I can agree with you about a point that Manchester City were still really strong last season despite not having Erling Haaland. Especially in Etihad there was a goal duel between them and Real Madrid as far as I can remember - it finished by 4-3. The problem was in Santiago Bernabeu. In fact they got ahead first then but Real Madrid's comeback in only two minutes in the last moments was amazing and this was the turning point for Real Madrid at the same time.
I don't say it was totally by luck of course as Real Madrid also made a big effort. However their luck was also making an extra contribution in the second leg. This time I think that Real Madrid wouldn't be able to repeat this scenario in a similar situation as it is an a little rare incident in football. Besides Manchester City can make sure of it thanks to Haaland's beast mode also.
I'm not sure how to put this into words, but Real Madrid has something different from any other team when it plays the Champions League, you can say it's tradition, luck, magic...I don't know
I agree with several of you when you say that Manchester City is much more prepared for the Champions League, and in my opinion they are the team that is playing better and very deserving of winning that first title.
I am thinking a lot about who to bet on for the qualification and I am almost decided to bet on Manchester City, but there is always that doubt if Vini Jr, Benzema or Rodrygo can do something amazing.
Halaand is a very strong point for M. City because in a few minutes he has the ability to do just like Benzema and Rodrygo did last season, practically win a match "all by himself", even with the team not playing a good match.
Something also worries me that many times teams like M City do an almost perfect championship and when they face Real Madrid they lose. And Real Madrid is the opposite, they start badly, a bit discredited, get in a "crisis" and suddenly they are in the final.
In the match between Inter and Milan I don't have a good guess even though I have also watched some good matches from both teams.
And I think the champion will be one of the two teams from the M. City vs Real Madrid match.
Anyway I am analyzing here the best bet to make in the semi final.