Topic: ["WAIT LIST"] BFL SC Pre-Order Information (Monarch orders too!) - page 29. (Read 136393 times)

Let's step back a moment and inspect fundamentals.  Bitcoin protocol subsidy fundamentals.  Securing the network is all well and good, but without facts it means nothing.

Bitcoin protocol provides a subsidy to miners to ensure network security.  This subsidy, and how exactly how much of this subsidy equates to profits compared to operating costs is available to miners, will dictate how secure (total network capacity) the network will be.

An ASIC vendor, post NRE payoff, has a large profit margin.  These vendors can drop ASIC pricing tremendously based on miner profitability targets.

Those that adopt ASIC sooner, at a higher price point, may be left with longer ROI periods than those that wait to purchase.

ASIC vendors will be in total control of miner ROI.  They can drop from 1300 USD / unit to 100 USD / unit until miner subsidy is maximally diluted compared to their cost of production.

It's a wonderful business opportunity and an insidious profit extraction from Bitcoin miners.

Gents,
I just got this:

"This is to confirm that your order no. 9000, pay-dated 9/22/2012, for 1 BitForce Jalapeno has been successfully entered into our system.

We will notify you with tracking information when your order ships.

Thank you for your interest in Butterfly Labs, Inc. and for your order.

Kind regards,"

From Butterfly Labs Inc

Its moving! 

Date Paid - 2012/9/25
Order Number -  9252
Trade-In (Y/N) - N
Qty SC Jalapeno - 2
Qty SC Single - 0
Qty SC Mini Rig - 0
User - burger

The more Singles that are sold, the harder the network is to attack. It also makes it harder for someone to justify a $1300 piece of equipment that only makes 0.15BTC a day because the difficulty is so high. The price is going to have to rise for LOTS of ASICs to be worth it.

there's nothing wrong with that... if the cost of ASIC single SC would go down in the future, I'm sure to buy couple more. There are also bunch of other subjects announcing ASIC as we speak. I f even half of them actually delivered a product, there will be a competitive market, which means lower prices, which means it will be easier for us miners to get a good and cheap product. Only people losing money will be the ones heavily invested in GPU/FPGA chips.

*bear

But this is AWESOME!  I don't know why people are complaining when we should be celebrating.  The closer that BFL and the other ASIC providers can get to selling at cost, the better for the community as a whole.  If they sell 1,000 singles at 40 GH/s, we have 40 TH/s of protection.  If they sell 100,000 singles at 40 GH/s, we have 4,000 TH/s of protection.  The cheaper they are, the less attackable the network will be!

Whoops  sorted and table updated.

What we should be worried about is a post initial delivery flood of ASICs.  Consider this.  Approx. 3 small time operations, 2-3 individuals each, outside of BFL contributed to FPGA options for Bitcoin mining.  Only two of the small FPGA operations will move to providing ASIC products.  These small operations will rely on electronics assembly companies to produce units in rather small batch quantities.

With BFL having confirmed 22 employees, purchasing PCB SMT assembly equipment typically found in high volume assembly, we must consider BFL's capital and operating expenses, their need to make a profit and what impact that will have on Bitcoin.

Once BFL's capital investments are recouped, e.g. assembly equipment and ASIC NRE, BFL will be free to produce ASIC's at an estimated cost of 10-20 USD, including the PCB and housing.  Then we should add on operating expenses such as labor, executive compensation, facilities, etc.

With all of this in mind the smart miner should keep in mind that Bitcoin is BFL's only market.  That said, with BFL's sole profit center being Bitcoin there is a large incentive for BFL to sell as many ASIC's as possible at whatever cost the market will bare.  The Bitcoin mining community may be faced with a harsh reality that BFL would be the only party that would make a profit with certainty.

My order #3976 is on the list twice.

even if all the orders were true (for example I cancelled one of mein so I'm sure there are more people like me) and the difficulty will go up by around 20x, we will still break even after half a year of running the BFL single. I think that's still an awesome ROI

Difficulty Factor   57282800.0
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second)   40000.0
Exchange Rate ($/฿)   12.05005


Coins   Dollars
per Day   ŕ¸ż0.70   $8.46
per Week   ŕ¸ż4.92   $59.24
per Month   ŕ¸ż21.35   $257.29

Think so? Please do put you money where you mouth is. Bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665

Date Paid - 2012/7/16
Order Number - 3347
Trade-In (Y/N) - Y
Qty SC Jalapeno - 0
Qty SC Single - 1
Qty SC Mini Rig - 0
User - Crazyates

09/23/2012    9116    N    0    1    0    -    - (posting for my friend)

Grouver great application/service (BtcBalance) 

Thanks for confirmation

Me too!

Yes, I have only 1 email from them too.

Date Paid - 09/24/2012
Order Number -  9144
Trade-In (Y/N) - N
Qty SC Jalapeno -2



P.S. Is it normal, that BFL do ot answer or confirm purchase, only the first mail, that i have placed order?

I think that's because some people don't believe in miracles. Planned efficiency of SC ASICs looks incredible.

Why would people still be ordering FPGA singles?
That would be plain stupid and a waste of money.
Your ROI will grow tremendously when the ASICs start to come in.