Topic: U.S. Contemplating Isolating Russia from SWIFT Banking System - page 3. (Read 880 times)

I think that is the reason how large countries like Russia, the chain, and Iran still dominating even after the USA sanction. They can provide foods, water, and shelter even no foreign goods have been imported to these countries.



As Lenin said "imperialism is the highest stage of capitalism" and right now we are observing that in these two countries. So I think imperialism is the higher stage capitalism and they have a close relationship between them. In imperialism and capitalism, both way capitalist gets the most of the profit by capturing and market and the natural resource of a country. Even imperialism expand these areas for capitalists than capitalism and hurt the poor. Inequality in the working sector and too much power in the center create fear among the people of that area. Though in this way infrastructure of a country developed so much because capitalist wants more money so they expand and develop industries.

In my opinion, you are right. imperialism may be more efficient for a countries infrastructure and industries developments.

Hot relationship?? Because of political interests?
Have you ever seen full-fledged hostilities, with the corpses of your friends, or just people who are not familiar to you and lived a simple, calm life? Namely, this is what the beginning of Russian aggression looked like! The capture and annexation of Crimea, and then the introduction of troops and the seizure of territories in eastern Ukraine. Shelling of peaceful villages and cities, murders, torture, kidnappings and looting. I would not want to see the same "hot" and "political interests" in your country. But in reality, this is not a declared, terrorist, predatory war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. If you read history, Russia unleashed identical wars against Moldova, Against Georgia. Pro-Russian sewers have been created everywhere by analogy with the LPR / DPR.

Indeed, the current state of relations between the two countries is very hot, due to the political interests of their respective countries. I do not think that Russia really wants to go to war with that country, because the war that will be carried out will not have a significant advantage and become an obstacle for their country to develop further. The economic conditions during the pandemic are also not good, especially at this time the alternative payment is still not perfect even though they have planned to find an alternative system for the threat posed by the US. Ukraine itself is quite sensitive to the condition of Russia which increases its war fleet. In fact, again, it is a personal Russian affair, it is natural for a country to strengthen its defense and security.

You do not understand the psychotype of Russian politicians a little. The most suitable image is "gopnik". In slang, this means such a petty, cowardly, vile, not even a bandit, but a yard hooligan. He beats and offends the weak and harmless, children, old people. Maybe from behind the fence, shout an insult to the policeman or show "fuck", and then quickly run away, hide at home, and cowardly look out the window, afraid that the policeman will come. And if a healthy, strong man catches him for hooligan behavior, and begins to "drive in" explanations why it is not necessary to do this, this "gopnik" begins to squeal, cry, ask him to forgive, and generally complain that he is being abused. If you let him go, he runs away to a safe distance, starts screaming as if he had beaten this person, but regretted it, after which he again ran away to hide home
That's exactly what the Kremlin's policy is. What they do in slang is called "chasing show-offs", but for the soul and in reality they have nothing, they bark at the USA and other countries, do petty meanness, offend, ALWAYS WEAKER countries ... I am sure that in 2022 Russia will do the following:
1. Will try to raise the degree of tension in the east of Ukraine. Perhaps even full-fledged provocations and attempts to capture new territories.
2. It will begin to systematically carry out "small" diverse terrorist attacks - from economic ones, such as shortages of gas supplies to the EU, to technological ones - cyber attacks on infrastructure facilities, communication nodes and channels, etc.
3. Most likely, it will be an attempt to unleash a new war or military conflict, for a "small victorious war" - to raise Putin's nude image. Either a series of terrorist attacks in Russia, in order to limit the protest moods within Russia itself, or in order to pass them off as the machinations of "enemies".
4. At the same time, the sanctions and the reaction of the European hydrocarbon market to the idiotic actions of the Kremlin will further aggravate the economic crisis in Russia.

If Russia gets cut out from the SWIFT,how the Russians are going to get paid for all the goods they are exporting and selling to the rest of the world?Gold,fiat cash or Bitcoin?Nah,Bitcoin is not an option.
I don't really think that Russia and the western world will go to war for Ukraine.A war means that both sides will lose and nobody is going to win.Putin is clearly bluffing against the west,because he doesn't have a plan B.
What's the plan B for Russia?Becoming China's puppet state and main supplier of fuels and raw materials,eventually becoming more and more dependent of the Chinese?
I think that Putin wants to keep all options available and he will agree to negotiate with the western world.

How do you want the West to act?

Right now, they don't have the capability to defeat Russia militarily. All they can do is to impose sanctions and embargoes. And as we have seen so far, these sanctions haven't worked in the past. As long as the oil/gas prices remain high, Putin will be able to afford invading other countries. And the replacement of Trump by Biden has actually helped in this. Biden banned fracking in federal lands and cancelled a few of the pipeline projects. And this was the main reason why the oil prices jumped from $40 per barrel during the Trump era, to the level they are now ($86 per barrel). Irrespective of what they claim, Joe Biden is the best thing that has happened to Russia in the last one decade.

It was Ronald Reagan who destroyed the USSR in late 1980s, by strategically decreasing the oil prices. The USSR ran out of money and it simply disintegrated. Trump followed the same approach, but these strategies were reversed by Biden.

They cannot and wont go into an armed conflict - I hope nobody here is trying to ignore that there is chance that such conflict ends up on a nuclear war.

The US government just spent a lot of political capital on withdrawing from Afghanistan and their finance situation is far from good. However, Russia in not the USSR. The interlock between Russian economy and Western world economy is much stronger currently and that makes the case for using economic sanctions. Putin does enjoy quite a leeway on his autocracy, however he is suffering internal problems and may feel not that secure. Economic sanctions can be as lethal as open war.

In my view, either Europe and the US act or Ukraine will become a larger and worst case of Bielorussization.

Question - do you understand the word "satellite" in relation to the state structure? Or are you just repeating the words of Russian propaganda?
I explain:
1. "a formally independent state that is under the political and economic influence of another state and enjoys its protectionism in the international arena." - this is a description of the satellite countries.
2. Ukraine, like other republics of the USSR, was OCCUPIED and FORCED attached to the USSR.
By the way, why "attached"? Part in order to get resources (the entire Trans-Urals has an indigenous population that was partially or completely destroyed). In order to have intellectual potential (scientific centers were mainly in Ukraine, Belarus, ...). That is why in 2014-2015, from the territory of Ukraine, temporarily docked by Russia (LPR / DPR), about 20 Ukrainian technological plants were exported to Russia. True, it is possible to steal a plant, but the Russians didn’t have enough sense to use it, and they couldn’t fully benefit from the stolen
Which in general is proved both by facts from past history and by facts from modern history. And as practice has shown, those who were in the occupation of the republic, where there was a change of power, and there was no Soviet-Russian version of the rulers, live perfectly, develop, and achieve excellent results.

A very peculiar point of view. Why do you think that Ukraine is a satellite of Russia? Ukraine has been a sovereign independent state for thirty years, which is completely independent of Russia. Especially now, when a hybrid war has been going on between Ukraine and Russia since 2014 after Russia seized part of the territory of Ukraine through an armed invasion and killed about 14,000 Ukrainians on the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, today in Ukraine any ties with Russia as its enemy have been reduced to a minimum.

Iran, before the Islamic Revolution, was quite a progressive country, which could be/become a very influential Asian center. But ... they decided to return to the "Stone Age", and then they decided to just start doing lawlessness. After that, all chances were lost, and now it is pointless to talk about the prospects of Iran! But Poland looks very promising, even against the backdrop of all these lockdowns and global problems due to the coronavirus. You have no idea what day Poland was in the 80s! I lived in Warsaw until 1979, and it was much better there than in the USSR, but then the destruction of the socialist economy, the collapse of the political system ... The Poles had to endure the most difficult decade, but they found strength in themselves, and now Poland is very noticeable in Europe a country with a dynamically developing economy, a good investment, and a fairly good standard of living ...

You almost got it right till the last step,  Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication , the telecommunication part is the giveaway in what SWIFT does, but as you have realized the difference is enormous when it comes to creating an alternative, it's not about demanding payments from somebody in a different coin, is making your partner's bank entering settlements with all the bans in your alternative system.

Why would they? No reason!
A ban would do that only if it has a huge outgoing and incoming volume there, but since the trade Russia has with other countries is limited, there is no need for immediate settlements, especially since bot Gazprom or Rosneft wouldn't make foreign payments.


There are still delusional poeple who claim Iran is a superpower...
And they don't realize they are on the same level as Poland.


Nope, nothing is going to happen.
While Ukraine and Belarus do have a chance because of their ties with Europe, counties in Asia have nowhere to look for a model, look at all the -stan countries and their leaders
Uzbekistan, Karimov was president from 92 till 2016 (when he died)
Tajikistan, Rahmon elected 5 times a president
Turkmenistan, Niyazov from 85 till his death, Berdimuhamedow since 2007, elected with 100%
On what model can they take from? Russia? China? There is no influence near them there is no trade no exchange of information, no nothing.
They will stay like this in the dark till the countries collapse completely.

You discussed worldwide are potential SWIFT connections and Russia's economic impact,
Well,  first you need to know what is SWIFT?
According to investopedia:
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050515/how-swift-system-works.asp

The issue of US sanctions against Russia is not new, And it is in this conflict that US President Joe Biden has called for Ukraine to be removed from Russia, And it is known that Russia may be excluded from Swift if such sanctions are imposed on Russia. However, it will have a major impact on the Russian economy.

Under all these issues there is an underlying belief from Russia or at least a large part of the Russian people that the USSR was de-facto Russia controlling all the republics under an illusion of partial decentralisation and also that now, even though the USSR does not exist as such, countries such as Ukraine and other are still a satellites of Russia and their citizens have nothing to say on regards of how they are run and how they want to play their international relations. This is a wake up call for the despots.

Well.. most of this is true. When the invasion started in 1979, the Soviet economy was in (relatively) good shape. But after a few years, the crude oil prices plummeted, and the junta was unable to subsidize the Afghan communists. At this point, they should have pulled out from Afghanistan. But they persisted for another decade or so, and stopped their intervention only in 1992. And it is not just Afghanistan. The USSR was involved in cold war conflicts around the world, including Angola, Mozambique, Sudan, Korea, Nicaragua and Rhodesia.

No one would threaten to disconnect from SWIFT if it were a simple transactional system. In fact, this is a much broader system, without which even entire segments of the economy of a country or region can simply stop working. Remember Iran? How is it "simple banking system" nearly returned Iran to the Stone Age. For Russia, this is a terrible threat, because she needs currency. No, not ayun, not your own ruble, but dollars and euros, they depend on Western technologies and goods! And they can get currency only by selling oil and gas to the developed world and to Europe, and without SWIFT this will no longer work ...

I always thought SWIFT was just a large inter Bank accounting system. So instead of transferring small amounts ..every time when there are international transactions.... the Banks collect the data from all transactions being made and then collectively balance the books for all those transactions. (A type of reconciliation for International Bank Settlements) 

Should this be the case.... then Russian businesses and Banks working with SWIFT will have to find other ways to transact with each other to do international transfers. (or alternatively transfer money to countries that are not being isolated/sanctioned) 

But - the result of these "several billions" spent was the complete degradation of the Soviet economy, we are not talking about a total drop in living standards, degradation of the community and much more, which ultimately led to the collapse of the USSR.
And the USA just printed new pieces of paper and that's it ... Do you feel the difference ?!

In case you might have forgotten what I asked you although it seems quite strange for it, it was for clarification about your previous comment:


So, either you acknowledge that the Russian ran with their tails wagging before their legs from a 30 million strong country (the same as Ukraine) or you recognize that driven by patriotism spirit for the great bankrupt red bear you've twisted facts and ended up with obvious wrong conclusions.

Oh, and since this topic is mainly about money and less about re-writing history, here is another key difference for you, 10 years since the start of the war the Soviet Union went bankrupt, the US is well past that, in one year we will see if the term after the invasions till holds but I doubt it will.
So, let's stop with stupid comparisons and look at the obvious facts, a country that without nuclear weapons doesn't matter who threatens an alliance that rules the global economy they will build a better system and everyone will join. Who? In the rhythm Russia is losing population by the time they manage to get finally a few partners there will be no Russia anymore.


Giants companies can't produce, expand and operate with 140 million poeple who earn less than half what poeple in Texas do. That's why you don't have any major Russian companies other than Rosneft and Gazprom.
Again, poeple who are driven by their hate of the US into applauding the red parade without even bothering to check reality should take a break and do so ...


Again, you don't understand how SWIFT works.
Those are not carrier pigeons that are shot down if they fly from the US to Russia and they would work if they are housed in Vladivostok and Costa Rica, the moment Russia is cut from the SWIFT off-shore won't work just isn't working for North Korea.
 

Thats terrific news. Im wondering how US took this much aggressive step while cutting them off. Though rivalries are their but banking used to be considered as backbone for any country. The main reason is businesses that runs on the import export nature has to gain the money from border based payment.

How about off shore settled companies from US to Russia and Vice versa would work? Because giant firms always need to send and receive money from their internal departments for production, expansion, operational activities and sometime salaries too.

This will literally not help USA gain anything from this. Even Russia will get affected with this but at the cost of huge losses in taxes. Now as the banking is cut off for them, the businesses may try to flee the money via black ways or under the table ways. That will cause serious consequences to US and Russia both.

I think they are forgetting that Taxes not only get generated from within the country businesses but also from the off shore businesses.

The NATO intervention in Afghanistan ended up the same way as the Soviet intervention of 1979-89. I could see hardly any differences between the two outcomes. Back in the 80s, the Russians were in control of only the major cities, while most of the rural area was under the control of the Taliban. The same happened during the NATO intervention as well. The only major difference I could notice is that Russia (i.e the former USSR) only spent a few billions of USD in Afghanistan, while the Americans wasted a few trillion $$$.