UFC Fight Night & Main Event: Sportsbet.io Predictions & discussion - page 99.

Betwrong

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I see both of you, guys, @buwaytress and @rdbase, are betting on Antonina Shevchenko, and I'm wondering why do think she's going to win?

I mean, she uswed to be a great fighter in the past, but I think beginning this year she has started losing her strength. She's 36 after all. I know they say even 40 is not too old for MMA, but c'mon, being 36 you have slim chances of beating a 23 y.o.

I'm so sure Casey will win, I even placed a bet on her on sportsbet.io, and then placed another one.

rdbase

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^^
Just as long as your in the black then that is all that counts when it comes to betting.
Use whatever system that suits you best cause betting the same way going into events never gives the best results.
For example, if you bet go the distance when you notice the earlier fights of the night are going their full rounds. The later ones sometimes end quick.

Here is the challenge on this weekend's matches for the Santos vs Walker UFC fight night:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-vegas-38-10221-new-rules-5363140

buwaytress

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Big ouch for me on all fights last night, people. As you said, rdbase, almost all favs won so that itself was strange. One day I'll have to stay up on holiday to watch these live.

Lost all 3 of the highlight bets (Diaz, Murphy, Ortega) and damn, even the Modafferi @bbc.reporter haha. Not a very good omen for me doing the most bets, but I'm still in the black, and my martingale will continue next week on the underdogs;)

Worst, I didn't even take the Daukaus KO/TKO I thought was good value, and he did it in Round 2. Tsk!

rdbase

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UFC 266 ended as one of the greatest cards with the main event having the champ almost losing his title by three submission moves but manage to getting out of them some how. It was like Volkanovski was houdini if you watch it in slow motion.

The other ones it seemed like all the favorites won, which is strange for a main UFC event like this. But it happened.
Only had the very first match on my selections lost and of course the diaz and lawler match. But Nick was the underdog so I thought there would be atleast one upset on the main cards this night. Like usual.

Very exciting all in all and I did manage to watch each and every bout through and through.

bittraffic

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Quote from: rdbase on September 24, 2021, 04:09:04 AM

Here are my selections for the UFC 266 challenge from the link just above:

Quote from: rdbase on September 23, 2021, 04:42:52 AM

14) Alexander Volkanovski
13) Valentina Shevchenko
12) Nick Diaz
11) Curtis Blaydes
10) Jessica Andrade
9) Merab Dvalishvili
8 ) Dan Hooker
7) Chris Daukaus
6) Taila Santos
5) Jalin Turner
4) Manon Fiorot
3) Nick Maximov
2) Matthew Semelsberger
1) Omar Morales

These cards are getting interesting after the press conference last night.
Especially with the Nick Diaz and Robbie Lawler bout.
It is funny with the response of Diaz after a reporter asked him if he is scared to get back into the octagon from being away for so long. Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LURge0po7bU

Here is the full press conference (minus the long intermissions inbetween):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qXZOsz7G3A

None of Nicks's responses to questions made me satisfied actually. I don't know what others might think but to me, it looks like he isn't very confident about this fight, unlike Lawler. He isn't like what he used to who can talk trash because he can. Ortega doesn't always talk something of a very confident, just being himself I guess with that smiley face all the time.

Unsure about Lawler vs Diaz, maybe the odds will change tom. but I'm up for Rozenstruik, Shevchenko, and Alexander.

rdbase

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^^
I usually take one selection in my parlay to go the distance. So the pick you made is not bad.
Just watched the weigh-ins (the exiting ones after the official one) and the Diaz fight looks to be the one everyone is waiting for even though it is not a title bout. He came in with his brother Nate. Grin

If you watched their previous fight all momentum was in Nick's favor. He is an unassuming fighter because during his press conference he is pretty low beat and doesn't get involved into all the hype like his opponent Lawler has been.
But that is just his attitude when going into a fight. He does seem like a reckless fighter unlike Diaz.
Who was smooth and cool as a cucumber.

Placed a few bets on Valentina, Alexander the Great and Diaz the silent killer. Cool

Good luck to us on our bets!

buwaytress

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Haven't added anything to my main 3 bets and Modafferi which, by itself, is a record 4 matches I've put money down on for a fight week.

Eyeing a Daukaus TKO/KO win at 2.2 as well -- he's done it in 3 previous fights, all in 1st round, while his opponent Abdurakhimov (my pick) has a so-so 5-3 record, so I'm backing form here. Betting against form as a sort of hedge though is also interesting as it's 2.8 but taking this fight to the distance is a nice 2.65. Good?

rdbase

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Here are my selections for the UFC 266 challenge from the link just above:

Quote from: rdbase on September 23, 2021, 04:42:52 AM

14) Alexander Volkanovski
13) Valentina Shevchenko
12) Nick Diaz
11) Curtis Blaydes
10) Jessica Andrade
9) Merab Dvalishvili
8 ) Dan Hooker
7) Chris Daukaus
6) Taila Santos
5) Jalin Turner
4) Manon Fiorot
3) Nick Maximov
2) Matthew Semelsberger
1) Omar Morales

These cards are getting interesting after the press conference last night.
Especially with the Nick Diaz and Robbie Lawler bout.
It is funny with the response of Diaz after a reporter asked him if he is scared to get back into the octagon from being away for so long. Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LURge0po7bU

Here is the full press conference (minus the long intermissions inbetween):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qXZOsz7G3A

rdbase

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UFC Fight Night 266 is just two sleeps away this Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada!
Defending title holders with Volkanovski and Shevchenko. And Diaz asking why he's fighting Lawler and not Usman. Cheesy

What more can you ask for in a night full of fights?
Let's get it on! Grin

Here is the media day to kick off the event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcy3vxs6OSM

There is a UFC challenge for those who want to put in their picks on the winners of each bout to receive some prizes.
Follow the link below to participate as it is free to enter.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-266-multi-master-challenge-25921-new-rules-5361170

buwaytress

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 22, 2021, 02:41:46 AM

Valentina Shevchenko was not accused of staying in her division. She was a bantamweight before where the only fighter who can beat her is Amanda Nunes. I speculate of Amanda Nunes retires she can win the female bantamweight division.

Also add Roxanne Modafferi in your bets on underdogs hehehe. I speculate that she might be underestimated again by bettors and sportsbooks hehehe.

Then the commentary on Twitter misleads me, they're saying she left bantam because of Nunes and then of course there's all that talk about rematches but it doesn't look like it's headed anywhere real. But if Shevchenko really does fight til she's 50 as she says she wants to, maybe we get to see some real fights in 5 years heh.

Modafferi, you say? Done at 4.30x. Blind faith gets you everywhere sometimes, right? Wink

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 21, 2021, 07:15:59 AM

Quote from: rdbase on September 20, 2021, 12:09:28 PM

Zhu Rong took this fight easily and it showed dominating in all rounds.
Spann winning was a no contest.

Yeah, won one but lost my 2 biggest bets as the (slight) favourites took it home. Better for me, in the end, I guess, as my martingale means bigger bets and bigger wins (ha ha?).

Quote from: rdbase on September 20, 2021, 04:11:00 PM

@fiulpro About UFC 266, haven't really had a chance to really sit down and think about who I am going with yet. There is still around 4-5 days to go through each and every fight to pick our favorites to win.

I'm going to watch the odds purely, and again pick the one with slightly better ones, looking at the three highlight matches. So for me, these are my picks in bold and their respective odds:
Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega: 2.50
Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy: 11.00 -- Shevchenko's accused of staying in her division cause she just doesn't want to lose, this is the first UFC fight I've ever seen with 11/1 odds, but you know me...
Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler: 1.98

Valentina Shevchenko was not accused of staying in her division. She was a bantamweight before where the only fighter who can beat her is Amanda Nunes. I speculate if Amanda Nunes will retire Valentina will win the female bantamweight division.

Also add Roxanne Modafferi in your bets on underdogs hehehe. I speculate that she might be underestimated again by bettors and sportsbooks hehehe.

buwaytress

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Quote from: TheNineClub on September 21, 2021, 08:11:44 AM

Wait, so you're going with Ortega? I can't really see why the Odds would be in Ortega's favor. Not saying he might not win but I would go at least 60-40 in the case of Volk. I just can't bet on Ortega's unpredictability. Volk is much more straightforward (not in movement), stick to the plan doing the things he knows work for him whereas Ortega will throw everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents. Just my 2 cents.

Yes sir, I am, and he's not the favourite. I've just been doing a martingale strategy on the underdog on all the highlight bouts -- Ortega's just only slightly less favoured by the bookies this time though.

You're going to hate me but my MMA knowledge is next to non-existent, and it does seem to me a lot more coinflippy than one might imagine, So just using price boosts and betting on the one with better odds when it's almost 1:1, like in this case.

That said, Bullet has to win but at 1.08, it's a bet I'd never take. The odds (first time I've seen more than 10/1) reflect that.

TheNineClub

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 21, 2021, 07:15:59 AM

Quote from: rdbase on September 20, 2021, 12:09:28 PM

Zhu Rong took this fight easily and it showed dominating in all rounds.
Spann winning was a no contest.

Yeah, won one but lost my 2 biggest bets as the (slight) favourites took it home. Better for me, in the end, I guess, as my martingale means bigger bets and bigger wins (ha ha?).

Quote from: rdbase on September 20, 2021, 04:11:00 PM

@fiulpro About UFC 266, haven't really had a chance to really sit down and think about who I am going with yet. There is still around 4-5 days to go through each and every fight to pick our favorites to win.

I'm going to watch the odds purely, and again pick the one with slightly better ones, looking at the three highlight matches. So for me, these are my picks in bold and their respective odds:
Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega: 2.50
Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy: 11.00 -- Shevchenko's accused of staying in her division cause she just doesn't want to lose, this is the first UFC fight I've ever seen with 11/1 odds, but you know me...
Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler: 1.98

Wait, so you're going with Ortega? I can't really see why the Odds would be in Ortega's favor. Not saying he might not win but I would go at least 60-40 in the case of Volk. I just can't bet on Ortega's unpredictability. Volk is much more straightforward (not in movement), stick to the plan doing the things he knows work for him whereas Ortega will throw everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents. Just my 2 cents.

buwaytress

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Quote from: rdbase on September 20, 2021, 12:09:28 PM

Zhu Rong took this fight easily and it showed dominating in all rounds.
Spann winning was a no contest.

Yeah, won one but lost my 2 biggest bets as the (slight) favourites took it home. Better for me, in the end, I guess, as my martingale means bigger bets and bigger wins (ha ha?).

Quote from: rdbase on September 20, 2021, 04:11:00 PM

@fiulpro About UFC 266, haven't really had a chance to really sit down and think about who I am going with yet. There is still around 4-5 days to go through each and every fight to pick our favorites to win.

I'm going to watch the odds purely, and again pick the one with slightly better ones, looking at the three highlight matches. So for me, these are my picks in bold and their respective odds:
Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega: 2.50
Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy: 11.00 -- Shevchenko's accused of staying in her division cause she just doesn't want to lose, this is the first UFC fight I've ever seen with 11/1 odds, but you know me...
Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler: 1.98

agustina2

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Quote from: fiulpro on September 20, 2021, 01:42:56 PM

Just started watching UFC seriously and monitoring the way matches are working right now in 266 there are few of them like :

So who are you guys betting on ?

For me I would not bet against Alexander for sure since the guy is someone that impressed me a lot , not only did his winning streak since 2013 but at the same time his core strength, his improvement. I do think he definately have better odds for winning against Ortega .

Alexander is the favorite in that match. Betting against him will be more profitable although as usual, much risky unless they are hardcore Ortega followers. Ortega is the underdog but seeing how bookmarkers provided the odds for that match, he is not totally a fighter that can be looked down on.

The women's flyweight title bout is crazy. What I mean is, Shevchenko and Murphy have a large gap in terms of strength where the former is the most dominant. Can't understand why she is ended up against Murphy. She (or organizers) should choose someone close to her strength.

rdbase

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Quote from: notblox1 on September 20, 2021, 02:24:09 PM

Did anyone saw what happened with Devin Clark rearranged teeth after fight with Ion Cutelaba?
It was one of the worst mouth injuries I saw in UFC and I expect to see surgical operation and many months of recovery for him without fighting in octagon.
Cutelaba did this with his knee and won on by decision in all 3 rounds, and Clark is so tough that he managed to finish this fight.

https://twitter.com/espnmma/status/1439408613903245312

I watched the Hulk kneeing his face so I would imagine thats when this happened. Embarrassed

But yeah, the announcer was saying the exact same thing even before the next round started. About his teeth getting rearranged in his mouth.
It was a brutal fight but satisfying for Cutelaba to win.

@fiulpro About UFC 266, haven't really had a chance to really sit down and think about who I am going with yet. There is still around 4-5 days to go through each and every fight to pick our favorites to win.
So be sure to look out this week for the usual UFC competition when it's released so you can put your selections in early. Due to the new rule for the first one who have the same selections wins if it comes down to a tie.

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Did anyone saw what happened with Devin Clark rearranged teeth after fight with Ion Cutelaba?
It was one of the worst mouth injuries I saw in UFC and I expect to see surgical operation and many months of recovery for him without fighting in octagon.
Cutelaba did this with his knee and won on by decision in all 3 rounds, and Clark is so tough that he managed to finish this fight.

https://twitter.com/espnmma/status/1439408613903245312

fiulpro

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Quote from: rdbase on September 20, 2021, 12:09:28 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on September 18, 2021, 01:10:18 PM

Quote from: agustina2 on September 18, 2021, 03:13:12 AM

Referring to Zhu Rong, a bit of over 2-5 pounds shouldn't be a problem because after all in the actual match, they are weighing about over 10 pounds.

OK cool, that's what I thought too, so Zhu Rong should have the slight advantage. Odds haven't changed much either, from what I can see, so the oddsmakers also don't think it's of any effect. Just curious if it affects the betting patterns for anyone.

No other interesting developments I think, so leaving my bets as is and waking up to see them as usual in the morning.

Zhu Rong took this fight easily and it showed dominating in all rounds.

Spann winning was a no contest. Looked as if he didn't even show up to fight as he was choked out in the first round.
Smith was just too strong and he was on point that night. Very strong to call out his next challenger who tweeted him after his fight and he accepted a December fight live during the event.
So look out for his next fight as he wants a title shot soon.

Coming up 266. All big title fights.

Just started watching UFC seriously and monitoring the way matches are working right now in 266 there are few of them like :

So who are you guys betting on ?

For me I would not bet against Alexander for sure since the guy is someone that impressed me a lot , not only did his winning streak since 2013 but at the same time his core strength, his improvement. I do think he definately have better odds for winning against Ortega .

rdbase

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 18, 2021, 01:10:18 PM

Quote from: agustina2 on September 18, 2021, 03:13:12 AM

Referring to Zhu Rong, a bit of over 2-5 pounds shouldn't be a problem because after all in the actual match, they are weighing about over 10 pounds.

OK cool, that's what I thought too, so Zhu Rong should have the slight advantage. Odds haven't changed much either, from what I can see, so the oddsmakers also don't think it's of any effect. Just curious if it affects the betting patterns for anyone.

No other interesting developments I think, so leaving my bets as is and waking up to see them as usual in the morning.

Zhu Rong took this fight easily and it showed dominating in all rounds.

Spann winning was a no contest. Looked as if he didn't even show up to fight as he was choked out in the first round.
Smith was just too strong and he was on point that night. Very strong to call out his next challenger who tweeted him after his fight and he accepted a December fight live during the event.
So look out for his next fight as he wants a title shot soon.

Coming up 266. All big title fights.

buwaytress

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Quote from: agustina2 on September 18, 2021, 03:13:12 AM

Referring to Zhu Rong, a bit of over 2-5 pounds shouldn't be a problem because after all in the actual match, they are weighing about over 10 pounds.

OK cool, that's what I thought too, so Zhu Rong should have the slight advantage. Odds haven't changed much either, from what I can see, so the oddsmakers also don't think it's of any effect. Just curious if it affects the betting patterns for anyone.

No other interesting developments I think, so leaving my bets as is and waking up to see them as usual in the morning.

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