And everything indicates that it will continue to fall, if the ECB does nothing, which it looks like it will not do, at least until after the summer. In reality, the ECB is breaking its core mandate to control inflation, but it is at a crossroads because with the current monetary policy it does not control inflation, but directly encourages it. However, acting to stop it could end in an economic disaster that would start with the countries of southern Europe, so it is in a catch-22 situation.
And for a time it will be a good move if they stay silent.
Trying to prop the currency right now is just a waste of time and money, and not everyone wants a powerful euro, what the ECB is waiting is for is the gap in inflation growth that will happen sooner or later this year and for the obvious demand destruction that will come probably late autumn.
That is the moment when, if the consensus is that a stronger Euro is needed the ECB will act, but if they do this soon it will be way too costly and with poor results, so better let it slide for a while and focus on the growth of exports and demand destruction in imports which was a thorn already in European's economy.
All articles tend to point a new rate hike no sooner than September and in my opinion, they shouldn't move sooner than that.
There it is: parity! Euro dropped 19% in a year, and interest is still negative. It's almost as if there's a limit on how much BRRR a central bank can do without destroying the currency.
But it's against the $, and if we have a printing contest the US would win by one hell of a margin.
So, why isn't the opposite happening?