U.S dollar almost equal to Euro - page 3.

stompix

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 09, 2022, 12:13:42 AM

Hey man, have you read the article? Yeah, increasing numbers of occupancy compared to the 2020 and 2021. And yet:

Quote

Spain's government expects tourist arrivals to reach 90% of pre-pandemic volumes during the summer season,

So right now, from the crisis, people losing their jobs, gloom, and doom you're last defense is that we're at just 90% from pre covid levels?
Lowering the bar much? Grin

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 09, 2022, 12:13:42 AM

If you mean that the situation is not catastrophic as you said before, we agree on that.
Do you see the future looking very bright with rising energy costs and the regulatory tangle in Europe?
Have you seen the evolution of the Euro Stoxx 50 versus the S&P 500 over the last 20 years? Do you think the next 20 years will be better for us?

Ok, I've got it.
You don't like data at hand but you think 20 years in the future and you say it's definitely bleak.

Furthermore, at this point, I don't understand what are we even debating, my first post was clear, I asked paxmao if he is sure who has the flu and the cold, I've never said one could run the marathon and the other has cancer, and you only argued about not believing statistics.
If you don't believe any number cause is coming from the evil gubbermint that banned tinfoil hats, then how would it be possible for me to convince you of the opposite? At this point there is no way, I can throw any data at you and you will say no it's not good, so all that it's left is to wait for 20 years and see who was right and who was wrong.

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Quote from: stompix on August 08, 2022, 06:12:32 AM

Not isolated data, overall data!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-edges-closer-pre-pandemic-tourism-levels-with-75-mln-visitors-june-2022-08-02/

Covers everything you have tried to deny as an indicator, from the amount of spending money per person increasing to overall numbers of occupancy. Next? Don't you see that you want everything to be bleak as you are trying to find fault in everything good?
Do you see how you dismissed my claim about tourism without bothering to check the numbers or anything else and then you claim you don't trust things, how can you be so bent on not trusting things others say when you don't verify your own beliefs?

Hey man, have you read the article? Yeah, increasing numbers of occupancy compared to the 2020 and 2021. And yet:

Quote from: stompix on August 08, 2022, 06:12:32 AM

I've already told you I'm not looking at the unemployment rate that can be manipulated in one hundred ways.
What I'm looking is the employment rate which simply means one thing, people who work versus all of the population capable of working.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Employment_-_annual_statistics

Yes, this indicator is more reliable than the one usually used in Spain, which is the unemployment figure.

If you mean that the situation is not catastrophic as you said before, we agree on that.

Do you see the future looking very bright with rising energy costs and the regulatory tangle in Europe?

Have you seen the evolution of the Euro Stoxx 50 versus the S&P 500 over the last 20 years? Do you think the next 20 years will be better for us?

Although after the last bill passed by the US Senate, I don't see much stimulation of economic activity there, but perhaps that's what the planet needs:

US Senate approves Biden’s climate and tax bill: ‘This is going to change America for decades’

stompix

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 08, 2022, 05:19:01 AM

The unemployment rate

And why are mentioning this?
I've already told you I'm not looking at the unemployment rate that can be manipulated in one hundred ways.
What I'm looking is the employment rate which simply means one thing, people who work versus all of the population capable of working.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Employment_-_annual_statistics

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 08, 2022, 05:19:01 AM

We are back to the same thing. Isolated data does not indicate anything.

Not isolated data, overall data!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-edges-closer-pre-pandemic-tourism-levels-with-75-mln-visitors-june-2022-08-02/

Covers everything you have tried to deny as an indicator, from the amount of spending money per person increasing to overall numbers of occupancy. Next? Don't you see that you want everything to be bleak as you are trying to find fault in everything good?
Do you see how you dismissed my claim about tourism without bothering to check the numbers or anything else and then you claim you don't trust things, how can you be so bent on not trusting things others say when you don't verify your own beliefs?

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Quote from: stompix on August 08, 2022, 04:26:36 AM

And if you're from Europe you can't possibly deny that everyone is hiring and nobody has enough workers right now, it's not a crisis where people can't find a job, everywhere you go there is a job opening.

The unemployment rate in Spain is around 12.5%, which for Spain is not bad, but it must be taken into account that the current government made a reform on some type of job contracts (fijos discontinuos) that allows some people to be counted as working for the whole year when in reality they only work for a few months.

Nor is someone who is unemployed and does some training useless courses counted as unemployed, and there are other examples like this that show that the unemployment rate has a lot of statistical make-up. I'm not just saying in the case of this government. Statistical make-up to mask the pathetic state of the labour market in Spain has been used by various governments over the years.

That's why, among other things, I say that I don't trust statistics.

Quote from: stompix on August 08, 2022, 04:26:36 AM

You're from Spain, are your beaches empty? Are the hotels empty? Or do you see surging numbers of tourists partying all night?

We are back to the same thing. Isolated data does not indicate anything. Hotel occupancy as a % is an indication, but it is no good having a hotel occupancy rate similar to the average if spending per tourist is significantly lower, to give an example. You can go to the beach without spending a euro, you take the car, a towel and a cooler for drinks and food. So full beaches are not a reliable indicator of good economic activity either.

sehishei

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Affected by headwinds such as high energy prices and deteriorating global terms of trade, the euro faces further inflationary pressures, while the euro zone's economic growth prospects are weakened. And expectations of faster and bigger Fed rate hikes boosted the dollar.

stompix

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 08, 2022, 03:48:37 AM

I think you are very optimistic with these statistics. Personally, I have little confidence in statistics, as it is not unusual to see two economists arguing the opposite on the basis of statistics, sometimes on the basis of the same studies.

If you have little confidence in statistics then what do you believe?
Random twitter accounts that have predicted 100 crashes, war nuclear destructions, and famine? Or let me quote :

Quote from: gentlemand on June 25, 2020, 05:15:38 AM

Same goes for Zerohedge, the site that predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions.

The data is there, it's no statistics that can be misinterpreted in both ways, like for example unemployment in Belarus, where of course nobody signs up for unemployment benefits because they pay 2$ a month. This is an actual number of people employed, with contracts with wages.

And if you're from Europe you can't possibly deny that everyone is hiring and nobody has enough workers right now, it's not a crisis where people can't find a job, everywhere you go there is a job opening.
You're from Spain, are your beaches empty? Are the hotels empty? Or do you see surging numbers of tourists partying all night?

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on August 08, 2022, 03:48:37 AM

For example, I think it is positive that in Europe there is less difference between rich and poor, but I don't think that the situation in Europe at the moment is something to boast about. And I hope I'm wrong, but the future looks bleak.

I'm not boasting about anything, I'm just saying that despite all the doomsday rumors spreading around here, where everything in the economy is going to collapse since we need the world to be destroyed in order for Bitcoin to thrive on our corpses, things are not that bad!
Of course, they could be far better, but it's nowhere near the level some want to paint.

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Quote from: stompix on August 08, 2022, 03:31:34 AM

I don't see how it is very clear
The US GDP has gone down 1.6 in Q1 and again 0.9 in Q2, EU's GDP has grown by 0.6 and 0.7 in the first part of this year.
If we look at employment the US has a labor force participation rate of 62.1%, below the 63.4% before the Covid disruption, Eu has reached a record of 74.30%, and since it's a record it's obviously above 2019.

So, who has the flu and who has a cold?

I think you are very optimistic with these statistics. Personally, I have little confidence in statistics, as it is not unusual to see two economists arguing the opposite on the basis of statistics, sometimes on the basis of the same studies.

Apart from the fact that in these cases I always remember the personal text of DdmrDdmr:

Quote

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

There are better things in Europe than in the US, obviously. For example, I think it is positive that in Europe there is less difference between rich and poor, but I don't think that the situation in Europe at the moment is something to boast about. And I hope I'm wrong, but the future looks bleak.

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Quote from: paxmao on August 04, 2022, 08:45:57 PM

Let's see how the USD behaves during next year, but it is very clear that the US economy has come out of the covid with just a bit of a cold meanwhile the EU economy has come out with a full blown flu. The jobs market in the US is extremely strong, and despite a technical recession, there is not a translation into the public confidence... inflation is high because people keep spending like crazyl

I don't see how it is very clear
The US GDP has gone down 1.6 in Q1 and again 0.9 in Q2, EU's GDP has grown by 0.6 and 0.7 in the first part of this year.
If we look at employment the US has a labor force participation rate of 62.1%, below the 63.4% before the Covid disruption, Eu has reached a record of 74.30%, and since it's a record it's obviously above 2019.

So, who has the flu and who has a cold?

paxmao

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Let's see how the USD behaves during next year, but it is very clear that the US economy has come out of the covid with just a bit of a cold meanwhile the EU economy has come out with a full blown flu. The jobs market in the US is extremely strong, and despite a technical recession, there is not a translation into the public confidence... inflation is high because people keep spending like crazyl

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Quote from: sana54210 on August 02, 2022, 09:25:53 AM

Quote from: ven7net on August 01, 2022, 07:20:07 AM

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

USA could be in trouble eventually, but the fact that Europe is a whole continent and the nations that are using euro are not all single entity. Meaning if we are dealing with this right now, that means we are not going to be shocked when Germany fails to pay for the debts of Greece or something like that again. We have known for a while now Germany has been fixing the problems all over every nation that uses euro, and France tries to not create too much trouble for anyone, but there are like a dozen nations that is failing and because of that euro is failing as well and now that Germany can't make a surplus, they can't reach out and help everyone all at once.

Since when is Germany saving other countries from the goodness of their heart? Are you serious? Germany made billions, profiting from Greece's financial crisis. The ECB is responsible for the state of many countries in Europe, including Italy, Greece, Spain and so on. Not to mention that Germany still owes war reparations since World War 2.

No one is saving anyone, it's all done for profit, Greece and many other countries should have never joined the Eurozone, it was a terrible mistake.

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Quote from: sana54210 on August 02, 2022, 09:25:53 AM

Quote from: ven7net on August 01, 2022, 07:20:07 AM

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

USA could be in trouble eventually, but the fact that Europe is a whole continent and the nations that are using euro are not all single entity. Meaning if we are dealing with this right now, that means we are not going to be shocked when Germany fails to pay for the debts of Greece or something like that again. We have known for a while now Germany has been fixing the problems all over every nation that uses euro, and France tries to not create too much trouble for anyone, but there are like a dozen nations that is failing and because of that euro is failing as well and now that Germany can't make a surplus, they can't reach out and help everyone all at once.

USA is big enough to be like Europe continent as well. The difference is that instead of nations, they have states and each state is managed by itself aside from federal law. Meaning that while California is paying a ton more taxes and getting a lot less in return by federal government, alamaba would be paying nearly not enough and then get a ton of federal help.

If we were to tell alabama to collect their own taxes and live, they will bankrupt in a minute, which is the same situation. Maybe Germany bankrolled Europe so far, but California and New York type of places bankrolled many states so far as well. If USA can survive that way, Europe could survive the same way as well.

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Quote from: ven7net on August 01, 2022, 07:20:07 AM

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

USA could be in trouble eventually, but the fact that Europe is a whole continent and the nations that are using euro are not all single entity. Meaning if we are dealing with this right now, that means we are not going to be shocked when Germany fails to pay for the debts of Greece or something like that again. We have known for a while now Germany has been fixing the problems all over every nation that uses euro, and France tries to not create too much trouble for anyone, but there are like a dozen nations that is failing and because of that euro is failing as well and now that Germany can't make a surplus, they can't reach out and help everyone all at once.

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Quote from: ven7net on August 01, 2022, 07:20:07 AM

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

As long as EU is doing stupid mistake of boycotting cheap Russian gas rather buying expensive USA LNG they are deemed for destruction. There is energy crisis be expected in few months. Meanwhile Russia is selling his oil to New markets found in China and India.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on July 08, 2022, 07:23:54 AM

For the first time in 20 years, the U.S. dollar has been surging so much that the Euro sinks towards parity with the Dollar, currently trading at €1/$1.01, being almost equal. This is a threat to both Europe and USA, since imports are now much more costly for Europe. The exchange rate is also driving oil prices up, since purchasing a barrel of oil valued at $100, now costs €98-99 for Europe, while a few months ago, the same barrel would cost €80-90 at most.

Goldman Sachs warned that the Eurozone is on the edge of recession, especially with Russia's decision to cut CNG supplies to Europe, resulting in huge surges in prices. While the war in Ukraine hasn't affected USA as much as it has Europe, it has magnified oil and gas prices, punishing European consumers with the surging living costs.

What are your thoughts? Will Euro's value fall lower than the U.S. Dollar? One thing is certain though, we're going to go through a tough time in the very near future.
Sources:
https://fortune.com/2022/07/07/us-dollar-euro-nearly-equal-value-economy-inflation/
https://www.ft.com/content/48c7041f-1fa4-42ee-99f6-4a5955668fb6

Edit: Thanks LoyceMobile, I meant to say that U.S. exports are much more costly for Europe, bad phrasing.

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

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Quote from: Ahli38 on August 01, 2022, 01:06:33 AM

The US dollar strengthened slightly and the euro continued to weaken. Inflation and global recession continue to worsen all sectors of the economy in various countries and the eurozone is under pressure from this and even the weakening of the euro is also caused by one of the factors, such as increasing concerns about the possibility of a recession in 19 eurozone countries. even according to some surveys found that business growth in the euro zone is slowing down. and that could cause the entire region to fall into recession. and many other factors as mentioned by other members above.

1 usd = 0.98$

Usd is one of best performing currency these days thanks to stupid moves by Europe of boycotting cheap Russian gas. While usa is the biggest beneficiary of ukarine war while loosers are EU along ukarine and Russia. EU and Russia must sit and find a peaceful solution.

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The US dollar strengthened slightly and the euro continued to weaken. Inflation and global recession continue to worsen all sectors of the economy in various countries and the eurozone is under pressure from this and even the weakening of the euro is also caused by one of the factors, such as increasing concerns about the possibility of a recession in 19 eurozone countries. even according to some surveys found that business growth in the euro zone is slowing down. and that could cause the entire region to fall into recession. and many other factors as mentioned by other members above.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on July 30, 2022, 09:35:51 AM

Oil has been extremely volatile the past few days, Brent Oil was worth $110/barrel yesterday afternoon and a few hours later it had crashed to $104, quite a difference. Can't understand what caused such a drop. While gas prices have slightly dropped, it's still too expensive for the average consumer. On top of that, the current rate of exchange of EUR/USD is trending at $1.02/€, increasing the fueling costs even further.
Edit: Grammar

This oil and gas problem is putting the whole world in so much trouble.
We are all at the verge of nervous breakdown due to inflation and trouble COVID and Ukraine war has created.

Ultegra134

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Oil has been extremely volatile the past few days, Brent Oil was worth $110/barrel yesterday afternoon and a few hours later it had crashed to $104, quite a difference. Can't understand what caused such a drop. While gas prices have slightly dropped, it's still too expensive for the average consumer. On top of that, the current rate of exchange of EUR/USD is trending at $1.02/€, increasing the fueling costs even further.
Edit: Grammar

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Quote from: Cookdata on July 28, 2022, 10:43:29 AM

Quote from: TLJSK05 on July 25, 2022, 09:14:59 PM

good news for us dollar! this is interesting. Dollar had been much lower than Euros for the past decade i think.

Does this mean bullish run is coming soon??

This is not good news my friend. When I was still in Jr school, I remember always watching the UK news channel and I was influenced by their currency to the point that anytime I hear arguments between Euro and Dollar, I always volunteer until I beat the opponent, the joy was there till this moment it loses it parity with dollar due to ongoing crisis that is going on right now in the UK. There is the Food crisis, high inflation and recession and isn't helping and this has helped me understand what has been holding the Euro all this while.

Theoretically, this should be bullish for bitcoin but the same factor is making investors sell their assets to prepare for the worst, nobody wants to stay hungry during the food crisis in a recession.

What if Russia starts trading oil and gas in Ruble. I think Russia is not scared of sanction and ban. They know they have power and they can go to any extreme to bring back their power. They have the most Nukes and they can fight any superpower - let's not take Russia easy.

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Quote from: TLJSK05 on July 25, 2022, 09:14:59 PM

good news for us dollar! this is interesting. Dollar had been much lower than Euros for the past decade i think.

Does this mean bullish run is coming soon??

This is not good news my friend. When I was still in Jr school, I remember always watching the UK news channel and I was influenced by their currency to the point that anytime I hear arguments between Euro and Dollar, I always volunteer until I beat the opponent, the joy was there till this moment it loses it parity with dollar due to ongoing crisis that is going on right now in the UK. There is the Food crisis, high inflation and recession and isn't helping and this has helped me understand what has been holding the Euro all this while.

Theoretically, this should be bullish for bitcoin but the same factor is making investors sell their assets to prepare for the worst, nobody wants to stay hungry during the food crisis in a recession.

Topic: U.S dollar almost equal to Euro - page 3. (Read 1470 times)