U.S dollar almost equal to Euro - page 2.

be.open

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 25, 2022, 02:18:50 AM

Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 23, 2022, 06:28:48 AM

Meanwhile, the interest in the EU is still 0.00%. Central banks deliberately destroy the value of the euro to keep the southern countries afloat, which isn't their mandate.

No. The interest in the EU is 0.5%. I'm surprised you would say that, but at least it shows that you are human and make mistakes too. Or maybe it's your mobile alt, which is not so focused.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate?continent=europe

Eurozone raises interest rates for first time in 11 years

The increase in the key rate was carried out as part of the fight against inflation, but the problem for the euro is that it does not work that way. If you want to curb inflation, you must first raise the key rate sharply to a level above the current inflation rate, and then implement a series of key rate cuts to stimulate the economy. And if you smoothly raise the key rate by a value that is obviously an order of magnitude smaller than the current inflation rate, then you only stimulate stagflation, that is, inflation growth against the backdrop of a decline in business activity. You don't need to graduate from the Higher School of Economics to understand this.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 23, 2022, 05:31:23 AM

Are you sure about that? I searched for a while, but can't find a point where it reached $0.98/EUR. It seems to be falling slow and steady, if it continues like this, it won't take long to reach $0.98/€.

It was a mistake. It was like 0.9908 or something and I miswrote it.

Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 23, 2022, 06:28:48 AM

Meanwhile, the interest in the EU is still 0.00%. Central banks deliberately destroy the value of the euro to keep the southern countries afloat, which isn't their mandate.

No. The interest in the EU is 0.5%. I'm surprised you would say that, but at least it shows that you are human and make mistakes too. Or maybe it's your mobile alt, which is not so focused.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate?continent=europe

Eurozone raises interest rates for first time in 11 years

Quote from: stompix on August 24, 2022, 05:34:20 AM

Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 24, 2022, 03:19:50 AM

There's a reason it has been called EUSSR by many people (including theymos).

I find it interesting that most of the ones calling it like that are the ones that have never actually lived a second in the actual USSR. Wink

The ones that did know this is just bs.

Yes, of course, that's an exaggeration, but I think you and I have pretty similar ideas about economic policy, although I don't think the EU's regulatory voracity is the best way to stimulate business and economic growth. I see it as very socialist, although Europe has always been more social democratic than the US for example (at least since the end of WWII).

I would not call the EU Bolshevik, but it is quite socialist.

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 23, 2022, 10:35:36 PM

The real reason why the USSR collapsed was that the "parasite" states such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan grew in population and demanded more funds and resources from the productive states such as Russia and Belarus. EU is in a similar situation. Countries with budget surplus, such as Germany and Netherlands are funding less productive states such as Poland and Greece.

I love when the guy that claims a month has 40 days and 3x7 is 30 is suddenly after being a military, politics, master historian turns to be an expert on EU economics. Of course even more amusing is that the only people really concern with these are the ones not living in the EU, and strangely rather than focusing on their own country they find fault with others, so let me get this right for you

India has exported $418 billion for the first time in its history. This is more than the target.

Poland exports for 2021 was $410.54B, a 22.47% increase from 2020.

So this parasitic less productive state of Poland with just 40 million people has managed to produce and export more than the whole of India. Now, looking at the 1:30 population ratio, how would you call "productivity" in India?

Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 24, 2022, 03:19:50 AM

There's a reason it has been called EUSSR by many people (including theymos).

I find it interesting that most of the ones calling it like that are the ones that have never actually lived a second in the actual USSR. Wink

The ones that did know this is just bs.

LoyceMobile

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 23, 2022, 10:35:36 PM

LOL.. the EU at this point reminds me of the USSR of late 1980s.

There's a reason it has been called EUSSR by many people (including theymos).

Sithara007

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Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 23, 2022, 04:51:11 PM

Short version: ECB can't increase the interest to the level it should be, because countries in the south wouldn't be able to pay their debts and risk bankruptcy.

LOL.. the EU at this point reminds me of the USSR of late 1980s. The real reason why the USSR collapsed was that the "parasite" states such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan grew in population and demanded more funds and resources from the productive states such as Russia and Belarus. EU is in a similar situation. Countries with budget surplus, such as Germany and Netherlands are funding less productive states such as Poland and Greece. And now the issue is that Germany will no longer have a budget surplus, thanks to their stupid policies in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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Short version: ECB can't increase the interest to the level it should be, because countries in the south wouldn't be able to pay their debts and risk bankruptcy.

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Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 23, 2022, 06:28:48 AM

Quote from: Jaksjol675 on August 13, 2022, 03:41:33 PM

The euro made big news in July 2022 when it fell to the same value as the US dollar for the first time in two decades. It hasn't recovered much -- after an expected dip of the dollar on Aug. 12, one euro is still only worth $1.03. That's down from $1.18 at the end of Aug. 2021, or a 12.7% drop.

Meanwhile, the interest in the EU is still 0.00%. Central banks deliberately destroy the value of the euro to keep the southern countries afloat, which isn't their mandate.

Would you care to explain what you mean by this? specially the part of "southern countries", since I am not informed enough on the economic policies within the European Union, I just get a look at the news.

Also, I thought there was a plan or the possibility to increase the interest rate in Europe was being discussed, since USA is already doing it in hopes to decrease their inflation rates, it sounds almost reckless the Eurozone is not doing something so their currency can remain competitive.

What am I missing?

takuma sato

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We've had negative interest for years, you would make money by getting into debt. This was never even acknowledged in economy books. If you went to college, teachers wouldn't teach you about this ever happening. It has happened for the last decade. Now we are going to get into a recession since they will have to go into higher interest rates. The more they delay the interest hikes, the more brutal the crash. If they do it slowly, it will be a long term recession. I think we may see a rise on the SP500 since they are scared to raise the rates. This will make the investors confident, and thus will create a massive crash. Michael Burry is right, we haven't capitulated in my book.

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Quote from: zbutterfly on August 23, 2022, 08:16:43 AM

That was thought to reduce the effects of the recession

The opposite is true: increasing interest will increase the chance of a recession. But negative interest isn't normal, and so are recessions. What's not normal, is devaluating your currency and continuously "stimulating the economy".

zbutterfly

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It's terrible. 1 dollar is almost the equivalent of 1 euro, because of the recession. The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised its key interest rate. After the first 0.5 percentage point move in July, more will follow. That was thought to reduce the effects of the recession, however, the immediate effects of a rate hike were not felt, according to IW. On the other hand, the ECB's intervention may even increase the risk of a recession. "Stagflation is a real risk in Europe," this will continue, if covid and this war passes maybe the recession in Europe will ease.

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Quote from: Jaksjol675 on August 13, 2022, 03:41:33 PM

The euro made big news in July 2022 when it fell to the same value as the US dollar for the first time in two decades. It hasn't recovered much -- after an expected dip of the dollar on Aug. 12, one euro is still only worth $1.03. That's down from $1.18 at the end of Aug. 2021, or a 12.7% drop.

I count a $0.20 drop since September 5, 2021 (from $1.19 to $0.99).

Meanwhile, the interest in the EU is still 0.00%. Central banks deliberately destroy the value of the euro to keep the southern countries afloat, which isn't their mandate.

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank

The primary objective of the European Central Bank, set out in Article 127(1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone.

Ultegra134

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 22, 2022, 08:51:45 AM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 21, 2022, 02:41:24 PM

After several weeks of the exchange rate of EUR/USD trending at $1.02, today it crashed even further and practically achieved 1:1 parity. It's currently at $1.0037/€ and wouldn't be surprised if it went even further below. A few weeks ago, some users mentioned that we could also see Euro falling below $1 but many of us thought that it was too extreme. I hope we're not proved wrong.

Today it went down breaking parity. A moment ago it was at $0.98 per euro.

We will see how it turns out. In principle, many things will be more expensive for Europeans in the Euro zone, starting with the fact that raw materials are paid in dollars and this has repercussions on the rest of the chain.

As in everything else, those who have investments will be spared or will not notice it so much, because apart from the fact that well-made investments give returns higher than inflation, those who have a fund indexed to the S&P 500 or the MSCI World will benefit from this rise of the dollar against the euro.

Are you sure about that? I searched for a while, but can't find a point where it reached $0.98/EUR. It seems to be falling slow and steady, if it continues like this, it won't take long to reach $0.98/€. It's currently trending at $0.9916/€, while previous user's predictions about reaching $0.90 - $0.95 sound way too realistic now. If that happens, we're bound to see an increase in fuel again, which will spark an additional row of price increases to everyday goods, boosting inflation once again.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 21, 2022, 02:41:24 PM

After several weeks of the exchange rate of EUR/USD trending at $1.02, today it crashed even further and practically achieved 1:1 parity. It's currently at $1.0037/€ and wouldn't be surprised if it went even further below. A few weeks ago, some users mentioned that we could also see Euro falling below $1 but many of us thought that it was too extreme. I hope we're not proved wrong.

The more countries that dump US dollar as trade/reserve currency the more Euro is going to dump! It's based on the fact that dumping US dollar sends back trillions of dollars that were printed without anything backing them that will cause high inflation and weaken US dollar.
But they were sneaky enough to find ways to export that inflation, where is better than Europe to export it hence the dumping Euro.

On top of that we have Europe's economy that depends on energy prices being low and their services being bought. Energy prices are rising and they are losing customers for their service-based economy. Obviously Euro loses value.
1 more month and the temperature will start dropping too while energy crisis worsens in Europe. We can easily expect a much lower exchange rate.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 21, 2022, 02:41:24 PM

After several weeks of the exchange rate of EUR/USD trending at $1.02, today it crashed even further and practically achieved 1:1 parity. It's currently at $1.0037/€ and wouldn't be surprised if it went even further below. A few weeks ago, some users mentioned that we could also see Euro falling below $1 but many of us thought that it was too extreme. I hope we're not proved wrong.

Today it went down breaking parity. A moment ago it was at $0.98 per euro.

We will see how it turns out. In principle, many things will be more expensive for Europeans in the Euro zone, starting with the fact that raw materials are paid in dollars and this has repercussions on the rest of the chain.

As in everything else, those who have investments will be spared or will not notice it so much, because apart from the fact that well-made investments give returns higher than inflation, those who have a fund indexed to the S&P 500 or the MSCI World will benefit from this rise of the dollar against the euro.

Ultegra134

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After several weeks of the exchange rate of EUR/USD trending at $1.02, today it crashed even further and practically achieved 1:1 parity. It's currently at $1.0037/€ and wouldn't be surprised if it went even further below. A few weeks ago, some users mentioned that we could also see Euro falling below $1 but many of us thought that it was too extreme. I hope we're not proved wrong.

Jaksjol675

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The euro made big news in July 2022 when it fell to the same value as the US dollar for the first time in two decades. It hasn't recovered much -- after an expected dip of the dollar on Aug. 12, one euro is still only worth $1.03. That's down from $1.18 at the end of Aug. 2021, or a 12.7% drop.

It's not simply that the euro's falling, however. The dollar has been rising due to higher interest rates and global economic uncertainties such as the war in Ukraine.

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Quote

The crisis that occurred in Europe makes the value of the euro continue to decline, not only on dollars with local currency in my country euro also drops more than 8% compared to the end of 2021, of course this is a serious problem for the European economy, if it continues to decline then it can be ascertained long -term economic recession.

I think, Europe government is seriously working to end the crisis that is affecting their economy and other things in the country. Europe are still struggle to recover what COVID-19 has caused in their financial assets that is making their citizens not to make enough income from their investments, which is causing their government pain to do everything possible within their power to improve their economy before the end of this year 2022. I don't think, this economy depreciation will continue in Europe because their government is planning to print more money that will make the economy to increase higher.

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Quote from: Mario Yamasaki on August 10, 2022, 01:06:49 AM

this is an indication that the British decision not to join the European economy is the right decision

You should have looked at the British Pound's exchange rate before making this statement. Both GBP and EUR are dumping identically (both about -3% in past month). In fact this is the main reason why the English government fell apart and Johnson was kicked out of office. Brexit failed to achieve its goals.

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I do not understand why the Euro value continues to decline, not only corrections to the USD but almost all currencies, this is an indication that the British decision not to join the European economy is the right decision, it must be recognized after Europe uses a single currency.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: stompix on August 08, 2022, 11:40:08 PM

Furthermore, at this point, I don't understand what are we even debating, my first post was clear,

Neither do I.

Quote from: stompix on August 08, 2022, 11:40:08 PM

So right now, from the crisis, people losing their jobs, gloom, and doom you're last defense is that we're at just 90% from pre covid levels?

No. That the Spanish government says we will be at 90% of pre-covid levels. There is an important difference in nuance. Look at the economic predictions made by the Spanish government and see if it has got any of them right.

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 08, 2022, 11:13:42 PM

You don't like data at hand but you think 20 years in the future and you say it's definitely bleak.

The data at hand shows that over the last 20 years the performance of the Euro Stoxx 50 is laughable compared to the S&P 500. I don't know what you are talking about when you have the data in front of you and you don't pay attention to it.

I have no reason to believe that the next 20 years will reverse the situation shown in the data. That's the point.

And another thing coming back to the main point of the thread. The euro has not only weakened against the dollar. It has weakened against most of the major benchmark currencies as well. Look at the data against the GBP, the Swiss Franc or even the Yuan.

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