Good luck with that. I have not yet seen the trend change, merely because we are pausing at the top for a while.... That is not unusual and does not necessitate any kind of significant correction of 40% or 50%, even though one may come, but 20% would be more reasonable, ... even though in the end, anything is fair game in bitcoinlandia... .
It's not much for the TA. It's the forking attacks, the FUD and announced terrorist crackdowns by TPTB (
https://www.coindesk.com/jeff-sessions-bitcoin-use-is-a-big-problem/ ), it's for the technical weak points of BTC (a hundred billions $ project kept alive by some voluntary full node runners? seriously?), and the fact that ultimately it's backed only by faith while every day new better and improved -and cheap- coins are made.
All this is telling me to not bet the farm on BTC, even if I'm still >80% in it.
No one is telling anyone to bet the farm on BTC; however, you talk about $3k as if it has some kind of high probability of happening, and apparently your portfolio does not represent such pessimism. So maybe you should temper your language a bit to be better in line with your portfolio holdings rather than painting some kind of doom and gloom scenario as if it were pending and imminent.
Actually, I agree with your point that a 50%-ish correction is not necessarily unrealistic, but we already had a 40% correction, recently, and there still remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the severity of the threat of any of the upmanship attacks on bitcoin... yeah they keep upping and upping the ante in terms of their attempts for destruction and disruption, but in the end, are these threats going to materially play out in a meaningful way? In that regard, you better fucking hodl onto your coins because even if we are getting down, we may well get up before we get down... so you are going to want to sell some more priro to any potential 50% or greater correction - that may well come after a further pump - even a 2x pump.
So no one is saying that BTC is the be all end all coin.. or that these attacks are not likely to have any effect.. but it is a matter of when.. and what might happen first before the supposed calamity that you proclaim kicks in.