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Topic: USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020: Michael Moore says Trump on course to win ! - page 4. (Read 970 times)

legendary
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When all the polls were forecasting a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, it was Michael Moore that said Trump would win.

And now Michael Moore is saying that the left and the anti-Trump voters have taken it for granted they will vote Trump out of office therefore he is warning of an even bigger win for Trump than he did in 2016 unless those people actually ensure they vote.

The first television debate between Trump and Biden will be interesting. I think Biden will struggle because he seems to be coming across as fragile, frail. Trump will probably walk all over Biden in the television debate even though he would have the opportunity to use the whole tax returns drama against Trump. I think Biden will probably fail to capitalise.

What does Michael Moore know that we don't know? I don't think he is a credible source for predictions. We all know Michael Moore has a  political agenda himself. I wouldn't bet on his recommendations. At the moment it still looks pretty close between Trump and Biden, the election could go either way. Maybe best to wait for the TV debates.
hero member
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What does Michael Moore know that we don't know? I don't think he is a credible source for predictions. We all know Michael Moore has a  political agenda himself. I wouldn't bet on his recommendations. At the moment it still looks pretty close between Trump and Biden, the election could go either way. Maybe best to wait for the TV debates.
legendary
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I never looked at it from that perspective before. He does seem to be obsessed with using brute force to quell protests.

We know who is obsessed with guns and ammo... Well, except for Trump, apparently he hates guns : https://news.yahoo.com/michael-cohen-reveals-trump-hates-083500509.html

Obsessed with using brute force to quell protests?

Not exactly what's occurred here in the USA.
legendary
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I never looked at it from that perspective before. He does seem to be obsessed with using brute force to quell protests.

We know who is obsessed with guns and ammo... Well, except for Trump, apparently he hates guns : https://news.yahoo.com/michael-cohen-reveals-trump-hates-083500509.html
hero member
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We know who is obsessed with guns and ammo... Well, except for Trump, apparently he hates guns : https://news.yahoo.com/michael-cohen-reveals-trump-hates-083500509.html
legendary
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First of all there will not be a civil war in the USA based on disputed Presidential election results.

Secondly, why blame a hypothetical civil war on the left? Will the right be completely innocent if anything like a civil war prevailed?


What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"

That is quite usual in the left. In fact, that is how Lenin came to power.
legendary
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So is the cool thing, from the media, for everyone to say that Trump is going to win? Guess the 2016 'Trump is TOTALLY going to lose' is something that backfired, and now makes everyone who said it seem dumb. So as a reverse of that, all of them are now trying to turn the tables on it and all come out and say that Trump is going to win.

Honestly -- if you want Biden to win, the best thing to tell Biden voters is that Trump is on course to win. That'll make them more exicted to vote. If you tell them that Biden is going to win, they're going to think (or typically they would) think it's a sure thing and that they don't need to do anything. I think the Dems learned their lesson in 2016 though with Clinton and taking things for granted. We'll see in 2020 if those people that sat at home are going to vote for Biden, or they're going to sit at home again.

I don't think it's really the same thing as 2016. In 2016 Trump was the outsider not doing a classical campaign, who himself didn't expect to win. Hillary was the "chosen one".

Today, despite Trump's flaws, he's the incumbent. Most sitting presidents manage to get reelected, as bad as they are (W Bush anyone ?). The fact that Trump is behind in the polls is a testament that he's worse than bad. But he can still make it.

He also promised to make america great again.  And, by pretty much every metric, it's not.
hero member
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So is the cool thing, from the media, for everyone to say that Trump is going to win? Guess the 2016 'Trump is TOTALLY going to lose' is something that backfired, and now makes everyone who said it seem dumb. So as a reverse of that, all of them are now trying to turn the tables on it and all come out and say that Trump is going to win.

Honestly -- if you want Biden to win, the best thing to tell Biden voters is that Trump is on course to win. That'll make them more exicted to vote. If you tell them that Biden is going to win, they're going to think (or typically they would) think it's a sure thing and that they don't need to do anything. I think the Dems learned their lesson in 2016 though with Clinton and taking things for granted. We'll see in 2020 if those people that sat at home are going to vote for Biden, or they're going to sit at home again.

I don't think it's really the same thing as 2016. In 2016 Trump was the outsider not doing a classical campaign, who himself didn't expect to win. Hillary was the "chosen one".

Today, despite Trump's flaws, he's the incumbent. Most sitting presidents manage to get reelected, as bad as they are (W Bush anyone ?). The fact that Trump is behind in the polls is a testament that he's worse than bad. But he can still make it.
legendary
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So why do you think chances of Trump winning are probably slimmer than in the 2016 election? Even if he wins on the night he could lose when mail votes are counted and the same goes for Biden.

This one will end up in Court...

I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.
legendary
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So is the cool thing, from the media, for everyone to say that Trump is going to win? Guess the 2016 'Trump is TOTALLY going to lose' is something that backfired, and now makes everyone who said it seem dumb. So as a reverse of that, all of them are now trying to turn the tables on it and all come out and say that Trump is going to win.

Honestly -- if you want Biden to win, the best thing to tell Biden voters is that Trump is on course to win. That'll make them more exicted to vote. If you tell them that Biden is going to win, they're going to think (or typically they would) think it's a sure thing and that they don't need to do anything. I think the Dems learned their lesson in 2016 though with Clinton and taking things for granted. We'll see in 2020 if those people that sat at home are going to vote for Biden, or they're going to sit at home again.
legendary
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Democrats and Republicans both have their fringe elements to the extreme left and to the extreme right, neither made any rationale for a civil war though. There will be a problem with mailing votes but to which extent the loser of the election (either Trump or Biden) use it as a distraction or excuse remains to be seen.


What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. ...

I'm not seeing any rationale for a civil war, except on the part of the Democrats and Left: "We want power! We want power and it doesn't matter the people won't give it to us!"
legendary
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here is one article that could be interesting, and i share author thinking
https://medium.com/better-marketing/trumps-latest-move-against-biden-is-pure-marketing-genius-fd908666c485

it is referring to the marketing campaign that Trump is starting to put on, and seems that he has much better marketing strategy than Democrats

it is a video from the article
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw-KH9csjSc
legendary
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Surprising, Trump v. Biden tie in Florida according to a recent NBC/Marist poll - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239510

Shocking thing, Biden is struggling with latinos in Florida. I guess a lot of these folks are from Cuba and see first hand what socialism is from Castro's reign.

Marist also just released two FL polls showing Trump +1 in Fl in and dead heat on the other with Latinos supporting Trump 51%.

I assume it's the Miami/Tampa Cubans that are swinging the hispanic vote like you said.  Another thing to consider though is that the Cuban population is generally older and make more money than other minorities (aside from asians probably).

I wonder if his decision to tighten sanctions on Cuba are viewed as a good or bad thing by American Cubans in general.  I assumed bad, but these polls are making me second guess.

Edit: Just realized the Marist poll is the NBC one you were talking about.
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-Adults_Registered-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_2020090712220.pdf

Didn't think of income level, interesting. Are Cubans in Florida really that well off? 

Florida's obviously a coin toss but they've been voting red last two election cycles. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Florida went for Trump again with latinos swinging it in his favor but who knows if they'll turn out.
legendary
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Surprising, Trump v. Biden tie in Florida according to a recent NBC/Marist poll - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239510

Shocking thing, Biden is struggling with latinos in Florida. I guess a lot of these folks are from Cuba and see first hand what socialism is from Castro's reign.

Marist also just released two FL polls showing Trump +1 in Fl in and dead heat on the other with Latinos supporting Trump 51%.

I assume it's the Miami/Tampa Cubans that are swinging the hispanic vote like you said.  Another thing to consider though is that the Cuban population is generally older and make more money than other minorities (aside from asians probably).

I wonder if his decision to tighten sanctions on Cuba are viewed as a good or bad thing by American Cubans in general.  I assumed bad, but these polls are making me second guess.

Edit: Just realized the Marist poll is the NBC one you were talking about.
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-Adults_Registered-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_2020090712220.pdf
legendary
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Surprising, Trump v. Biden tie in Florida according to a recent NBC/Marist poll - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239510

Shocking thing, Biden is struggling with latinos in Florida. I guess a lot of these folks are from Cuba and see first hand what socialism is from Castro's reign.
legendary
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I think Trump can win but his chances are probably slimmer than the 2016 election. iirc 538 gave him a 1/4 chance of taking the election and Trump's margin of victory was ~50k votes in a handful of swing states.



+1 to that.

I think I've really flip flopped a lot during this cycle. But I do think that we're going to end up with a VERY slight win from either side. As of right now I'm leaning on Trump being the person who is going to edge out Biden by a FEW electoral votes. When I mean a few I truly mean like 2-8 electoral votes to end all of this out.

The national polls are going to show Trump down by like 8 or so. Which may end up what the popular vote is at the end of this. But I think Trump will win by like 50k votes in those same swing states. Here's a good pic from 538 showing what polls are showing (and leaning towards in the future):

legendary
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But if it's even a somewhat close election and Biden is declared the winner, it's entirely possible Trump just says 'no, he cheated, I won'. or 'we need a do over, here's an executive order now you have to do it' or whatever.
Donald Trump even as the president doesn't have the right to cancel or nullify the results of an election, in any case he loses. The most he can do is to take the matter to court, if he feels there were election manipulations and stuffs like that which led to his defeat in the polls. What you just said above is more common in countries with military unrest and dictators as presidents (mostly third world countries). The U.S. is not any of that.
legendary
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You are right if Trump wins many activists and grass root organisations will not take it well but let us not forget Trump has his own supporter base including evangelicals and the right-wing so this Presidential election will get messy.
Isn't that how it should be, Biden's supporters, the BLM and those who think Trump has had a bad four years as POTUS wouldn't celebrate if Trump wins, there could be maybe few riots here and there from members of the BLM, but that will be all, nothing significant, the U.S. is a first world nation and I think if there's any case of post election violence, it will be extinguished asap.
Many of the postal votes will be counted after election day and both camps will definitely contest the result either through the media or maybe in the Courts
When politicians go to court after losing an election, it usually doesn't change the result at the end of the court hearing, sometimes I wonder why they still make that move of going to court. In some third world countries, post election cases can last over four years (adjournment upon adjournment) by then the winners tenure is already up, lol, it's a waste of time imo.

It's definitely possible that what you're describing is what happens.
But if it's even a somewhat close election and Biden is declared the winner, it's entirely possible Trump just says 'no, he cheated, I won'. or 'we need a do over, here's an executive order now you have to do it' or whatever.

And then what.

Trump still has a couple months with all the powers of the president.  The entire Military reports to him, he's already demonstrated how easy it is to pretend like congress doesn't exist and manipulate the media, there are millions of Americans that actually believe the things he says - no matter how irrational or obviously untrue they are - and millions more that think it's funny when people get pissed that he lies so much.  That's a shitload of power.

As soon as we don't know who the president is, (half the country considers Biden President, the other half thinks it's Trump), we're no longer a first world country or the United States.
legendary
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You are right if Trump wins many activists and grass root organisations will not take it well but let us not forget Trump has his own supporter base including evangelicals and the right-wing so this Presidential election will get messy.
Isn't that how it should be, Biden's supporters, the BLM and those who think Trump has had a bad four years as POTUS wouldn't celebrate if Trump wins, there could be maybe few riots here and there from members of the BLM, but that will be all, nothing significant, the U.S. is a first world nation and I think if there's any case of post election violence, it will be extinguished asap.
Many of the postal votes will be counted after election day and both camps will definitely contest the result either through the media or maybe in the Courts
When politicians go to court after losing an election, it usually doesn't change the result at the end of the court hearing, sometimes I wonder why they still make that move of going to court. In some third world countries, post election cases can last over four years (adjournment upon adjournment) by then the winners tenure is already up, lol, it's a waste of time imo.
legendary
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You are right if Trump wins many activists and grass root organisations will not take it well but let us not forget Trump has his own supporter base including evangelicals and the right-wing so this Presidential election will get messy.

Many of the postal votes will be counted after election day and both camps will definitely contest the result either through the media or maybe in the Courts but I cannot see how a civil war is on the political horizon in the USA. That perspective seems far-fetched.

What worries me is that it looks like the U.S. is headed for a civil war. And I have a feeling that if Trump wins, the BLM movement is not going to take it well.
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