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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1215. (Read 26630531 times)

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 2213
May look like a Bart, but it's just 2k bitcoin Grayscale dump on Coinbase followed by a leverage liquidation.
Gary knew what he was doing when he demanded cash creation and redemption.

This is different from normal bear market crashes because this money is coming back to bitcoin. It's actually a great opportunity to buy because it's a planned dump where they have to sell to be able to convert their trust. One of the greatest bear traps of all time if you ask me.

Well this would explain the high selling in past few days, the only issue I have is that this sell-off has bled into Bitstamp and other major exchanges, currently making it the highest selling volume on 3D chart since November 2022 capitulation. While that was the low in the market, this sell-off has come from a top in the market, and end of week will be a massive bearish gravestone doji if price closes below $44K.

I understand the concept of it being a bear trap, as price could reverse back to the upside when the selling subsides, however part of me feels like the damage has already been done long-term. That of printing an incredibly bearish red candle, given it's the first time in over a year where there is a strong bearish signal - the whole of 2023 never had a realistic bearish signal, only dips and a bit of FUD here and there.

I think short-term likely this will be a bear trap, similar to June 2019, where there was the massive gravestone doji with a -20% wick, and price pumped back to retest resistance over the next two weeks.

Always in the back of my mind is that price has moved from $30K to $48K with zero dips testing support. This means price can return to $30K with ease, as there was no support created on the way up.

There's this theory by British Hodl that the big buyers are on the sidelines with a few billions waiting for GBTC to bleed out completely. The commission is 1.5% yearly, while the new ETFs have undercut each other and the cheapest of the lot are at 0.15% - one tenth of GBTC's management fee. So GBTC customers will get out of there to get in some cheaper ETF. The buyers are just waiting for this wave of sell orders to reach a price bottom.

Here's the British Hodl guy explaining this in 17 minutes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=reELJVofC3I

A thank you goes to @cAPSLOCK for pointing me to it.

Hard to follow this guy. He thought there would be a month delay in approval and launch of ETFs, despite it was well documented that the launches would likely be the following day. He also thought a "god candle" was going to occur once the ETF launched, which to me just seems completely daft. It's rare this happens when ETFs launch, as it takes time to build up liquidity and confidence in these products.

He also thinks he was "wrong but correct"; which is classic YouTube speak that can be translated into "being wrong but trying to maintain some credibility at the same time". This guy is an avoid for me.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
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legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
According to Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci (speaking on Bloomberg TV):

     Generally bullish for 2024.

Reasons for current price drop:

     A lot of selling from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, swapping to lower-cost ETFs.
     Bankruptcy estate for FTX unloading into the ETF announcement.
     Wall Street hasn't been able to market the ETFs yet.

Competition between Bitcoin ETF providers:

     BlackRock & Fidelity will likely emerge as the dominant players.

Other key points:

     First ETFs based on an asset with fixed supply: endless demand!
     Upward trend will likely resume in 6 to 8 trading days.
     Bitcoin market cap at $7 trillion (half of gold's) by 2030.

[Source]

Hopefully this Scaramucci is talking a lot of sense and not just doing a fandango.

legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 4839
Addicted to HoDLing!
According to Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci (speaking on Bloomberg TV):

     Generally bullish for 2024.

Reasons for current price drop:

     A lot of selling from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, swapping to lower-cost ETFs.
     Bankruptcy estate for FTX unloading into the ETF announcement.
     Wall Street hasn't been able to market the ETFs yet.

Competition between Bitcoin ETF providers:

     BlackRock & Fidelity will likely emerge as the dominant players.

Other key points:

     First ETFs based on an asset with fixed supply: endless demand!
     Upward trend will likely resume in 6 to 8 trading days.
     Bitcoin market cap at $7 trillion (half of gold's) by 2030.

[Source]
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
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legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
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legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 3439
Man who stares at charts (and stars, too...)
Is this god candle in the room with us?

It's more like a dog candle...  Cheesy Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 114
Merit: 93
Fly free sweet Mango.
ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
Credit to ChartBuddy
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
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legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
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legendary
Activity: 2242
Merit: 3523
Flippin' burgers since 1163.
Would be a shame if we had a weekend pump and introduce Wallstreet to an asset that trades 24/7 outside of their own control exchanges. Next Monday the NASDAQ and NYSE are closed, adding to the FOMO.
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
some proposals for a new poll:


Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k?

What is the Bitcoin price at halving date?

What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date?

Will we have new ATH before halving?



If ETFs keep their pace of 0.6B net flow per day ,it will be 60B in 100 days. So  may see ATH before havling.

I guess
50K ,70K ,70K ,Yes.



Still don't have full data for the 12th, but GBTC outflow was -2.000BTC and inflows into other ETFs appears to be only a small portion of what we had on the first day, which might explain the drop


EDIT: Bloomberg is showing -$484,1MM outflow from GBTC on day2 so around -11k coins with inflows to other ETFs staying almost the same as day1
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
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legendary
Activity: 3934
Merit: 11405
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
And when you thought things couldn't get any weirder your cordless screwdriver starts acting up:
Vulnerabilities on Bosch Rexroth Nutrunners May Be Abused to Stop Production Lines, Tamper with Safety-Critical Tightenings
-> https://www.nozominetworks.com/blog/vulnerabilities-on-bosch-rexroth-nutrunners
Apparently it cost too much to pay a human to check mission critical systems with a analog device now.

*glad I'm not going to be around for this future.
I am lucky 67 all kids are dead.

Just me and the wife.  We had a good amount of fun for years and still have fun now.

If it all collapses in more than 15 years I would be 82 so I caught a break. Compared to most people under 45 at this moment.

I am thinking that you are referring to the difficulties that younger people are going to have in order to have a good life, if we might presume that there might be a decent number of folks under 45 who are having troubles with the various benefits of contributing into a system such as social security and having both a pension plan and a 401k.. but still there might still be some redemption for those who at least recognize bitcoin, and the more that I write, the more that I consider some of the challenges that are already here and that are likely going to continue to burden the younger folks with the whole degradation of the current fiat system (and the current debt system).. but still bitcoin could well end up facilitate a quite a bit of the transition without necessarily needing to go through as much violence as what had to happen in earlier transitions when the state spends itself into some kind of need for a transition... With bitcoin, the optimist in me causes me to be unsure about whether war will be necessary for such transitioning.

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k

this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..
I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

Hard to say.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
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legendary
Activity: 3934
Merit: 11405
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
[edited out]
GBTC has been trading at a discount since Feb '21 (that's almost 6% in fees from the top) and was -40% just in June '23. It wasn't the inflow from tax accounts that closed that gap down to -1.9% day before approval, but a bet for an ETF. Now those that bought at the discount shall rip the benefit, fillippone had a whole thread on GBTC somewhere

In regards to fillippone's thread, you are talking about this one?

some proposals for a new poll:

[1] Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k?

[2] What is the Bitcoin price at halving date?

[3] What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date?

[4] Will we have new ATH before halving?

1) both of those prices are within the don't wake me up zone.

2)  $45k-ish, give our take $10k.      I know that is boring, so my next answer would be $87.5k - give or take $7.5k, which would then surely require my answer to number 4 to be in the affirmative.

3) $87.5k give our take $7.5k

4) based on my answers to 1, 2 and 3, it is almost compelled that I answer yes to this one, but if my first answer is not correct, then my back up answer would be no.

Always do as they do, never do as they say you should do.

Vanguard: "BTC is bad mmkay, it's really volatile, so it's bad as a long term investment"

Meanwhile, Vanguard is number 2 and 3 shareholders of MicroStrategy (15% total) and Coinbase (14% total).
Nice numbers, but where is the sauce to consider them facts?  Roll Eyes

Regarding their original statement:
There are also customers and "customers".  Wink

I was thinking that the number one shareholder in Microstrtategies would be Michael Saylor... so is there even 15% available after that?

I see that BitcoinBunny provided the source in his subsequent post.. and surely those articles seem to answer a lot of questions.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
full member
Activity: 242
Merit: 101
some proposals for a new poll:


Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k?

What is the Bitcoin price at halving date?

What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date?

Will we have new ATH before halving?



If ETFs keep their pace of 0.6B net flow per day ,it will be 60B in 100 days. So  may see ATH before havling.

I guess
50K ,70K ,70K ,Yes.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
full member
Activity: 324
Merit: 221
My degenerate buy orders continue.  Thought I was out of powder until next week but, I rallied the troops.

Glad I don't have a S/O to answer to.  I imagine it would go something like this:

Me: "No, we can't go to that fancy restaurant you've been asking about. We don't have the money this week."

S/O: *stares silently with arms crossed*

Me: "Yes, I spent all of our left over money this week on a digital coin... no we can't spend it..."
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