Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.
A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.
I have been dwelling on this analysis from Windic and of course it makes sense.
If the miners go to market with the current volume, then they won't get the price they might from off exchange sales.
But with these sellers and the corresponding buyers
both off-market, then volume dries up. It also means the price is far more easy to manipulate by dumping a few every time it looks like creeping up and buying them back once the rise has been stopped.
This will only change if off-market demand exceeds supply.
But at first miners will just have more bidders and may just auction at higher rates, but still off-market.
The only way this situation changes will be if the large off-market buyers see the premium asked by miners as excessive and break ranks.
And these large buyers are not so stupid. So right now we stay in this equilibrium - large miners will not change it, they get guaranteed sales at market or slightly over and predictable, optimised cashflow.
Miners not selling off-market are supplying about what the market wants right now, hence (relative) stability.
So... what needs to change? Probably the point where it becomes inevitable that it WILL change.
At this point miners may hold and ask a premium - large buyers see the cosy arrangement is not going to last and then they start to break ranks and just land grab on-market.
So breakouts are being stamped on - it is inevitable it MUST be what is happening.
Once it looks like this amazing accumulation 'party' is over, the shit will hit the fan.
The longer it lasts the faster it will turn. And events, of course 'events' can be the calalyst for someone to blink.
And so it will begin - we will have our choo choos again.
Speaking of pool operators selling coins off-market, I wonder how many of them are robbing their members?
I believe Eligius is the only pool that gives participants their payouts via the generation transaction, and all the rest of the pool holds the earnings of individual miners in off-chain accounts.
Surely with miners, just like with speculators, there are probably a lot of them content to let the pool hold on to their coins for them. They don't understand that the number they see listed as their balance isn't the same as actually having bitcoins.
Surely there must be pool operators who look at accumulating idle balances and are tempted to sell those coins off to the hedge funds who want them so badly.
What's the real downside to going fractional on their deposits? When they get caught they can just claim to have been hacked.
