Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1515. (Read 26732366 times)

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I am not sure what you mean.  If you are suggesting that there is some kind of a correction, then why would any kind of correction matter, if the price ends up "taking off" and then presumptively going past our current price, going past $50k, going past previous ATH and at minimum ending up supra $80k.. .. You would be presuming that at least the minimum has decently good chances in the next 1 to 2 years and so that would be a doubling of whatever you have into bitcoin in 1-2 years.   Sure, it is possible that even the "minimum" does not end up playing out, but you don't really seem to be suggesting that kind of a scenario, are you?

Now on the upside, there are a lot of really decent scenarios ranging from supra $100k to $2.5 million and above, but surely even many of the really decent upside scenarios seem to be erroring quite low in the range, which seems to be $500k or lower, but even that would not be bad, and we cannot take any of those various upside scenarios for granted, and we cannot even take for granted that we are going to get up from here rather than sideways or down, but hardly any of us who have been studying bitcoin for very long would consider sideways or down from here scenarios to have better than 50/50 chances, and maybe even we might be assigning  less than 35% odds to those kinds of downity and/or sideways scenarios...

so what is the "hopefully [I'm] wrong about that" part of your statement?


I would think that many of us do it in order to have more options.  So, if we are looking at having bitcoin versus not having bitcoin, having bitcoin seems to give us more options, even if we may or may not end up getting rich off of the matter.

Probably, bitcoin also gives hope because there are not too many investments in which anyone can have hope, and surely people buy real estate and houses for themselves at least, because they can say at least they have a place to live, but surely houses are not very liquid and we still have to eat and engage in various other activities besides just having a house.. even though surely it is nice to have a house, but even if we completely own the house, some people run out of abilities to pay for the taxes (and/or other costs) of completely owning a house, so there should continue to be some value in terms of having liquid value, even surely there are ongoing attempts to attack bitcoin's liquidity, but I doubt many of us HODLers consider that bitcoin liquidity is going to be falling merely because there are various avenues in which rich people and governments are likely considering that they are going to have some success in terms of channeling normies into official financial products...

yet bitcoin does allow us various kinds of powers to transact peer to peer. .and likely there are going to continue to be ways to transact in those kinds of direct ways, even if there are going to likely be ongoing challenges too... where are we keeping our keys and have various avenues to interact been shut down.. an we run an app on our phone? or do we have to use the computer or do we have to resort to some other means of transacting?


I doubt that UnDerDoG81's purpose is to merely save money.  He is describing various expenses that he has and plus options that he has to upgrade if he wants to, yet he still chooses to live with a slightly smaller budget and to choose a bit less luxury. .and sure there is a balance with a combination of savings and choice of consumption.

I don't have any problem with the idea of relocating for less expenses and maybe even being able to upgrade your lifestyle by moving to an area that has lower costs of living, but at the same time, there tend to be quite a few costs regarding getting used to living in new areas - including that we would not be able to bring our friends with us too.


You are not really saying anything different from UnDerDoG81, except you seem to be presuming that the mere running of a budget and living within limits is a kind of great sacrifice - and sure living within a budget does bring sacrifice, but it does not necessarily mean that we perceive ourselves to be suffering or to unable to enjoy any luxuries. It just remains a matter of choice how many luxuries to partake and then the extent to which our luxuries might end up costing us more because we failed/refused to sufficiently and adequately defer gratification.

Let's say for example, I have gotten to 10 bitcoin, and I need a new car because it helps me to work and to enjoy life.  So if I don't have the cash to buy the new car and I need to dip into various resources and to cut my spending and maybe I only have to dip into less than 0.5 bitcoin to buy a practical car, I might be able to do much better for my longer term future, and maybe not even end up depleting my bitcoin stash by very much because I am able to continue accumulating BTC as compared to someone who might choose a more luxurious and easy path to end up spending 2-3 bitcoins to buy a more luxurious car and maybe not engaging in the various efforts to cut spending in other areas.

So maybe the person with the more frugal spending might be able to continue to accumulate bitcoin to get up to 12 BTC or so within the next 8-10 years, and the person who is continuing to make choices to spend more and to live it up might still be at 7-8 BTC (or maybe even fewer BTC) 8-10 years from now, and so even in accordance with my entry-level fuck you status chart, the person with 12 BTC may even get up to western entry level fuck you status in 2031 or so, and the person with only 7-8 BTC might not get there until 2033 or 2044.. and sure maybe I am presuming too many things, but still trying to give an example of how these kinds of matters can make pretty decently large differences with the passage of time.


Exactly!!!  It is gone.  It got pulled.


Yeah, but that is how these kinds of walls work.  They get placed, and sure, the person who placed it could have moved it and put it at another location, but usually if they are just trying to bluff the market, they might put the wall closer to the actual price, especially if the actual price is getting further away rather than putting the wall further away.  Another thing that can happen is that the wall will get put back in place when the BTC price starts to get closer to that $48k-ish price.  So walls that disappear are not necessarily permanently gone, and maybe one of the better case scenarios would be if the wall got put back in place at $48k when the BTC price was about to return to and to break through $45k, and so the wall is put in place as a kind of deterrent, yet maybe the BTC price rushes up so fast that the wall gets eaten up faster than it can get pulled... and even better if the BTC price keeps going past the price of the wall and does not return, which frequently cause problems for people (or institutions) that are placing those kinds of walls as mechanisms to deter rather than really wanting to sell at that price.


Yes. The wall might get reactivated at some point, and it could get put at the same price, it could get put at a lower price or it could get put at a higher price.. We will see if and/or when it comes back, and surely your little 24 hour revision does make it easier to catch as long as it might get placed over several hours, rather than getting placed and pulled right away.. which those kinds of wall-manipulation behaviors happen from time to time too.

I wouldn't call Bitcoin (or, perhaps, "Bitcoinism") a religion, although it may seemingly share some similarities with religion, mostly attributed to Bitcoin by those who don't understand it. It is not a religion, because it is based on objectively true, real-world, physical, repeatable, verifiable processes (i.e., math & science), and does not rely at all on dogma or faith in a metaphysical set of principles. Even the traditional (and scientifically acceptable) notion of "trust" is taken out of the picture ("Don't trust, verify!"), and this is precisely what makes Bitcoin so important, so revolutionary, so scientifically significant. Contrast this with religion, where everything is based on metaphysics, dogma, and blind faith in some supernatural, all-knowing, all-powerful entity, whose existence appears to be unprovable by design.

Blind faith in the success or superiority of Bitcoin, just because some fancy, self-proclaimed Bitcoin "priest" says so, is the wrong way to approach this (did you know that Craig S. Wright is [also] a theologian, and calls himself a "pastor"?). Satoshi Nakamoto is no God, and the White Paper is not some Bitcoin bible to be worshiped and blindly accepted as truth, but a scientific paper, open to scrutiny and experimental evaluation. This evaluation (which is extremely brutal, as there's big money involved) has been going on for nearly 15 years non-stop, and no fundamental flaws have been found. Even with such a great track record, I will be the first to reject Bitcoin the moment a weakness is discovered in its code base, that makes the code so fundamentally flawed that it cannot be patched. Surely, I will be deeply disappointed if this ever happens, but I don't expect it to happen any time soon, if ever.

This reminds me of Bitconnect (some old lulz here), where all the people in the video were effectively disciples of a religion/cult, driven by greed. And we all know what happened. Not with Bitcoin. This is science, not metaphysics, and those who see it that way are missing the point.

But I do see the logic behind the points you're making. Humans have a tendency to want to "belong" to some superior group, call it a society, cult, religion, whatever. So people may see Bitcoin as a kind of special club they want to belong to, even though they don't understand it. Come to think of it, still good for them if they become coiners, as long as they stick to BTC, rather than BSV, BCH, or other "crypto" varieties. That's why understanding is so important.

$50k? For sure there's a lot of possibilities that it will happen. The price drop didn't come to any worse situation and bitcoin stays at $43k to $44k so provably next stop is $50k and there's still many days left for this month.

Quiet positive for $50k is reachable this month.

On the lifestyle/retirement subject.

I was not in as early as many of you. I do not have retirement or fuck you levels of BTC stashed away.  Fortunately, I am what I consider to be "very young" with a very well paying career.  My sole objective has always been a responsibile early retirement. Retirement in the sense of not needing to work if I dont want to, no daily agenda of things I need to do other than necessities, and a comfortable lifestyle.  I'll add that I will also be an unofficial expat once retired.

I am fortunate enough to have existing retirement assets such as pensions, annuity, 401k, (ect).  All of those are not reasonably accessible to me until later in my life when social security is also available.  Simply put, 60-death I should have more than enough even if I make a few poor decisions or have an emergency or two.  My focus has been on filling the gap between retirement and "retirement age" with personal assets.  By current conservative estimates I am on target to reach my goal in 8-10 years which puts me at an age many would consider an unsually young retirement age.

My personal assets are composed of approximately 80% Bitcoin. I have treated it as an asset that I want as much as possible of because I believe it's value will be much higher in the future than now.  I project it's increase in value as the average stock market increase of 7-9% per year to keep myself conservative.  Meanwhile, it's proved to smoke those estimates to date.

I have not worked out or planned what I will do with my bitcoin once I have achieved retirement level funds.  I do plan to run through everything else before touching it though.  Honestly, I have hoped once I am at that point I won't need to sell it for cash to use.  I am hoping I can actually make direct purchases with it instead. With planning to do a bit of traveling it adds the utility of a being a worldwide currency as well.

I thought I would share this as a truthful post on how bitcoin fits into my life.  I know I and others tend to post extreme "hold till I'm dead" type of comments but, that's just the fun side of WO for me.  Thought this might be a helpful point of view for others who did not start buying BTC at $10 a coin.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I couldn't tell if the wall was out of frame or moved/pulled. It does seem to wash down towards the spread.  3 hour Wall recap

The wall could have also been sort of random.  If you've worked at a restaurant you might have noticed times that there were no customers for hours, and then out of no where everyone seems to just start piling in.  That was a pretty steep wall, but it was on a very round number.


Feels like it's out there somewhere, just biding its time.

I don't really like to subscribe to the theories of Bitcoin as a religion, but it seems that some of us can become the same way about bitcoin, and so to the outsiders (or the non-believers) or those who do not get bitcoin, we can come off in those kinds of similar ways in terms of our having a kind of vision that might not be shared by others - and so many times, even when people are seeming to be closed-minded and stubborn, they frequently will still like to consider themselves as being reasonable and open to a variety of views, but at the same time, are going to be wedded towards seeing the world through their own ways of framing matters... ..

so I am not sure, I am feeling mixed on the topic regarding how strongly even some people feel about their beliefs, because they might actually be open in regards to some topics, while at the same time being stubborn in other topics... and yeah, sure, I have met people who are irritating to be around.. and sure sometimes it might go back to seeming to be about religion, but I am not sure the difficulties of dealing with others is merely religion..  Of course, in recent times, we have been seeing a lot of political divides, and so worship of the state or being anti-state and then dividing of camps on these kinds of grounds, but then how much anyone divides or how much they believe their party might resolve their issues might depend upon which issue(s) we are discussing.. and looking towards leaders to rescue us from our broken money system while not necessarily recognizing that the various aspects of the broken money system might be the cause of the problems and/or disagreements about not getting enough, while at the same time blaming the problem on other kinds of ways that there are inequalities and differences of opinion regarding how the pie should get divided.


Yeah, but would "most of us" be trading - because I personally see certain possible resistance points, but I hardly even attempt to change any of my behaviors based on such perceptions of such possible resistance points, and this time around I have certain sell orders that go up every $500 when we were in the lower $20ks and below, and then it converted to every $1k around $32k, and then it converted to every $1,500k right around $43k and then  there are some various minor changes downwardly in the quantity that is sold around $50k and then converting into sales every $2k after going over $56k... and even though my sell increments are pretty tight, there is still some kind of expectation that the amounts are so small that I am not worried if the BTC price does not correct back down - even though surely I remain somewhat surprised that there have not been any major corrections since $27k.. but at the same time, I am prepared to accept that the BTC price could go up 3.5x or more (from $27k) without any major corrections.. and so either way it is o.k..   and surely there are a lot of guys that do not even attempt to play around with any kinds of sales prior to even higher prices, so those kinds of peeps are not going to be messing around with BTC sales prior to going back over the ATH.. which I would think a minimum of $80k and many times even higher than that.

So the "most of us" does not even seem to rise to the level of "many of us" - even though surely I could give you some benefit of the doubt for speaking for a certain circle of people that you choose to identify as a kind of "most of us."


I hate to characterize exactly what I believe the resistance to be at $50k to $55k, but I have somewhat of a difficult time believing that we could just end up going from $27k and passing straight through noman's zone.. .so it is hard to know, while at the same time, it seems most logical that anyone should be attempting to judge his own situation rather than merely using the BTC price as a guide, and if anyone has been accumulating BTC for less than a full cycle then they probably are not really in a great position to be selling any BTC, even if their BTC happen to be in profits.

Maybe one of the ONLY exceptions that I would see would be if someone might have front loaded their BTC investment in 2018, 2019 and/or 2020, then they would be in a much better position than the regular (and normal) person who is merely DCA'ing or otherwise just regularly accumulating for the past 4 years or less.

Even with your forum registration date, maybe we could consider you as being close to a full cycle kind of guy, but still even if you had been fairly aggressively accumulating BTC for the last 4 years at $100 per week, you would have invested right around $21k, and you would have gotten around 1.11 BTC ($48,840)- which still is ONLY around less then 2.5x rise in value. or around 150% profits.. and with an asset like bitcoin, I have my doubts about the extent that it would be worth it to be cashing out any BTC - unless maybe you had happened to front load your investment, like I already mentioned...

so for example the same kind of investment as I described above might be a person who started out and invested around $40k into BTC around late 2019 or early 2020, and maybe that person could have gotten anywhere between $7k and $10k per coin (so anywhere 4 BTC and 5.7 BTC).  So if we add those quantities onto the above investment, then there is a 5.11 BTC ($224,840) to 6.81 ($299,604), and so such a person who front loaded the investment would have more liberties to be shaving off profits at $50k, if so inclined, even though surely it could be better to wait another cycle and just keep accumulating. even though the person with 6.81 BTC and around $88,840 invested probably would be feeling good to potentially be getting to fuck you status (if we are using $2 million) during this cycle or maybe in the next cycle, so why screw up an accumulating technique if you are not yet at or near fuck you status?


It does not seem to be a great place for selling a lot of coins, even if you might have already reached fuck you status.. But surely if you had already reached fuck you status, then maybe you would just shave off coins at various points, like I mentioned in my sustainable withdrawal thread...  

At the same time, maybe you don't have the same entry-level fuck you status as I suggest to be the default western status of $2 million (which would be right around 69 BTC right now), and that same chart is showing that a guy that currently has around 6.81 BTC might not be entering default entry level fuck you status until around 10 years from now, and of course, maybe your entry-level fuck you status is not $2 million, and surely my numbers might be a bit conservative on that chart, too.. perhaps? perhaps?.


Nice to get out. For sure.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Freedom is what counts, NGU is a side effect that gives you the toys but you lose a bit of freedom with every toy you buy.



You forgot they are the biggest hypocrites that walk the face of this planet.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

is the wall gone?

Satisfaction

i have a charlie daniels band tshirt i bought in the 1980s that i can still wear

edit yes its been washed lol

AYH attained.
Everything's green on my screen.
Q1 should be fun.

Chopper's rising high,
Soon to reach $70k.
Elon's rocket next?

Buffett said it best:
Getting richer while you sleep.
Living while awake.

Pre-Halving action:
ETF, then God candle.
Then Halving top-up.

First they ignore you,
Then price gets to 6 digits,
Then you get the calls...

No coincidence,
That "religion" and "prison",
Rhyme well together...

Not much else to say...
Even with a U-shaped dick,
A coiner life's good!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

Why don't you move to a better place where things are much cheaper and the rent doesn't cost you 700 euros per month? In many countries people live for less then $200 per month and that life isn't just simple living but fully enjoyable living for that amount. I know in many places the rent for a whole house if around $100 to $150 per month where you can get 2 bed rooms and 2 bathrooms plus a 1000 sq ft area. If you purpose is to save money then my suggestion would help you better but if your purpose is to save your money and not utilize your Bitcoin earned wealth then you might do whatever suits you better.

We have got this life for one time only and we must have to enjoy it fully. We won't return to planet Earth after departure so it's not really needed to live below average life when you have the money that you can spend to acquire things that make your life more enjoyable. I won't say that it's fair to waste money but utilizing money is needed sometimes in order to have pure happiness in our lives.

I like seeing Bitcoin on the rise, but have this eerie feeling it will not mean much by the time it really takes off (hopefully wrong about that).


Yes, and it's even worse when not enjoying spending, turning into a jaded consumerist. Remind me why we do this again?

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

One interesting extra point about bitcoin and lifestyle.
Since owning bitcoin gives you no direct cash flow, in order to spend, you would need to sell bitcoin, which many bitcoiners find at least in part objectionable, 'cause "number is going up".
Personally, I am not sure how to deal with this: so far, I was selling very infrequently, then mostly re-investing in various assets.

There is also a difference between people who are still working (steady paycheck) and those on a fixed income (pension, social security, etc).
Right now, $1 mil in money market fund gives you 53K in interest yearly, so $2 mil would finance a middle class lifestyle (a bit more than $100K/year in interest) in most of US (not in SanFran or NY) without even a need for pension or social security (or they would come as a nice bonus). It is unclear how long will this situation continue, though.

There are some interesting places on the web to read about various ways to be retired with money: i sometimes lurk on the reddit.com/r/FIRE....a bit of snobbish attitude, but also quite interesting.
One point I read there: if you are working at a job you don't particularly like and your investment exceeds you work salary for many decades, like 30-100 years, then quit and retire to what you really like.
Chances are, you would make even more money with your stash and will be free at the same time.
Personally, this is not for me since I still enjoy working, but for many people, that's the "ticket".