Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27724. (Read 26711860 times)

Explanation

Hi Octa, I think no one can tell anyone about this kind of stuff.  I think you can make suggestions and observations, but this kind of stuff is so far beyond most people's reasoning that it is pretty much a waste of time trying to explain it.

 I didn't mean to imply that looking at previous threads would have any meaningful impact on the level of understanding of an individual (although it probably would) - what I meant to convey was the idea that -in today's world- a person's consciousness will tend to reject ideas that are not placed there by TV and gov't. I'm trying to say that this is the kind of stuff that you really need to figure out for yourself, because it is completely different from everything you've ever been taught or told.


anyways, the way that I try to tackle the problem is first I try to first understand or identify the limits of the technology, then try to understand the ramifications of the implementation of this technology in our current system. after that I might try to imagine the impact going forward... after the mass adoption and infrastructure has been built.

Aminorex: There are a lot of websites and webpages explaining about Bitcoin. If the statistical data is not public (only a few are), i figure out on what type of machine the website is running. Depending on the type of machine, i use common techniques such as remote resource load monitoring trough webserver response times to create an index number based on the difference compared to average load at stable times.
It looks like the data is dominated by the wikipedia page statistics, yet it is weighted relatively low considering it is linked within many of the other resources i get the data from.
It takes some work to consistently get an evenly weighted index number for the graph due to sites disappearing and new ones being made. To be honest, it is quite a mess due to lack of interest on my part to keep up   but hey, i'm a hacker (the good kind), not a financial analyst  

Klondike_bar: The script has been monitoring (and mirroring) this data for bitcoin, litecoin, peercoin and feathercoin since about june 2012. However, the data folder is over 1300Gb and the code to analyze it is slow, even after a lot of efficiency updates. I'ts not exactly high end hardware. I have it running right now and i was wondering the same thing as you, so the last couple of days i'm spending my time trying to speed up the process.

tl;dr
Used some fairly unknown techniques to get usage data from websites combined with publicly available data.
Hacking around my code to speed up the 1TB+ of data filter to generate graph back to april 2013.

With a link to an interesting article:
http://www.ofnumbers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Learning-from-Bitcoins-past.pdf

But... But... It was debated recently enough (again) in this very same thread!

Explanation

No one can tell him this kind of stuff because I suspect at least half the people on here act like they know the answers, but don't. You can spot them easily by the "look at the previous threads," which to me means "look at the previous threads, but I totally never did because TO DA MOON!"

dude, I get that you're new, but I think you just don't quite get what this means yet. You're well on your way, and no one can tell you this kind of stuff, you really need to figure it out for yourself.

good luck

If I agree with you that bitcoin will go to 0 because of the merchants selling the coins , do you agree on not asking the same question again and again ?

apologies prof, what I mean is that fraud or corruption "within the bitcoin system" is almost impossible.

"within the bitcoin system" I simply mean to indicate bitcoin-only transactions, which are completely transparent on the blockchain.

I am positing that all of the fraud and corruption happens at the conversion level, and is a symptom of the level of corruption that exists in the current system.

Guys, if you dont care that merchants are not holding onto their coins.....and not many new people with fiat are arriving in the system...do you think current price levels are sustainable? Merchants care about USDs received from your purchases and as third party services are selling your coins = eating what little fiat there is left, shouldnt the price drop in the long term?

I don't know what you mean by "regulate bitcoin" or "inside the bitcoin system", but fraud in bitcoin-only enterprises and investments is absurdly common, even of we ignore MtGOX and other exchange scams.  For example, Danny Brewster was able to pull the Neo & Bee scam because its shares were sold for bitcoins through a Panamanian company that was not registered as a stock exchange, not even in Panama.  He probably would not have been able to do a real IPO with ordinary money on a regulated exchange; his past "career" in the UK and the lack of a real business plan would have been exposed.

http://www.coindesk.com/what-block-chain-analysis-tells-bitcoin/

Summary: capitulation from last December's bubble hasn't even begun.

back on topic, this flatness is sucking big time.



I'm sure you all remember the this song


here is a slightly more upbeat version, I skipped to the proudhon song part, I recommend you go back to the beginning and listen to the whole thing, if you're bored.
http://youtu.be/K3zV4V4jZTk?t=51m

Yes, it does make it easy target, Mark.     I too have been reading mostly this thread.    Miners have a huge reason to keep the price up so their mined coins pay off over consumed time, electricity and purchased HW.

If you try to manipulate the market , you need a bit of volume to do so and that will wake up both bears and bulls changing the whole picture.

And I was just going to nominate you for the job.
Such disappointment.

Hello,

I've been reading (only) this thread for some time now and would like to pose a question for discussion:

Doesn't the current low volume conditions make this market a potential "easy target" for someone (or some entity) to manipulate it for profit?

Seems likely to me.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts on this.

Mark

User @JorgeStolfi tried to do that for a while, but gave up some time ago, partly because he found that several large Chinese exchanges (perhaps 30% or more of the total) were not listed in any convenient source, not even in bitcoinwisdom.

alright Jay, in that case my last 5 purchases were:
1- cointerra box - 3 months ago - (has already arrived only doing 1550 GH/s currently because one core likes to go to 120C and then reboot the machine, at 7 level it only reaches around 90 and the thing seems stable, I'm going to experiment this weekend what level it needs to be at to run from one single 15A 110V standard NA connection)

2- neptune - 6 months ago ( but now I get 2 for 1 apparently, someday, maybe, wheeee! but still nothing tangible has arrived)

3- some hookups to make power supplies run when they're not connected to computers - *I think it was from Cablez, but I can't remember, that was like a year ago

4- mostly donations to bitcointalk members like arepo and organofcorti

5- I bought a bunch of second-hand video games that I've never played from some online vendor that was operating back in 2012, they got at least 50 BTC of my business.

but this brings me back to my rant, there should be no push to regulate bitcoin itself - it is self-regulating. The only thing they should be looking at is the conversion into and out of the fiat that they have jurisdiction over.

more than that, it is almost impossible to perpetrate fraud inside of the bitcoin system. -- the exchanges between the currencies should probably be regulated, but I think the main point that regulators need to understand is that bitcoin network itself is self-regulating and needs no oversight (also they couldn't effectively regulate it if they tried, but that's another discussion)