The main question is, will we have an exponential bull run again lasting 6-12 months and starting later in 2024 or the first half of 2025? What are the objective prerequisites and obstacles to this?
Prerequisites:
1. The presence of ETFs, which include many institutions in the market that would not otherwise participate in the retail market.
2. The changed attitude of large financial institutions and politicians. For the first time, the issue of the US government buying and holding bitcoins as a strategic reserve was seriously raised.
3. The usual impact of the halving on market equilibrium.
4. Since February, there has been a decline in bitcoins in exchange wallets, from 2.72m to 2.39m. If this trend continues, theoretically after 4 years the wallets will empty. This means that long before then, there will be a significant rise in price. This is the so-called supply shock. How much longer can it be delayed? It is possible that this could go on for a few more days only. Possibly months, but hardly more than 6, when bitcoins will drop to around 2M.
Obstacles:
1. Recurring sales of large amounts of bitcoins by the US government and others (my country Bulgaria also has about 200K bitcoins, for which sales nothing is known about.)
2. The usual influx of indians with leveraged long positions who squeeze out every daily percentage rise and so stopping the price growth.
3. Other factors like FUD, wars, market crash etc.
It should be noted that obstacles only delay the bull market in time, making it to be more ominous. As for the peak of the bull market, it has always been determined by a single factor - when the Coinbase server will crash. And I'm not joking! Yes, it's not in any financial textbook or TA, but it is a fact that every local peak in the last 7 years has been marked by a crash of Coinbase, followed by an immediate crash in price. This is ridiculous and unfortunate because it is the very truth. The unwillingness of Coinbase to invest a few thousand bucks and replace their obsolete servers is leading to billions in losses all over the world. That's why no one can make a reasoned prediction about the peak of the bull market, only lucky guesses.
When planning sales, one should consider the lowest possible values - there to sell for immediate needs, and the highest - for extras. My lowest in case of a premature crash is
200K and highest is
400K. There may also be a supercycle with a double top with these values. That's my estimation of the Coinbase servers stamina only, otherwise I have no doubts that price over 400K is achievalbe in this (super) cycle.