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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28140. (Read 26710273 times)

hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000

I agree. But the general infrastructure is robust: excessive measures by any single exchange hurt that exchange more than anything, and therefore the competition keeps them at check.

My "permabullness" has lasted for exactly 50 days now. Before that I was a bear for 97 days, almost twice as long!


Problem is that Bitstamp are the only large exchange that I don't think are operating a fractional reserve Bitcoin operation. Bitstamp has always required 3 confirmations before any BTC transaction is verified. Both Bitfinex and BTC-E have credited transactions before a single confirmation in the block chain. I say it is likely that both have been hacked and robbed. The $100 flash crash on both these exchanges is certainly an indication that something very amiss has affected them both.

In short, I trust Bitstamp as a safe place to have funds lying around but think everywhere else is dodgy as fuck.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 526
🐺Dogs for President🐺
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Circle gets the Square
This is the price to be paid for an exchange that is less likely to be shuttered. Why not use LBC or BTC-e?
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
I've thought over my trading history and realize 80%-90% if my profits are all made during new-ATH rallies and the huge crashes afterwards. I perform very poorly during bear markets and consolidations, and make bank during the rally/crash conditions, doubling my coins exponentially every week. So I should probably just make a resolution to only trade during those short 2-3 month time periods and then leave whenever there is a bear market. Maybe I use the 1W MACD to determine this.

Of course you do. Any mug can make gains when liquidity is pouring into the market. In a bear market when liquidity is being drained from the market, only those ballsy and disciplined enough to sell and buy the utmost extremities of the trend line will make money, other than that the odds are stacked against you and you are just whale fodder. I made most of my gains from Nov 20th onwards up until mid Dec (I sold high and got very lucky with buy-ins at near base of Dec 5th crash). Since then profits have been low and my recent max leveraged short trade that I opted to finally hold out on, got absolutely fkn slaughtered by the time I tapped out which takes me firmly into net loss territory since 2014.

Lesson learned. Same lesson as is occurring in your head and the same lesson that countless others have been taught. Don't trade a blatant bear market. The result of this is more and more liquidity leaves Bitcoin until the point where the splashes made by greedy whales become less and less pronounced due to less and less liquidity reacting to them. No ultimate bottoming out of any market entailed a 45% swing from bottom within a few days, not even a past Bitcoin bottom.

Have also noticed that Bitstamp are becoming tighter and tighter with allowing deposits to register in peoples accounts. I sent over just $3K the other day and again, they are wanting me to 'prove' where I am getting it from. I told them to fuck off. I am getting my money back, I can't see how I am going to get any amount of money back onto that exchanges cos no way am I giving them any personal details of the description that they are asking for. Bet there are quite as lot of Bitcoiners who are feeling the same. Not exactly conducive to increased adoption is it?


They asked you for 'proof', or they asked they asked you to make a simple statement on a KYC form?

Nope.

They wanted documentary evidence.....so I told them to shove it and I am getting my money back.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000


ALL MY BTC GONE *POOF* cryptsy banned me for asking why? GOOD GOD! =\

why what? They have been good in the past,  My withdraw all just happen to be lost pending atm.

edit: I fond this quote by The House of Rothschild has served me well in Bitcoin land. "Treat the stock exchange like a cold shower (quick in, quick out)."
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
If I were a famous multi-billionaire, I would charge 1 million US$ to donate an "undisclosed sum" (actually 1 US$) to any interested startup.  Wink
Wink That explains the run up in December then, you would do well in Bitcoin land, you have the eye for spotting scams.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
BTC = FREEDOM IS OUR ONLY HOPE!


ALL MY BTC GONE *POOF* cryptsy banned me for asking why? GOOD GOD! =\
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
BTC = FREEDOM IS OUR ONLY HOPE!
CRYPTSY HACKED!!!! LOL  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
Li ka shing is bearish on China... what does that mean?
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
If I were a famous multi-billionaire, I would charge 1 million US$ to donate an "undisclosed sum" (actually 1 US$) to any interested startup.  Wink
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Circle gets the Square
Normal service has been resumed. Thanks for flying Bitcoin!
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
btc-e whales are the ones pushing the price up  Roll Eyes



after btc-e pump up to 530's, huobi ate the sell wall

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
lotsa hidden sell orders on bitfinex...buy walls gone, but it seems to be fighting still...
lets see!
legendary
Activity: 1320
Merit: 1007
I think we can all agree, things will only get better from here.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 17

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-04-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3198 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 513 USD





Plot legend

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0005, W = 0.995); Huobi's clients slept soundly after a hectic day.  The last three points are far from being aligned, so fitting a straight line to all three them seems unjustified, and using only the last two seems too risky.  Instead we assumed a shifted decaying exponential A + B*Q**(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/14, A = 3202.5, B = -283.56, and Q = 0.24883 (which is almost, but not quite, the same as repeating the last value).

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.23 CNY/USD. It was 6.23, 6.32, 6.38, 6.21 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 22:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Punished for being bull:

Huobi's predicted price: 3345 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3185 CNY
Error: 160 CNY (~26 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 529 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 511 USD
Error: 18 USD
 
NOTE: "Satisfaction guaranteed, or twice your load back."  -- sign on septic tank truck
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