Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 11399. (Read 26726233 times)

We might be close to agreement in part of this here statement, but let me explain a bit. 

This is not about whether anyone is getting "beaten down" or losing spirits, so we do not cheerlead in order to attempt to change the truth or the reality that we are in, but a significant difference in how a market is labelled would cause different outcomes in the assignment of probabilities for BTC price direction.

For example, in a bear market the probability for down might be 52/48  however in a bull market that probability for down might shift to 48/52.  It's an attempt at an objective assignment about probabilities NOT about how any one feels in particular.  Feelings don't matter very much when assigning probabilities, and they also might get in the way of reality to attempt to take them into account in terms of how you judge the market or how you might want others to feel about the BTC price or market situation.



Agreed.  We are not going to use some of the traditional market measures here both because bitcoin is not anywhere near a mature market, and bitcoin is very likely in an scurve exponential adoption curve that overall skews its whole price performance dynamics more in terms of UP and explosive up, even though sometimes in the short term the explosive up dynamics and possibilities can get lost in the mix.


It may feel arbitrary, and that is why I attempted to set forth some dynamics in which I would be ready and willing to change the label that I assign.



I don't know about that.  There may be some truth that there is no other asset class exactly like BTC previously or in the future, but once BTC matures, its market dynamics are likely going to change as well to those dynamics of a more mature market where traditional tools might become more applicable to it, perhaps?


Even if subsequently, it is decided that the bullmarket started, as you said in December 2018, it does not change the current dynamic that we are not yet in such bullmarket in terms of current reasonable and prudent assignment of short term BTC price dynamic possibilities.  Currently, those market dynamics remain in favor of down, which is thus a bear market, so calling it otherwise is erroneous at least and perhaps deceptive.


Could be a fair analogy.


fair enough.. but who cares?  The odds were against such trashy team until a certain momentum point.


Again, you can cheer all you want, but it does not change dynamics.  The outcome is not inevitable, and even though the outcome ends up becoming 100%, once it happens, it does not change the dynamics that the outcome might have been 48% two months earlier. or even two days before when the unlikely outcome ended up actually happening against the odds.

It is stupid and irresponsible to call any outcome as 100%, especially when in the future.



You can believe all you want, that does not change where we are at, currently, which is in a bear market with 48/52 or whatever odds in favor/against short term up or phrased another way the bottom NOT actually being "in"..

@JJG - If I’m honest I’m way more invested in bitcoin than any sane person would be. I have a house with a mortgage on, an apartment that I rent out (it also has a mortgage on).

I have £40,000 in a shit UK fiat bank ISA savings account with 0.1% annual interest (a compensation pay out for a bad car accident I had 10 years ago - caused by a drunk driver).

Apart from that I’m all in on bitcoin. Most sensible people would buy 3 or 4 more apartments & rent them out & probably be set for life but I believe in bitcoin so much. I’m a risk taker & I will become a millionaire through crypto, I’m very certain of it.

Any way that’s my fucking shitty story

I said fluids ...

Quite a drop here.

pathetic liquidity

Best case/worst case maybe? Regardless, within 14 months it seems a pretty safe bet we will at least be 2x from where we are today. Carry on.

$3320 today would already do so (unless its an intra-week downspike) as it's below the weekly MA200.

And if spikes above $6k on the weekly bull market would be 100% confirmed. No need to wait 2 months (daily MA200 is at $5k and weekly MA50 is at $6k).

Given the upward slope of every long term support/trend line, $3,320 in 11 months would put is in bad shape, as I believe it would violate pretty much all long term bull lines.