Does FUD and flame cause price to fall?or
Does a falling price cause FUD and flame?It really isn't as simple as either one. It's a chicken or the egg argument. They are intimately connected, very symbiotic. When things are going good, everything builds together, and when things are going bad, we get reinforcing downward spirals - what is sometimes called the "snowball effect".
Oh, if life were only so simple that we could really believe in the "don't worry, be happy" meme.
It's obviously a combination of the two, yes. When people are in the red on their investments they react negatively - there is a synergy when the value is dropping and a synergy when the value is rising. My point is that it makes no sense to come in here with a bad attitude and create panic (unless that is the goal) - if you are invested in a currency then, just like any other investment, you should do everything you can to contribute positively and lead a rebound. In the altcoin world everything is amplified because people are on edge - people are losing - move the meter an inch and the masses react as if it were a mile. The point is that a good trader can recognize these situations, learn from historical data, and profit greatly from it. I mention Dollar-Cost Averaging not to sound like a half-rate Ameriprise accountant but to reference a basic concept that so few people in the altcoin world seem to grasp. For the few of you that haven't really thought about it, here is an example of why it's such a critical concept for both savvy investors and emotional traders alike:
Let's say you made the following buys over the past 2 months:
May 14th, VTC @ 0.003: 1 BTC -> 333 VTC
May 20th, VTC @ 0.002: 1 BTC -> 500 VTC
June 10th, VTC @ 0.001: 1 BTC -> 1000 VTC
July 7th, VTC @ 0.0005: 1 BTC -> 2000 VTC
July 14th, VTC @ 0.00044: 1 BTC -> 2272 VTC
So you spent 5 BTC total over the past 2 months on VTC at a peak of 0.003 (the highest the price has been in months) and a low of 0.00044 (the current price). This is investing 101 for buy-and-hold people... but even for inexperienced emotional investors DCA is a powerful tool because it makes you realize the situation isn't as horrible as it feels. In the above example, you would have acquired 6105 VTC for 5 BTC or 1221 VTC per bitcoin. Despite buying at a peak of nearly 7 times the current price, your total purchase price is now averaged out to 0.00081; this means that when VTC recovers to even 0.001, a price we were all disgusted by just a couple short weeks ago, your investment would be worth 25% more than what you invested (over a full bitcoin). I'm not saying that means 0.001 would be a good time to dump and get out (unless that's what you need to do) but suddenly a suffocating situation doesn't look so bad.
I realize this is basic stuff and most of you likely won't get much out of it but we are in a market filled with emotional investors - we need more logical investors to help stabilize this thing. If we ever intend to create an actual economy for these altcoins beyond just speculation, stability is extremely important. When finances are involved, emotions run high - as a business owner, an investor, and even a family man I understand that - but the emotional component is not productive. We need people to take action - spread the word - start marketing and building a positive community - quit complaining and do something. Inaction will get you nowhere... complaining just brings down morale and destroys motivation - just because this is a world dominated by immature investors does not mean everybody needs to lower themselves down to the level of the majority of the field.
Sucking the air out of the room means everybody drops to the floor - if we can't remain motivated, positive, and productive how can we expect everyone else to do it? Positive environments result in positive outcomes - this is a community here, guys - people need to work together, start doing some grass roots marketing, start creating - nobody wants to invest in something if it's surrounding with negative whiners who contribute nothing but demand everything. Without a great community, at this stage, what's the point? I've been mining VTC for months and I've been buying it steadily for 2 months. If I lose everything I put into it, life goes on - I won't lose much sleep over it. However, whether it lives or dies, VTC has carved out it's place in the history books and paved the way for a number of innovations - it would be unfortunate to see a quality coin with fair distribution fall apart because its own community burned it to the ground. This market shifts on a dime and it's amazing how much of an impact this thread, right here on this FUD-filled forum, has on the price.
There are some great things going on here - highlight them and build on them; take advantage of the situation. You mention we can't believe in the "don't worry, be happy" meme - why? Honestly - why? In the grand scheme of things, we don't have a lot of time on this earth - why waste it by obsessing over things that don't really matter in the big picture. If you can't spin something into a positive you aren't trying hard enough. This is just money, it's not over, and even if you choose to give up and exit in the red you will earn more money, spend more money - as long as you never invested money you couldn't afford to lose, life goes on. Unless you have a bookie that is going to break your legs or something... suck it up and move forward. We have the power to start moving the meter in the right direction right now - we need to change the tone of this discussion and start deciding what we're going to do, collectively and individually, to flip the trend. Even if all you care about is the price... the community primarily drives the price. Nobody wants to buy into something when they're unsure if it's found the bottom - who cares? This isn't the stock market - we don't need to rely on quarterly earnings, projections, business models, and board members - it's a low-volume spec commodity market - every single person can have a noticeable impact on value. If people start thinking logically, we don't need to wonder when we will hit the bottom because this will be the bottom - it's really that simple.
People predicting prices are often creating the price via their very prediction - this entire market is dominated by inexperienced, immature, and emotional traders. Most will learn and improve and grow as they go but right now people need to step up. Remember: you don't lose money until you sell lower than you bought.