Topic: USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020: Michael Moore says Trump on course to win ! - page 2. (Read 970 times)

Polls have limited accuracy, they predict people's intention to vote but they predict it at the moment the question is posed. Not only that, but also based on the outcome of a poll, people's intetion to vote changes, therefore, polls may affect the outcome of the elections. Right now, Trump is losing badly in the polls so what will the Trump supporters do? They will make sure they won't miss out on voting, and some of the Democrats may relax and consider to skip voting, especially if they plan on doing it in the last minute and come across some long lines.

Whoa, this is a real well thought out post here that I'd have to say I agree with.

I think the Republican party (not republican voters) has been fixated on the stock market which is not something that everyday people care about. Continuing to talk about how the market is reaching new highs is not something that people who lost their jobs in Pennsylvania, West Virgina, Michigan, etc. Stock prices going up doesn't change the fact that coal jobs are most likely gone, manufacturing too (esp auto), etc.

That doesn't even take into account Corona, which has killed so many peoples lives while the stock market is doing just fine.

But yes. It's the economy stupid. AND THE REAL ECONOMY, not the stock market.

I think a lot comes back to the saying "it's the economy stupid" I'll add it's also about the money. There were another 900k +/- people filing for unemployment this week. A lot of people are seeing their jobs leaving and not coming back.

The people who were doing well, had $$$ in the bank and a secure job and skills to get another one are fine. But, there are a lot of people who are seeing their unemployment run out, having to worry about how they are going to pay for food and other things and accurately or not blaming the current administration.

I also said it a while back, with the changes to the SALT deduction there were a lot of people, outside of what people considered the "blue cities" with high taxes that took a big hit.

I have a good friend who has been a 100% Republican line voter over since 1988 voted 100% democratic in 2018 and is going to do it again in 2020. The entire community where he lives in a solid red state is now blue and that says something. Why? because it's all large private land owners. Even at dirt cheap property tax rates, due to the large plots of land they all own it was still a big number they they could write off. Now they can't and it hurt. $5 an acre for unimproved land in taxes is nothing. Until every plot is miles and miles on each side. The surrounding area also used to be red was purple in 2018, going to be interesting to see how 2020 turns out there.

Just my view.

-Dave

Here is the one really got me thinking, a Fox News poll puts Biden way ahead of Trump 53% to 42%, even Fox News think unless something drastic changes that moves momentum towards Trump and the GOP, it will be Biden and Harris that will walk in to the White House: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-trump-poll-lead-wall-street-journal

Why that user would claim an 80% chance of Trump getting re-elected is way beyond me. I agree that pollsters were wrong about Trump/Clinton in 2016 as well as Brexit and so on but this one the way things are going will be a big surprise if Trump gets re-elected. Biden and the Democrats are not doing anything special to pull voters to him, it is Trump that is doing damage to his own campaign by pushing voters way from him and the Republicans.

Yeah that prediction is literally straight out of his ass. I understand that MANY people are saying 'well the polls were wrong for Brexit, and the polls were wrong in 2016, so the polls still don't matter' - I personally just don't think that line of thinking is going to be true.

You'd think that pollsters would be more cautious and learn from their mistakes in 2016 to ensure that it won't happen again. Cause if they failed AGAIN then we'd never even look at a poll as meaning anything. Plus, this isn't like one poll saying that Trump is going to lose -- it's tons of polls in aggregate. Also they're not just national polls, they're state polls from states that Trump needs to win to win the EC.

I'll agree with you in saying that Trump may be able to pull this around, though I wouldn't just randomly spit out numbers and say that is the chance that Trump wins without any backing.

How did you conclude he has an 80% chance of re-election? Did you get that information online? I ask because every single poll from any  reputable source is showing Trump will lose the election.

It could be 30% as I said, it seems fair to me. Some people have too much money to invest, so they will invest, no matter what. In part because of all the money printing going on, that isn't going in the hands of the people needing it the most.

Investing in India is scary. If some money is diverted there, it's not a problem, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that more money is invested from India to the US than the reverse.

US citizens still have to pay taxes on investments in other countries. I assume it's the same for the UK.

If there is 60% tax on capital gains, then who is going to invest in stocks and real estate? For the rich, nowadays it is very easy to purchase passports from smaller nations such as Dominica and Antigua. This allows them to invest in stock markets outside their nation with relative ease. Only the middle-class will get affected by this sky-high tax rate.

Just to give an example, the capital gains tax in India is 10%. And the Indian stock markets have performed at the same level, or even better when compared to the stock markets in US or the UK in recent times. So what prevents the rich from moving their assets form the US/UK to countries such as India?

Capital gains tax in my country used to be the same as income tax, with a cherry on top, so about 60%. 23,8% is nothing in comparison. It has now been lowered to 30% and most concerned people find it's a good compromise (hardcore leftists are unhappy of course). For small investors (most people) as long as you use a special account the tax is 0%, the account can be filled up to 150000€ and you need to wait 8 years before getting money out to have the 0% tax.

15% in the US for multi millionaires and billionaires is clearly too low, even they are starting to say it out loud. They're basically hoarding all the cash the state is printing, with zero benefit to the economy or the common people.

All that graph says is that Money Printer went Brrr during certain periods. If you have the Fed go reckless and print tons of paper money with nothing to back it of course people are going to shovel it into stocks. PE ratios going up 2 to 3x what they were in the past doesn't mean economic growth, it means exuberance with no basis in reality.

The measure of success from an economic engine is GDP and quality of life. Quality of Life is very hard to measure. GDP is much more calculable.

Many people believe that Trump is will not win the election, but if you look a the scene he has the balls on his hands to play, he is a very smart man and a hardcore businessman that will do almost everything to success. I see him with 80% chances of winning again. History repeats itself.

Whoever told you that is a lying liar.
Dow Jones growth for last 4 presidents by months in office:


https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president

Pretty crazy considering everything the president has said about the market huh?

Obama was good for non-Americans, but he was a disaster for the American economy. His socialist policies wrecked the stock market and he increased the long-term capital gains tax from 15% to 23.8% (one of the highest rates across the globe). The federal debt ballooned by a massive $9 trillion during his 8 year term (remember that GW Bush with his Iraq war could add only $4 trillion during his 8-years). And also, his foreign policy was amateurish, with ISIS and other terrorist organizations being able to spread their power.

Trump 2024, if it takes a Limited Con-Con to make it happen.

it is just different type of a person, that was liked all around the world, because he is nice to see and hear, Trump has different nature, like to sworn, attack other people, and most of people do not like this, so it is not that liked

that being said, i do not think that Trump will lose the elections, he is targeting people in countries that will decide the elections, do not care about countries that are always for democrats/republicans, and do not care about anything else than to win the elections at the moment, which could not be said as bad for a politician, while Biden is trying to stay relevant on all subjects and will maybe won more votes, but lose the elections

Obama was liked in Europe, W Bush wasn't. US Republicans in general are not liked in Europe, however Trump is at another level, it's hatred not just dislike.

The idea that Europe influences US politics is preposterous. Yes some Democratic politicians are today advocating for European style things like universal healthcare and free/cheap higher education, simply because these things work very well in Europe, nobody is complaining about them. In fact even in the US plenty of people complaining about Obamacare and wanting it destroyed are on Obamacare...

When I say Obama was liked in Europe, I mean as a US president. He did nothing for Europe, he didn't really care. But he wasn't antagonistic like Trump is, going against everybody.

Certainly in the past Europe has had a huge impact on the US. At present, though? I'm not convinced. I think you are downplaying the importance and strength of the US here. Everyone in the world always has eyes on the US as the leading Western nation, and more so since the rise of China as a second superpower. The US stands by itself, and Europe, particularly the UK, follows along behind on the path the US sets.

But it is important - for anything - to view it from the outside as well. I'm not trying to use those surveys to belittle Trump, I'm simply highlighting the disparity between how Trump is viewed in Europe, and how he's viewed inside the US, and suggesting reasons for the huge difference. I do think the primary reason is his isolationism and withdrawing the US from its role as a global leader. Europe since WW2 has become accustomed to having the US as its defender; the future is now less certain. Xenophobia is on the rise everywhere, as is racism. The US may be retreating from the world stage, but it has lost none of its internal power, and its power to lead and influence other nations. What the US does doesn't just affect the US, it affects everyone.

Many of the problems the US has had in the past, and to some fair extent the current issues including the violence, are due to direct influences of your European Fabian-socialists or indirect influences of them. 

If you'd get your international meddlers out of the US, and in particular out of the US Democratic party, you'd see much less crazy here.

As for Euro-opinions of Trump you know a choice place or two where those can go.

I'm just going to throw these in for some wider perspective on how the election is viewed from outside the US. It's a summary of surveys from individual countries, but tells a consistent story. 1000+ participants in each, so fairly small... but consistent.
It's interesting how the view of both Trump and the election itself are hugely negative across Europe. It indicates I think that Trump is viewed as a leader who is bad for Europe, rather than that he's bad for the US. Probably due in large part to his revival of US isolationism, but perhaps also indicative of some pro-Trump media bias within the US. The lack of faith in the fairness of the election process in the foremost western democratic nation is quite shocking.





_{https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/08/minority-of-europeans-think-us-election-will-be-free-and-fair-poll}