We will go up in about 6 hours, when Nvidia posts +- 10% up on target earnings.
Probably back to 64K I guess.
So stupid.
Maybe.
I tell you this BTC seems to be stuck in a track and it is getting to look like the 1989 to 2005 gold track
year--- low--- high
1989---358---417
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004--373---4552005--411---537
2006--520---725
2007--608---841
2008--692---1,023
gold tracked in a slot for over 15 years and breakout started in 2005
Is btc going to track like this 30-70k for a dozen years.
The only thing pointing against this is mining just adds gear and grows like mad.
REAL btc Coins don't grow like mad anymore, but fake coins grow a lot.
It feels like BTC is tied into a slot
There surely are some problems in your thinking Philip. You seem to be wanting to tie too many parallels to things that you know, yet your conclusions seem to inadequately account for bitcoin's paradigm-shifting properties.
Yeah, there are likely powers that be who are going to try to contain and control bitcoin, and sure they might have moments of seeming success, and even some of the characteristics of stable coins seems to be transitioning into CBDC lites.. with various kinds of increasing government controls, and maybe even some back doors.. considering tether..and some of the taming going on with Binance and its various products.
Bitcoin seems to complex to try to completely pigeonhole, and of course, bitcoin shares some properties with gold, even though bitcoin is around 1000x or more better than gold, so we should be attempting to account for that too..
And yeah various financial products attempt to dilute bitcoin's supply, and I am not even going to claim to know about all the various ways that coins are both faked and that the faking may or may not be able to have some short-term success versus just continuing to experience various kinds of dancing and blowing up (maybe even behind the scenes) from time to time.
Even with all the attempts at analyzing bitcoin from a variety of parameters and attempts at changing frameworks, we don't really have any evidence that bitcoin has even fallen outside of the 4 year fractal pattern, so that even if the slopes of the exponential growth periods might feel or seem to be increasingly less and less exponential and more gradual, the powers of ongoing adoption, Metcalfe principles and network effect continue to dominate even if some folks might try to put bitcoin into some other framework, which the gold one is additionally offensive since gold is largely ongoingly demonetizing (including that gold was continuing to go through such demonetizing throughout the period that you pointed out 90s, 00s through present) as bitcoin is monetizing, and sure maybe some folks consider that gold is going to remonetize, that just does not seem to be gold's fate, especially when accounting for bitcoin having had been eating gold's lunch in the past 15-ish years, and likely continuing to do so for the next 50-200 years, even while there may continue to be uncertainties in the movement during periods that we are caught within such movements (and hopefully we are mostly holding and accumulating bitcoin rather than taking other actions to deplete our holdings).
First I am not a gold fan.
and as for eating lunch last 15 years.
lets look into 2009 to 2024 marketcaps
jan 2009 btc lets say 1,000 usd at less than 1 penny a coin
aug 2024 btc lets say 1,200,000,000,000 usd at 60,000 a coin
so 1000 to 1.2 trillion in ratio is great but in total value it gained 1.2 trillion
what was gold in jan 2009 822 price about 5.6 trillion with an estimated range of 4.3 trillion to 6.5 trillion
was was gold in august 2024 2519 price cap of 17.2 trillion with a estimated range of 13.6t to 20.4t
so yeah btc went up from a cap of 1000 usd to 1.2 trillion in 15 years.
and gold went up from 4.3 / 6.5 trillion to 13.6t/20.4t
so yeah price wise btc was a penny and gold was 822 usd in 2009
and at 60,000 to 2,500 price wise btc whaled smoked crushed gold.
but total value gold gained far more maybe 9trillion to 1trillion.
and gold will not lose value if mining stops
while btc will lose value if mining stops.
So we can brag and love our btc . and I hold a good amount of it. but don't think gold is losing in terms of market cap it is still gaining every year.
