Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26450. (Read 26732137 times)

Date Registered:    Today at 01:56:52 AM

Oh, those telepathic messages 

the only way to know how this theory will work in reality is to sit-back and watch how things will develop, although it would be really hard to get "real" numbers, but estimates could do as well.

thats only true if poeple use bitcoin purely as way to transact.... this is FAR from relaitly

and because of this

1000x increased users = 10,000X price incress

i think he gets that


he can't be suggesting that people will want to spend BTC b4 fiat....

I clearly do since I've been warning you all for weeks about the impending downtrend and nobody listen!

Explanation

  being a perma-bull made you blind, what he is saying is crystal clear let me repeat it:

Not a completely bad point, but in order to compensate for growing adoption, V would need to keep on rising. Exponentially, to compensate for exponentially rising adoption/usage. Not likely. Probably impossible in fact, considering the technical limitations and tradeoffs of the network.

In a thread a while ago, I made a (relatively simplistic) argument that, if Bitcoin is used as a method for Internet payments (and only for that) on the order of yearly Paypal volume today - a comparably modest goal, I'm sure you'll agree - and making a few extremely conservative estimates for the necessary parameters involved (including V), we arrive at a valuation of around $2000 per unit. The single biggest not-so-conservative assumption I am making is that those transactions are actually taking place on chain, not off chain, which could be an (unfortunate, because trust requiring) development.

(Link to my post, the calculation is under Addendum #2)

Back to the topic: I set V_year = 10, which is a conservative value considering that actual velocity of Bitcoin is probably a lot lower currently.  M1's V_year seems to be able to reach into the range of 10 (WP link), but usually is lower, so if the Bitcoin network would be stable anywhere 10 it'd be a) pretty efficient, and b) the argument you mention, that increased adoption and usage doesn't lead to proportionally higher valuation, doesn't hold.

Yet another newbie knows it better! 

What bubble trend? We are already in a bear market. We have been for 8 months now.

pretty sure he means price will rise more then use, which is true, it will probably go twice as high as it should.

bulls still don't get it! the bubble has not been "pushed back". it's not going to happen!

people aren't going to magically start investing billions of dollars into bitcoin in November or whenever you'd like to believe just because of some bullshit numerology.

I couldn't explain it better than a member of the Slovenian Bitcoin Association, so I am quoting his post.

I really wish all of the trolls here could have been in Raleigh to listen to Edmund Moy (former director of the US Mint) speak about the history of money, the financial collapse, the bank bail out, and how he believes the bitcoin can be the next step in the progression of money and how now more than ever BANKS NEED COMPETITION and bitcoin can give them that. That and his promise that he will continue to use his contacts and influence to advance the adoption and understanding of bitcoin and what it can do for the global economy. In doing so he has asked for our continued support to be innovators, and essentially activists within our own communities to advance the adoption and understanding of bitcoin. It was actually a very inspiring speech.

If Bitcoin remains a niche, it has failed. It has not replaced the current monetary system. Then new people don't come, and the price also does not rise.

Our decision is to analyze, what is the probability for world domination. If it is anything more than 1%, it makes sense to invest quite a significant percentage.

The link in my original post shows the blatant absurdity in claiming that the new generation would never arrive, because they are already in the pipeline.

Still, even 1% suffices.

yes, lets use those shorts for another round of swaps and a pump to 580.

About 5500 shorted btc on BFX.  A short squeeze would take us to 625.

^ naw it's "hodlers" like Winklevoss...they have deep pockets to keep the ship afloat! jmo  haaa

Hodling but sad having no fiat to cover for Aug.

How do we know the consequence is inevitable that the next generation is 5-200million buying in?

BTC and SYS both 500 somethings ...   ~interesting imo~      

https://bittrex.com/Market/Index?MarketName=BTC-SYS

Yes, it can. But the prediction has to be based on valid logic, applied to factual observations: the rise does not happen because of the actions of the current owners (1-2 million) but is an inevitable consequence of the next generation (5-20 million) buying in.

Oh you who have so little faith (and logic )