For those unfamilar with stock trading...
From Friday 7th to (at least the 11th*) the exchanges have been pretty much in what a stock trader would call an accumulation pattern.
None of the three exchanges have been exempt from it... Bter has been just as bad as Crypsty...
The Big Sells (and Buys) are from a mere few whales who have acquired enough stock to bully the price around... (usually by trading Bitcoin in to get fat)
The Big Buy/Sell markers prevent us smaller timers from having a naturally adjusted price.
They then prey on those who panic sell into their range, (and also those who sell blindly and do not care about the price at the time, but just want their BTC).
Anyone selling now is only serving to feed the whales... And as long as they get fed.... That price is staying down...
When they have had their fill... The will pull their markers and give the price a good hard shove upwards, dump and then resume the gradual drive down to get more (if they think people will still be in it)
The ONLY way the cycle ends, is when the little guys (most of us) either run out of coin and lose interest (quit), or wise up and start to hold hold hold...
Whatever happens, At some point the whale HAS to send the price back up... or else take a big hit...
------------
You can take the estimates with a grain of salt (I am no pro, that is certain), but based on what I have seen on BTer, I think unless the price goes back to 0.00540 one whale is going to lose some cash, and unless it goes back over 0.00580 he won't be making much profit (at least not at the Margins a whale takes the risk for)
Of course those values given above depend on the BTC / USD price (which is still the benchmark for all cryptocoin)
Either way I would be very very surprised if we dont see 0.00550 again sometime in the next few days, if not a spike back up to 0.00600 over the weekend.
-------------
Annoying as the market manipulation may be, There IS a silver lining, and what I am seeing is Volume Improvement....
Anywhere there remains sustained and increasing volume, there is value... and MORE importantly product exposure...
I know of at least two very well regarded individuals on a major stock-market forum, who took an interest in Vert (wouldn't surprise me if they are the Cryptsy traders peeps are hating, to be honest)... And one thing I have seen from these guys over the past few years, is they do NOT miss often with their money...
Whatever the trading clowns do, Im holding the VTC I am mining tight, and waiting for the opportunities to spend it to arrive...
-------------
*Lastly all the above aside, I have to concede the tumble in the last 6-8 hours sits OUTSIDE my expectations for an accumulation pattern (perhaps the whale met a kraken, and got snared) ... Be Careful !!!
The whale are playing fair with the rules and I think there is nothing wrong with any buy/sell technique or move price with BTC. Only problem in FIAT world is naked short selling with nothing you have on hands and push price down.
A more transparency on the exchange net BTC and net Alt coins published will promote more healthy exchange.
There is exchange of 2 different crypto and there is no way to know the numbers of BTC that buy the price up or the Alt coins that dump the price down balance in the first place.
I believe exchange will run into a problem of short of some ALT coins or BTC for example the deposit and withdraw and the transactions of BTC does not add up or balance at any one time.
Could exchange have the same situation like MTGOX with bank run that withdraw has difficulty because of imbalance deposits and withdrawal? I could see that the exchange happen only in a different mechanism where the deposits are unchanged at the deposit address. The trading transaction just add/minus the deposits during an exchange without actually using the blockchains value transfer.