The correlation lately of the bitcoin market with the U.S. stock market has been a little concerning.
I think Bitcoin is a risk asset and losely correlated with the broader economy, same as gold. (credit goes to waveaddict btw). That is, I believe if the stock market goes into the toilet, Bitcoin would have a much harder time than it has so far. It's probably something that you put money in when you have an excess, and pull money out when you lack it.
good news = price drop #logic
What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.
Can we have NO MORE SPECULATION ON THIS THREAD PLEASE!! is that what you mean?
Just checking.
Why, not at all. I much prefer it to low value content like pictures of whatever. I don't want to stifle anything. I'm just voicing my thoughts that maybe things are much more complicated with news than commonly thought. Maybe there is logic in what is happening.
Thats grand then... everybody continue to speculate...
I have wondered how a crash in the stock/bond market/market crisis would affect Bitcoin, if an event of some sort was to spread fear through the markets causing flight to quality.. how would Bitcoin be impacted? historically at such time Gold, USTB's and the Swissy and the Yen among others have been used as safe ports in a storm however in light of various happenings I cannot help but wonder in the next capital flight event caused by an event in the markets, if some of those traditional safe havens are no longer perceived as safe as before... (indeed the USTBs may already not have been perceived as such in 2008 either, and perhaps J.P Morgan accounted for much of the buying at that time)
Anyway in light of goings on I cannot help but wonder when the next event occurs in the markets, if this time around capital flight may not favour USTBs and possibly not the Yen nor the Swissy either, however Gold may fit the bill more so than recent past events. However two of the criteria that (depending on the crisis) make for suitable safe havens in such events are liquidity and stability... which arguably Gold could fit the bill, however at this point in its life cycle I do not see BTC fitting into the bill as stable enough or providing enough liquidity as it is at the moment for it to be perceived as a safe haven, so I am not sure money that NEEDS to be safe would head for BTC atm on a global scale. However, I do wonder how many people are over extended, and or would particularly move their funds out of BTC if there was such an event, i.e I am not sure how much capital flight from BTC would occur in such an event, and if some market participants did start to flee, would the demand be met by the BTC collective on the hunt for cheap coins? How many BTC holders are going to be in the group of having to close BTC positions in order to cover a looming margin call on other pairs they are trading I wonder? and how many are going to be already diversified into areas they are happy are safe havens (Gold,Bonds etc)?
In terms of news , I think it is quite simple, good news upon good news, and actually even bad news, so much goes on in BTC nowadays it is hard to peg any individual item as the cause for anything… however the pressure from the news, and its effects do have ramifications as they build up.. ie after a year of good news for example, this will affect the market but perhaps later down the line… because much of the news is “infrastructure/ecosystem is being invested in developed and built” from which we have to wait until said infrastructure has been put in place and developed before the market reaps the benefits from said developments… or the news is essentially to do with legal developments , which likewise slowly but surely are inching forward.. and ditto for adoption both merchant and individuals, the more companies the more exposure the closer to ubiquity BTC becomes… Rome was not built in a day, and I think that the market is starting to mature somewhat and become less reactionary to news, however this is a case of “ if you build it they will come” and all of these developments in my opinion will continue to build pressure until the next meaningful waves of developments are in place and that drives the next meaningful wave of adoption, and the price will have little choice but to break upwards… we are in the process of building that next wave now, and have been for the past half a year or so (seeds were of course being sown way before that)
The seeds have been sown… soon the rewards will be reaped.
p.s sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words...
