good news = price drop #logic
What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.
What is confusing about Bitcoin is that good news has no effect on price, but bad news sends the price down
In my view, that's because because of sentiment and technical analysis. Unless we're in a parabolic chasing new alltime highs (which is most of the time), positive news usually have little effect, simply because we're usually neutral or bearish then.
Here's one way to think of sentiment: When the pool of bullish people has been exhausted and noone has money left to buy, then we have a whole bunch of cheerleaders screaming moon train while building up insane expectations that inevitably, in most cases become disappointed simply by the price not moving for too long, or even moving counter their expectation. This creates disappointment, and now you can imagine what happens progressively as people start realizing their profits as the cognitive dissonance becomes too much to bear. Eventually, irrationality to the upside is followed by irrationality to the downside because so much disillusionment has been bred. To move up now, we need a good deal of this irrationality to the downside, or we need new bulls with new money because right now, we're trading pretty much the same USD back and forth.
tl;dr When shit isn't going parabolic, noone really cares too much. That's just how we humans are with regard to super volatile risk assets like Bitcoin.
