Even if he manages to block segwit, those 2nd layer solutions are still going to happen. LN and other 2nd layer solutions do not actually require segwit.
They're beeing build around Segwit, they work so much better combined.
Finally, you make one out of three points that makes some sense.
1mb blocksize limits is the current state of bitcoin.. that is correct, and bitcoin was not meant to be easily changed. Therefore, 1mb blocksize limits seem to be the status quo going forward until there is some kind of convincing evidence and/or argument(s) that allows for it to be adapted in some kind of way, whether that is through seg wit or blocksize increases or any other "scaling" way forward.
I expect a 2-3MB increase with Segwit with another 30-40% on the horizon with integrated Schnorr signatures.
Flexcap is a clever algorithm instead of fixed blocklimit constant.
Core's roadmap is the way to go imo.
