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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26490. (Read 26608432 times)

legendary
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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
An anonymous benefactor wrote up a trading algorithm for the unbanked ATM concept. Still needs to some work, but the basic concept appears to be sound:

https://gist.github.com/anonymous/e1f2dfb2b5b8d8a87aec

Following with great interest!
legendary
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
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Merit: 500
Another day goes by and the accumulation rolls on.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
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full member
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Merit: 100
I am very bearish in the near-term. A whale has pretty obviously set up a bid wall that is so substantial that it shouldn't be breached or tested in order to sell off his holdings in front of that wall at an artificially inflated price. However, even with that market manipulation, the wall was tested and broken leading the whale to establish a wall twice the size now. Moreover, even with what is visually an insurmountable wall, the price has nonetheless stagnated -- we normally get a pop when we know it looks like there is a floor on the market.

Thing is, there was never anything to indicate that. On the first dump, the bids had been sitting there for days, then were immediately replaced at spread. This means they absolutely weren't fake, as shown by the second dump and subsequent refilling of the bids.... This guy is accumulating and has no interest in selling for pennies gain. He is trying to turn the market singlehandedly -- whether he will succeed, I don't know. But with Huobi's liquidity and volume, that would be the place to do it.

If he keeps this up, sellers will get exhausted. And important to note, the total lack of ask depth near spread in combination with the bid walls, means a lot of bears are caught out of position. And Huobi has margin too -- who knows how many of those sells into 3600 (and slightly below) were shorts?

Interesting. My interpretation of the situation is almost the exact opposite just because by having the huge wall he is essentially increasing his cost of entry by holding the market up... the only person/entity that would have such an interest to do that would be an exchange. On the flip, you are right that the shorts are getting murdered right now waiting... also a lot of them probably abandoned ship because there is usually a bounce after a wall of that magnitude has been inserted. I guess what was more puzzling to me is the lack of volume, particularly upward volume, following placement of the wall. I mean, everything is in place to go up, but it seems like people aren't biting and that makes me wonder about their appraisal of the current value or near-term prospects.

I might be wrong though and your point is a very valid interpretation also.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
So.... I sold a few dollars above this level. And I'm getting kinda nervous. How many people like me do you think there are, waiting to get back in? Cheesy
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
I'm ready to see some walls like this.

yeah, i wish. not at these prices. been a long time since i've seen a bid wall over 1000. Undecided

well, then there's this huobi guy, but price doesn't follow....
legendary
Activity: 2380
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
I'm ready to see some walls like this.

newbie
Activity: 21
Merit: 0
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
I am very bearish in the near-term. A whale has pretty obviously set up a bid wall that is so substantial that it shouldn't be breached or tested in order to sell off his holdings in front of that wall at an artificially inflated price. However, even with that market manipulation, the wall was tested and broken leading the whale to establish a wall twice the size now. Moreover, even with what is visually an insurmountable wall, the price has nonetheless stagnated -- we normally get a pop when we know it looks like there is a floor on the market.

Thing is, there was never anything to indicate that. On the first dump, the bids had been sitting there for days, then were immediately replaced at spread. This means they absolutely weren't fake, as shown by the second dump and subsequent refilling of the bids.... This guy is accumulating and has no interest in selling for pennies gain. He is trying to turn the market singlehandedly -- whether he will succeed, I don't know. But with Huobi's liquidity and volume, that would be the place to do it.

If he keeps this up, sellers will get exhausted. And important to note, the total lack of ask depth near spread in combination with the bid walls, means a lot of bears are caught out of position. And Huobi has margin too -- who knows how many of those sells into 3600 (and slightly below) were shorts?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
bitcoin is going to 5,000$ haters gana hate.

It may... I think $2000 is a more reasonable one year high water mark (just for psychological reasons... obviously it wouldn't seem high if you were looking at mBTC or market cap, but the average Joe won't look at those).

However, not this week.

Signed,
Random Paranoid Dude who Loves Bitcoin but is still a Random Paranoid Dude
legendary
Activity: 1904
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Trusted Bitcoiner
bitcoin is going to 5,000$ haters gana hate.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
I am very bearish in the near-term. A whale has pretty obviously set up a bid wall that is so substantial that it shouldn't be breached or tested in order to sell off his holdings in front of that wall at an artificially inflated price. However, even with that market manipulation, the wall was tested and broken leading the whale to establish a wall twice the size now. Moreover, even with what is visually an insurmountable wall, the price has nonetheless stagnated -- we normally get a pop when we know it looks like there is a floor on the market.

So, this says to me that for all of the optimistic words on here that the average bitcoiner is not all that optimistic in the near term (weeks ago we would have thought of these prices as a steal and with the floor, if the market was steadier, you'd know the price couldn't go lower). Thus, exactly what sort of hell is going to break loose when the whale pulls the wall after selling off his load?

That's my take on what we are looking at. I traditionally lean bearish (on all things -- it's a personality trait), though, so take it with a grain of salt.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
An anonymous benefactor wrote up a trading algorithm for the unbanked ATM concept. Still needs to some work, but the basic concept appears to be sound:

https://gist.github.com/anonymous/e1f2dfb2b5b8d8a87aec
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