Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28138. (Read 26710240 times)

an equally good question, how many bitcoins are left on the exchanges?

large players that are accumulating off exchanges due to broken trust could be holding a lot of coins right now. there may be a surprise shortage for short bears.

I'm not changing my position on this.

Either there is enough fiat sitting on the sidelines in exchanges to put us into a bull market or we are still in a bear market. I just do not believe there is enough new fiat coming in to take us anywhere far.  I do think that new fiat will catch up in the months to come, but right now this just feels like a collective effort of traders pushing the price up because they so strongly want to believe post-340 means bull.

We have been above the linear trendline in Houbi for 2 days. However, that trendline has been broken and readjusted over 4 times since the bear market started. We sit right on the linear trendline of Bitstamp and still a good ways below the logarithmic trendline on Stamp.

How far can old exchange money take us?  600? 650? I don't know. But even if we get there, it doesn't mean we are in a bull market long term.

I still believe we test 400 one more time. And all it would take would be some more news from China. And who here believes we have heard the last from there?

This rally has all kinds of red flags on it. I am willing to be wrong, though, and if I am it will be a great learning experience. I'd love to load the boats to $2000+, but something just feels really off about this right now.

I do believe that we became way oversold - basically the opposite of what is happening now - traders just turned in their BTC for fiat temporarily. But now everyone is leveraged long. How much fiat is left and how far can it take us?

That is a fantastic record so far. Congrats. My experience with bitcoin has been one of getting a (sometimes costly) education, but wouldn't change it for the world..

Explanation

yeah the loot to be had by holding is fantastic. I always hold 80%, and day trade with 20% on leverage. managed to almost double my position so far.
when learning about EW or TA, best to remember that they all have fundamental motives. it's pretty ambiguous otherwise.

No... far from it, but I'm interested in learning more. I'm a very early adopter who is mostly holding cold storage but without reason to panic sell even in deep, sustained drops. Happy trading!

This is the 3 day chart. I think the big money is concerned with much longer time-frames than the "day trader" reading his tea leaves 15m charts with great skill. The battle ground has been well defined by massive volume on the two big down spikes and then the test of 430 with the spike down to skin some bears. If we can stay above this $520 range and reject a re-trace we can be in business to start planning Apollo 14.

Yeah, I see. it's really uncanny..... are you an EW analyst? this market has been a pleasure to trade.

Looking at the 2y log chart on stamp there are almost identical features in the price movements between Apr13 bubble top to late June and ATH 'til today. The longer view may hold some clues but also may obscure the finer details of price movements. Pretty cool though.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/wy1693hljko9qct/june2013log.png

Risto - my understanding (from comments read here) is that BTC infrastructure is far from robust and BTC itself is still basically in beta.  

As for bullishness/bearishness -- really, its a pretty dull and misleading set of terms anyway.

Even when you were 'bear' your long term outlook was 'bull' (as it were )....my point was more that you and Aminorex in particular have a vision of BTC that is on the extreme scale of adoption scenarios.

blood in the water! =\

emotionally unstable teenagers do not lead the market.... they are lead by the market. the whales are always there, dont forget. this chart is behaving very naturally.

crash back to 460 is what I would like the most. which means, least likely to happen 

Explanation

yayy happy bday oh delightful adam's thread ^^

At this time it could be anything, to be honest atm it feels like this market is led by some emotionally unstable teenagers.

yes bear trap, could be a good one.

bear trap incoming!!!

 Today's a Special Day.

~> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336
"Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
April 16, 2013, 10:32:22 PM
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 Happy 1-Year anniversary, Oh Great Thread of my eternal amusement thru the endless cycles of watching charts move.

<sub>I feel so excruciatingly dumb, so embarrassingly inept. I mean this is ultra-basic internet/computer use 101. You DON'T save a giant email or forum post content w/ tons of data, merely in clipboard. You keep saving it to HDD in notepad or w/e, every 5min. But I just did, & then forum had logged me out, & when I came to log back in I forgot I only had this WHOLE post text only in clipboard, hadn't hit preview, hadn't saved a draft..so I had better not CTRL+C some other sht, but indeed I did, then immediately realized it & wanted to break the keyboard on my witless head =/

 Now it's all gone. Lol o.o Hours wasted. Not that anybody shld giv a fk 'cept for me, just thought I'd share ;9</sub>

You entered a total return swap at, say, $100 BTCUSD.  The return on the nominal bitcoin when BTC is at X$ is $(X-100).  You own 2 BTC.  If BTCUSD drops to $10, then you own $20 in capital.  You owe $80 in returns on the nominal bitcoin.  Your position is net $60 in the hole (and you also owe the interest on the swap).  Actually, you would have been stopped out before that, while your position was still worth $13.