Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17289. (Read 26609689 times)

Me. (Obviously, knowing NL/Sirius, and they know Satoshi.)

You've been making these kinds of nutjob proclamations since about $300... but still bitcoin has continued to do quite well.

In your view, do you believe that currently there is some kind of problem with bitcoin?

What is your worry?  Scaling? or something else? 

Do you really believe some kind of nonsense out there about some kind of alt coin becoming bitcoin 2.0?  If so which one(s)?  Ethereum?  hahahahaha.. seems crazy, if anyone were to buy into those kinds of bullshit arguments that Ethereum is bitcoin 2.0.. is that your point, or do you have some other more profound point?

With $1500, you seem to be creating a high threshold for happiness.

Gosh, I am happy with anything above $800 - but yeah, sure $1500 is good too.. it's like icing on the cake of my lower happiness threshold.. actually, I probably would be happy, even if prices were somewhat below $800 - but yeah, don't want to create too much possible negative ideas... .

I understand that probably we continue to have decent upside potential  - even $3k+ on this particular upward run seems within the realm of reason.

At this point, getting past resistance in the lower $1600s and also getting past resistance in the $1800 to $2000 range would be necessary to get into the $3k to $5k range...

I would not be surprised in either direction, but I am kind of inclined to think that there is a decent chance for a correction before we get past the$1600 resistance.. 20% to 30% would not be unreasonable.. especially given the fact that we have not had any significant correction since $890...

I don't blame them... They buy any shit and see it rise, and buy and see it rise higher, and....

This goes to our lesson today, for those who don't already know: Free-Float and liquidity.

Free-Float: "Free float is a term in stocks trading. It describes the proportion of shares of a publicly traded company that is traded in the stock market. Note that not all free float shares may be actively circulating on the market at any given time as many traders purchase shares as a long-term investment."

Liquidity: "In the market, liquidity has a slightly different meaning, although still tied to how easily assets, in this case shares of stock, can be converted to cash. The market for a stock is said to be liquid if the shares can be rapidly sold and the act of selling has little impact on the stock's price."

So what do these two terms have to do with recent boom of the altcoins?

Let's just take Ripple as an excellent example of this... Ripple has one of lowest free float of all cryptocurrencies. That means that even if there is a gigantic numbers of coins (38 billions!) almost all of them are in the hands of the issuers/partners.

Only a minuscule amount of that 38 billion coins are in the exchanges for trade. How many XRP's do you or people you know have? Exactly... not much, if any. Yet the market cap has risen from around 200 million to around 5 billion now. That is an impressive 25x price increase in a couple of months!

How is that possible then? Well, as I said, only a very small of those 38 billion coins are being traded. So the price keeps rising while there is more people demanding that "scarce" coins that the issuer is offering to the market.

But, I can hear you: a 25x price increase? Fuck that, I am doing BIG money on it! Who cares about that free-float thingy?

Well, you should care, because that's where Liquidity comes to give you a reality lesson. As soon as the demand is higher than the offer, price can keep rising, but when that happens and more people want to sell, the ridiculous small free-float turns into a gigantic volatility that can easily undo most of the artificial and unrealistic high price. Not to mention what would happen if the issuer decides to sell some additional chunk on the market causing an epic dump.... but they won't probably do, cause that would be pointless considering the low liquidity.

This is where Bitcoin differs from most altcoins because:

1) The free-float, after all this years maturing in the market, is orders of magnitude bigger. And the only "scarcity" that there might be is NOT artificial, as it comes from LONG TERM investors. That is healthy.

2) The liquidity is also orders of magnitude higher. As this long journey has taken good care of most weak hands and short time holders.

Market cap means nothing unless we are comparing assets with similar free-float and liquidity.

In the short term you can profit greatly in altcoins, but in the long term everything comes back to an equilibrium point.

So yes, you could perfectly create a PokemonCoin tomorrow and fool everyone into believing its the next big thing.... until people want its money back and the castle crumbles.


* Not all altcoins are the same. There are also some fundamentals behind, and also some coins whose free-float is not that bad, but none compares to Bitcoin. Also, it is very possible to make some big bucks trading altcoins, even the shittiest PokemonCoin... but you can lose it equally fast. It's your game.

You are right. My bad. South Korea traders : RIP. Eth on the verge of collapse. Eth trader just think that its some space magic stuff. Now they are abandoning the ship to FOMO to xrp. After they got rekt in those 2 alts they will come wounded crawling back to join btc SegWit FOMO while the btc price is already up to 2k by then.

Actually the trading volume of yen to alts isn't that significant.  The South Korean won, however, has been hugely traded with ETH recently.  The main soar in Japanese trading has been with Bitcoin.  South Korean traders are the ones which are going to die.

Either way, someone's going to die.

them green walls are looking strong!

I think that some more experienced EU and US traders will make a lot of Japanese altcoin traders homeless very very soon. Meanwhile SegWit on BTC keeps crawling up. 50% in the next 2 weeks?

Japan thinks alts are Pokemon. They want to collect them all!

Agreed. BTC is just shaking the weak hands out to buy the altcoin tops, and then : POP! , and then SegWit on BTC , and then MOON, and weak hands got rekt once again.
SSDD.

Maybe not, I bet some are awakening already. In two hours the ViaBTC poll (https://twitter.com/ViaBTC/status/860933165002522625) ends and the results in favor of Segwit will be outstanding. I hope with that starts a change similar to what has hapenned to Litecoin in the past month.

Also the fact that Litecoin is about to activate Segwit will be an excellent test bed for the exceptics, plus we have already seen the effect it has already have on the price (almost 10x and rising).

Litecoin has shown that miner consensus is not only possible but also VERY desirable.

The scaling drama is way near to a resolution than has ever been before. And when that happens the rally will be epic.

Contrary to what deranged Eth shills claim, the "killer app" of blockchains is not "smart contracts".  The killer app of blockchains is currency.  The so called smart contracts are way down on the list and have no legal authority behind them whatsoever, so the best case scenario is that they would be used in a some niche market, legal arbitrage gambling cases.  

Eth is also completely centralized with no obfuscation of who is in control of what, so people involved in Eth are already acting as some form of illegal, unregulated legal services/gambling services for the people at the top of the pyramid, and people acting as transaction validators will mostly be in the same boat when it changes to PoS.  Eth is a scam and the only reason it went up is because they sent the illiquid asset premine they created out of thin air to Poloniex and margin leveraged it higher.  If 2017 is going to be the year of any altcoin, it's going to be litecoin.

Drop in BTC dominance, should wake up the miners and cause them to loose a lot of sleep, but seeing how short sighted they are with their BU push they're probably celebrating the recent rise and will continue with their power grab.

83% in january and february lol.

You seems like you have lost faith.
Thats good!
It means that I can load some weak hands coins soon.

Who here is old enough to remember BTC dominance?

So true:


YEAR 2007




YEAR 2008




* In case anyone doesn't know: Yes, the bills are for real. That's some serious devaluation in a short time, isn't it?

Stable? Ethereum's hardly that, once those coins stop being pumped into ridiculous price ranges and people start rebuying bitcoin we'll see price on bitcoin rise up again. That can't happen without SOME resolution to the scaling debate, though.

Bitcoin dominance has been lowered due to a few reasons like the transactions taking so much time and also due to blocksize debate, people are searching for other alternatives and going towards other stable currencies like ethereum.

This is the year of altcoins like ethereum and monero.

Volatility in Bitcoin is a myth anyway.  Fiat has only been less volatile so far because of their control from governments and banks, but decentralised systems with a limited supply are only as volatile as the amount of people that buy and sell it regularly.

If the liquidity of Bitcoin exchanges rose, the volatility would decrease to be less than most fiat currency.  It's inherently more stable than fiat in the long term.

Bitcoin Is Less Volatile than the Euro: https://fee.org/articles/bitcoin-is-less-volatile-than-the-euro/ ; don't invest in Euro more than you can afford to lose. Oh how the tide is turning.

I think that a lot of people thought it would heavily correct itself and thus also sold at the bottom. That's one of the reasons why this thread is quite. Consolidation at this price is very optimistic IMO. Now if miners/pools were to activate SegWit we'd probably see a very sharp rise within the year: https://twitter.com/ViaBTC/status/860933165002522625