Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1500. (Read 26731933 times)

Explanation
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BREAKING: Russia's Finance Ministry considers treating #Bitcoin  earned through mining as export products similar to oil and gas.



BTC_Archive>>https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1735320230430200004?t=xVNw6w32U418fJSpMr7hiA&s=19

Explanation
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hahahahaha

That's not going to happen with me, as in my earlier post, I already referred to my approach as being price-based rather than time based.. and from my point of view, anyone trying to accomplish both price and time is ultimately a fool or a guesser.. and I don't want my investment approach to be based on guesses...

In other words, if I am going to need to incorporate one or the other.. then it is a hands down choice for me to go down the road of a price-based approach.
 


Good luck with that.  I am not going to go there.. even though I surely do give probabilities to it, but if we try to predict both time and price, then we end up with even further speculation. 

In my investment ideas thread, you can see that in late 2021, I did assign some probabilities to time and to price, so these are quite difficult to do, and they are moving targets, so yeah, we can assign probabilities to various price ranges within a certain amount of time, but it surely is not going to be anything that is easy to pin down or anything that I would even try to base my own portfolio managment (and/or my BTC buy and/or sell decisions).


 If you quantify fuck you status in terms of BTC, then you can see that the amount of BTC that you need is continuing to come down, whether you use $2 million as your fuck you status level or some other dollar value for your BTC.

From my entry-level fuck you status chart (that describes $2 million as entry level fuck you status) even if you were to ONLY have 10 BTC, you may well entry-level fuck you status by mid 2032, and if you were to ONLY have 5 BTC, then you may well get to entry-level fuck you status by mid-2036.   Of course, the projections may not be exactly right, but you can come up with your own projections that may well end up having similar kinds of directional outcomes, even if the numbers might end up varying somewhat from mine.


I see that i do have some ideas for dates, but just in broader kinds of ways, and my ideas of dates are slow moving in regards to the 200-week moving average, and not in regards to the spot price, so I am likely a lot more emotionally tied to the 200-week moving average playing out in a kind of reasonable and expected way rather than attempting to have much if any clue about how the spot price is going to play out, even though surely higher BTC spot prices for longer is going to have a dragging up affect on the 200-week moving average, and the 200-week moving average is quite a bit of a lagging indicator, even though we can still attempt to make judgements about what to do in terms of our BTC portfolio management in relation to where the BTC spot price is directionally and how extreme from the 200-week moving average, as I also do in my sustainable withdraw thread. 

Of course, you already have stated that you are not ready to consider sustainable withdrawal ideas, and surely I can understand that, and so I also suggest to NOT be fucking around with selling BTC in order to accumulate more.. And once you reach the levels of sustainable withdrawal or even the other kinds of areas in which you are o.k. to schedule areas to shave off some of your BTC, then you can start to employ those systems at this time, but instead you are planning and wanting to engage in timing of the market in order to sell  on the way up and buy back lower, which surely is outside of my specialty, especially the timing angle, because my systems are price-based and i work towards having the price come to me (which is actually less work) rather than trying to figure out when the BTC price is going to get at whatever places it might get and whether or not that will constitute a top or a bottom for that matter... sure I play around with such ideas, but I rarely change my buying/selling strategies based on those kinds of considerations of when and where the BTC price might be at any given time.


Actually, if you look at my HypoMyth charts, the first one subscribes to no buying back, so it might be a kind of worse case scenario if the BTC price goes shooting up to $37million, and then HypoMyth ends up selling 95% of his BTC all the way up and ends up with less than 0.5 BTC when the BTC price is at $37 million, and still is that even a bad problem to have, and if you don't like that, then you would be able to change the sell parameters including the increments of the sales and the quantity of BTC sold at each of the various increments in which a sale of  BTC might be projected.


I did not list the rates.  I put in the parameters for the sales, and the fiat rates is what ended up showing up.  So if your first sell was going to be 20% of your stash at $130k,  then if you require the BTC price to go up 50% before you make your next sale, then it has to go up by $65k before your next sale would be triggered.  You can change those increments to whatever you like and you can change the percentage sold to whatever you like, too... and so maybe it can be a little easier to look at broad strokes, but if you have smaller increments, you could just have more rows to project out further.  I remember some similar kinds of charts that I had made in 2015, and they had the BTC price going up to nearly 10x, and so they were projected to go out to something like $2k, but as the BTC price continued to go up, and then I would change the earlier numbers so that the chart projected forward, then it would end up going out to higher and higher numbers, until we got to the end of 2017, then the BTC price started coming back down, so then my outward projections came down too, but sometimes I still wanted to see the far out numbers, so I just added an additional 20 rows in order to project out to $1million or whatever other outrageous number that I wanted to see. 

And I can look at some of the charts that i had projecting out to $20k when the BTC price might have ONLY been around $1k and those projections seemed outrageous, and even how the reality ended up playing out was not exactly the same as how the chart had projected, because I did make various tweaks along the way, so sometimes the reality would reflect something different than what had been projected, and then I would have to go with the reality rather than the projection in terms of projecting what to do from the time that I updated the charts, and even if there was some variance, having the projections did help to provide some guidance regarding what I should do and even whether I should stick with the plan or if I might want to tweak my plan a bit based on how what is happening seems to be different from what I had previously projected would happen.


I doubt that they are very extreme, and if you don't want to see numbers going above $1million, then just delete those rows or maybe change your increments or some other kind of action that makes sense so that the top numbers might seem more in line with something that you would like to see as being something that might play out during your time investing into BTC.....


You are not going to get any argument with me on that point, and I understand at the same time, we have to plan our lives, so frequently, we are going to consider whether we are going to be able to do x, y or z, or maybe if we might pull the Fuck you lever as early as 2028 or as a worse case scenario in 2038.

We can project out various kinds of timelines that can presume growth in our networth.. For example, I used to have projections of my networth that largely projected 10% or more per year changes in my networth, so there can sometimes be changes that are reflected in other kinds of charts that you have, and by the way, whatever the total changes in a person's networth might be lists of various assets that s/he holds and then projections of how much income is coming in in order to continue to accumulate the assets, and then how much each of the assets might go up in value or might retain its value or might depreciate... so there could be projections that are based on expectations, which also might help to point you towards when you might be ready, willing and able to pull the fuck you lever... and if you create a base case, which might be your expectation of what is most likely to play out, with excel it is easy to make copies of various charts and to tweak a few parameters, so you could also have some alternative scenarios that are best case scenarios or better case scenarios or various kinds of worse case scenarios that would help to give you some guidance regarding timelines that you might be able to get to a point of pulling the fuck you lever, or whatever other financially related goals that you might happen to have that can be projected out. .and surely the more realistic you are (rather than pie in the sky, then the more likely that you will be able to reach and/or exceed your expectations rather than bullshiting yourself about something that you project to happen but hardly has any chance of happening.. so frequently it is going to be better to have somewhat conservative projections, even if you keep the better scenarios in mind..


Yes.. and that can be part of the problem of engaging in behaviors that have the opposite effect, so if you are net buying more than you are selling, then why the fuck are you wasting your time selling and buying at the same time.

Don't get me wrong, I am not against having techniques that might end up playing out like selling from one hand and buying with the other, and sometimes there might not be easy ways to resolve the dilemma.. .. but on the other hand, sometimes you may well end up coming up with a solution in which you are able to resolve the dilemma without throwing yourself out of the goal in which if you can see that you don't have enough BTC, then you should be focusing on buying BTC until you get to a point that you either have enough or you have too much, even if it might cost you a bit more to consistently be buying rather than fucking around with both buying and selling.. when the best way to accumulate more BTC is to buy, rather than selling... but hey, you can believe whatever you like.. and work your practices into your beliefs..and hope that you don't get paralyzed by trying to be greedy and buy lower when you should probably just be buying and forgetting about whether or not you might be able to buy 5% more if you wait and the drop in price may or may not end up happening.


If you just keep buying, then you are not going to need to worry about the sell high and buy low phenomena.. because with the passage of time, especially greater than 4 years, it is quite likely that all of your earlier purchases are going to have had taken place at prices that are lower than the current price, and sure there are likely to continue to be waves, but if your timeline from here is another 8-10 years, then at some point you may well be changing some of your buying strategies and it will come more naturally to know what to do and to know that you have way more BTC than you actually need.  Sure that is a good problem to have and it is not an inevitable outcome...but we know that many folks take 30-40 years or longer to get to entry-level fuck you status, and many don't even get there, so if you are able to get there then you have accomplished more than a lot of people and if you have the bonus outcome of getting to entry-level fuck you status in a timeline that is less than 30-40 years or even cut that down to 15-20 years, then you have really made a great accomplishment that is not even that likely of happening, and it might not even be worth it to try to rush how long it takes but instead to try to be as aggressive as you can without going overboard in terms of causing yourself to risk principle in whatever kinds of trades that you choose to make along the way.


Well if you can still get the numbers to work for you, then you account for your various expenses in order to make it work.


That is great.  If you get a working chart, then you can either plug in various scenarios around your own personal circumstances and maybe even to figure out some secret preferences that you have that you don't necessarily want to disclose, and surely some times, you might have situations in which you have BTC that are in different cost basis levels, and you may or may not want to include certain coins into your model, or you can make a copy of the chart, and then look at various scenarios side by side to make comparisons if you are trying to figure out what might be better for you or better ways to think about the matter, or maybe even if you are wanting to compare worse case, base case and better case scenarios side by side.


Going through the exercise of projecting out the numbers could influence your thinking on the matter, so I am glad that you are at least going through it, and seeing if there might be some ways that it might make sense for you, even if the starting out BTC amounts or the sell amounts might be different or the percentages that you would like to sell at various points might be different or the increments between sales might be different.


You could end up doing both, too... you could have part of your stash that you are selling based on price and another part that is based on timing.  Of course, if you divide into two, then you likely would end up reducing the amounts in each category, but you can work out those kinds of projections, and it seems that we still have quite a bit of time, according to your current time-projection...


hahahahaha.. if you are not sure, then maybe you just reduce the size, so you don't end up doing anything too drastic..and if you are in BTC accumulation stage, it seems to me to be the best way to accumulate BTC is by buying it regularly, persistently and consistently, and not by selling it....and sure, sometimes you have accumulated a certain amount of BTC that you don't really want to be buying at the top of a blow off top, but that might still not mean that you sell any BTC but that you just keep accumulating BTC during the periods that you perceive the BTC price to be high and to be able to use that extra accumulated fiat for buying at various points during the dip (if such a dip ends up happening).

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

So simple, so ironclad secure, so foolproof.*








* so long as you create it the right way

I both agree and disagree with you on the time based approach.

On one side, yes, assuming anyone can know when to sell and when to buy is kind of silly.  Almost as silly as projecting the future price.  Additionally, the thought of being able to set a sell order or buy order and just let it sit there until it is executed at a predetermined value that is acceptable is a much less stressful approach and insures that one gets what they want.

On the other side, I feel that we can assume some constants.  We can assume inflation will continue to happen at a relatively continuous rate.
Source: https://inflationdata.com/articles/2022/08/10/u-s-cumulative-inflation-since-1913/

We can assume that halvings will continue to happen with relatively consistent time frames.

Source: https://www.coinbeast.com/post/bitcoin-halving-dates-clock-countdown-chart

We can assume that interest and use of Bitcoin will increase with time.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/a-record-number-of-investors-are-holding-at-least-01-btc

Assuming constants and looking at past performance one could potentially tie a timeframe to future movements in price.

All of this being said, after starting my spreadsheet and hypothetical scenarios, I really feel the best course of action, for me personally, is to hold and continue to accumulate through purchases with current income methods.  Additionally, with Greyhats recent post about taxes and the income tax it makes more sense to potentially be able to withdraw at a time where cap gains tax may not even apply to me vs trying to gain back a 20% hit on anything that is sold.

Additionally, I don't take anything you say as hostile.  I appreciate your point of view and enjoy exploring these different ideas.

**some of the graphs would not link as an image but are found in the source links**

No-one ever swapped the firmware on my paper wallet.

Explanation
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Bingo!

Of course there are going to be challenges in any attempt to rely on a time-based approach to playing the nearly inevitable BTC price waves rather than a price-based approach to playing such waves.. .. Surely, a time-based approach seems to devolve in an attempt to trade.... in a kind time in the market is better than timing the market kind of prohibition (cautionary tale).

I am not even suggesting that you are wrong to make such an attempt (but you are wrong.. hahahahahaha.. cough, cough, cough).., and the fact of the matter is that we can do whatever we like in terms of trying to manage our price expectations including trying to figure out the BTC price waves that are inevitable but we do not know how strong they will be, which direction they will go or how long they will last, even though you are trying to play that game with fractals... and yeah, it may work, but it may not..

From the perspective of this here cat, a price-framed approach seems much more calming.  You let the price come to you, and if it ends up reaching your various points, you pull the trigger, and if it does not reach you, then you just wait it out, and if you are anxious, then you can tweak the price points to make them execute more frequently and at lower amounts, and if you play them right, you are still going to get action at several points in the process, and you would not need to be greedy in the whole matter.. calm, cool and collected and collecting various cash outs along the way.

One of the reasons that some people get nervous about cashing out some BTC early is because they have not yet reached a place in which they even should be cashing out.  So that might be another consideration in that if you are not ready to be cashing out, then you should not be doing it... wait until you have enough BTC (or more than enough BTC) to be cashing out.. and if that might take one or two more cycles, then so be it.  You already mentioned that you have 8-10 more years before you are even thinking about starting to regularly withdraw your BTC, which tells me that you are not at the point of withdrawing any yet.. even though you already have it in your head that you are going to try to time this upcoming price wave.. which may or may not end up working to your advantage.  and of course, peeps can do whatever they like... and let's see how it plays out.

By the way.. either of those HypoMyth charts that show 1) no presumption of buying back and also 2) presumptions of having some buy back success. Either of those charts are fairly aggressive on the sell amounts - and yeah, of course, they are both price-based approaches rather than time-based approaches.  As you likely have noticed, I am a wee bit hostile (not totally hostile, but a wee bit) to time-based approaches, even though surely they do sometimes work, so it is nothing personal against you, because I frequently get into tussles with guys in these here parts about time-based approaches, even though such time-based approaches sometimes do end up working out (at least seemingly more profitable than a price-based approach in those circumstances) in their having had deployed such time-based tactics.

How about just sticking to being a wallet? All this extra shit just increases the attack surface.

Taxes
Good point on the tax.  If early retirement is funded on BTC only... then income would be under the $47,025 cap.  That is something I had not factored before.  However, tax laws are finicky and always changing.  It is hard to say what tax laws may be in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years.  Another factor to take into account is the taxable rates that are constantly changing:

Source: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54911

The above graph can also explain why when you talk to people who worked from the 1970s through 2000 they tout 401k or other pretax or tax deferred savings methods.  They were working during a time where taxable rates were at an all time high.  The less tax they could get away with paying or deferring the better! Looking at the graph we are currently working in a near all time low tax rate era while they are projecting tax rates to increase.  Meaning those same retirement methods could actually result in you paying a higher taxable rate after deferring that tax.  But, in all honesty who the fuck knows what tax laws will be or what rates will be in the future.  Could it go down, up, sideways? Perhaps... perhaps... perhaps?

An example in tax law changes is when the Trump tax laws went into affect.  Some of the law changes did away with unreimbursed working expenses.  People who used to claim car mileage or other similar items on their returns were now unable to do so.  However, at the same time the standard deduction was also increased in an attempt to "make taxes more simple".  As I said, hard to say what tax laws will be or how they may change year to year.

Withdrawing
Many posts I see and folks I have talked to about this prefer the 200wma as a more stable way to project value of their holdings.  I am not quite sold on that method just yet but, I am still maybe 8-10 years away from wanting to do this.  The other method that I am looking at is withdrawing approximately 500 days after a halving.  Below is a chart I have posted that I will continue to watch in the coming years.


The chart shows an obvious ideal sell period of approximately 500 days after a halving.  However, then we come to the obstacle in the road of "past performance does not guarantee future results".  Since I am still in the accumulating phase, I have some years left to see if this cycle continues.  I've seen others hypothesize that future halvings may not have the same impact as past halvings.  There are obviously many factors that go into valuing BTC vs the the US Dollar and it is impossible to project how the future may play out.

If BTC did not continue to follow the 4 year cycle I currently see and become more stable then that may even be a better scenario in being able to withdraw on a yearly basis only the amount needed to continue to the next year.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

One of the interesting "happenings" right now is that we seem to be continuing to experience persistent and ongoing UPpity that largely started in mid-October from $27k, so there have been a few legs up, and then some various kinds of seeming stagnation and then continued legs up, and so far the corrections have not really gotten to any meaningful level, which is not saying that any correction might not rise to the level of significance and/or meaning at any point including now or any point between here and $55k... Sure, $50k was resistance previously, but who gives any shits about those kinds of supposed previous resistance levels..,

however, I would still be surprised if BTC prices get into supra $55k territories without any meaningful/significant correction, whether spot ETF approvals or not....even though of course spot BTC ETF approvals would add more fuel to the fire - yet at this time, these seemingly boring flat periods, in which we are getting legs up and then seeming stagnancy and repeated legs up, just seem to be ways for the buying support to keep up with the ongoing and persistent UPpity.. which also makes it more difficult to end up getting the large, significant and meaningful correction because the buy support is able to keep up.

Well, Ledger has shit the bed yet again

https://twitter.com/Ledger/status/1735370531224834430

Yet another reason not to dabble in shitcoins but man it has been an embarrassing year for the Ledger team. Couple all that with their software being packed with analytics tracking and they're a big NO for me now

There are good Bitcoin NFTs, they just aren't on Ordinals.

I own the original NFT of this photo. I will sell it to you for the low price of 4,500 BTC.

Today only. It is a heavy discount. I'm making a loss here already. I'll throw in the hard to get NFT "Longbearded Ape with his ass hanging out #45 in green." for free.



Do we have a deal or do we have a deal?

20 seconds to decide.

The clock is ticking.