I've decided to respond to this theory in as much detail as I can muster, since it seems to be a perversion of my 'Walmart versus Target mining cartels' concept from two years ago....
Once Bitcoin's coin rewards decline to less than can pay for the miner's costs, e.g. <1% per annum debasement by 2033 and <0.2% by 2040, then transaction fees are supposed to fund miners. The following attack applies whether transactions are voluntary, variable, fixed, or mandatory-- it makes no difference.
Indeed, it does make no difference. I makes no difference now, however the miners are funded. Mining has always been intended to be a competitive function that tends towards a zero markup. I'll get there soon....
But a cartel (e.g. Amazon.com) could for example harvest transactions from its vast network and keep them without forwarding them to other miners. Then put them on the blocks found by its own mining servers. This would starve the rest of the network of funding and eventually the cartel would be doing all the mining. They could even offer 0% transaction fees (even refund mandatory tx fees) to entice more of the masses to process through their servers.
That is the same as turning Bitcoin into a centralized currency, and thus eventually controlled by the government and thus back to fiat again.
Note this postulated attack wouldn't be possible for 20 years or so,
No, we could do it sooner than than that, and I expect it will happen within the next two years. However, I don't consider it an attack, I consider it a feature. I'll explain why shortly....
I believe I am the first person to raise that in my Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch article? I am naming it the "transactions withholding attack" since it means not forwarding transactions in order to monopolize transaction fees, as coin rewards diminish.
Not even close to being the first. This is one of the set of memes that pops up repeatedly under the many "
I'm a noob, but I alone am so smart that I have discovered the Great Bitcoin Flaw!" posts.
Let me summerize the root of this (assumed) attack vector, for clarity. If I miss a fine point, I'm sure that you will point it out, and we can adress it then.
As I understnad it, the thoery is that a greedy mining pool could choose to withhold fee-paying transactions that it has received, and retain them until it has solved it's own block; with the implication of boosting it's pool payouts relative to other pools. In turn attracting pool miners away from other pools, until such point that the first pool controls more than 50% of the total mining power, functionally owning the Bitcon network.
There are many counter-economic effects that would contradict the leverage that such a mining pool could gain over the network, so I'll only go over a few of the most significant.
First and foremost; the mining pools, nor any other miner, are not significant contributers to the fee paying transactions on the bitcoin netowrk. Said another way, it's not in the interest of merchants to only submit their transactions to one mining pool, even if it's the largest. It's in the interest of merchants to spread any transactions intended for themselves as far and wide across the bitcoin network as possible, as that reduces the risks involved in a well timed double-spend attack. And being a p2p netowrk, there is no way for a mining pool to prevent any valid transaction from spreading regardless of whether or not that particular mining pool forwards said traansaction to it's competitiors or not.
Second, the largest miners have an economic incentive to cooperate with one another with regard to the bandwidth and information flow across the network, since working together they have a small, but notable, speed advantage over small mining outfits that must rely on slower Internet connections. The more and faster peer connections major miners have to one another, the faster that they (as a group) can include those fee paying transactions into their own queues. The faster they can do that, the more likely that whichever miner (among themselves) to solve the next block will have
all of the fee paying transactions available at the moment. Any effort to corner the market on transactions would be regarded as not playing square with the rest of the major players, and will end up getting that pool cut out of the core of the network, and edge connected miners have a slightly higher rate of orphaned blocks as well.
Third, one unstated premise with this kind of attack vector theory is that the fees and block rewards are the only way that professional mining operations can make money. This has never been the intended result of a mature bitcoin network. Since mining profits are desinged to trend towards zero, the protocol permits 'out-of-band' methods of paying for transactions. For example (and this is where we get to my Walmart verus Target theory from two years ago), it's expected that as Bitcoin matures, major retail outfits will not only start accepting bitcoins for meatspace purchases, they will also start supporting mining themselves. Likewise, one such advantage that Walmart could offer over it's competitors is free transactions accepted at the counters. Since it's not safe to accept such transactions without confirmations, it then becomes highly in Walmart's own interest to sponsor a mining outfit that will process free transactions intended for Walmart's own wallet of addresses as quickly as possible. Said another way, it's in Walmart's interest to pay a mining out fit (be it a mining pool, a seperate company, or an internal group to Walmart corporate) to process transactions
at a loss. Of course, it's also not in Walmart's interest to process a competitors' free transactions (i.e. Target) in the same way, so Walmart is also paying to keep Target's free transactions out of their own mining pools. This sets up
competing cartels, that each serve different players in each industry. Say, as an example, that BTC Guild took contracts to mine for Walmart, McDonalds & Sears; while Eglius took contracts to mine for Target, Burger King & JCPenny's. While this certainly is consolidation of the market for mining services, and consistant with the dirve towards driving the profit margin for mining to zero (or perhaps lower, under certain conditions) it's also impossible for there to be only one, because if any single mining pool were to gain more market share over the others, the others would suddenly be able to offer these out-of-band services for much cheaper to unrepresented merchants. The cartels are, thus, self limiting in scope with regard to the bitcoin network itself, which is all that we really care about on the macro scale.
And fourth, there will always be a minority of small and sigular miners that mine at less than zero profit for various reasons. One such reason is simply that mining produces heat in the winter, and thus a mining rig, once you already own it, is nothing more than an elector-resistive heater. If you live in a area with both a high heat demand & relatively chaep electricty (i.e. Iceland) any actual coins your mining rigs produce become secondary profit. No mining pool will ever be able to compete with that, if for no other reason than bandwidth consumptionbecomes a greater burden than solo mining in this context.
Questoins? Objections?