. Avg: 19.90