Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28145. (Read 26710372 times)

Bullshit. CampBX has been around for over three years. It had excellent design and security for the time. It still does. It remained a backwater even with all the crap Gox put us through, Karpele's House of  Buggery remained the main exchange.

The Market cannot be wrong. The customer is always right or he's not you customer. The Market is the Market. We don't serve the market we want.. We serve the market we have. I'll jump to second market when there is a market there or if I find an edge. Not before.

Doesn't matter right now. Being American is key.

Volume? Volume is key.

I expect it to follow the same path.  That's why I'm not buying back for the time being.

And if trusting people are more or less intelligent based on language you are very mislead,  plenty of very cleaver foreign people posting that may not have a total grasp of the language.

language is a non-logical skill learned via repetition and imitation. Countless genii of pure logic, science and art throughout history were thought to be dyslexic and were poor at written language skills.

Albert Einstein
Galileo Galilei
Leonardo da Vinci
Steve Jobs
John Lennon
Jonoiv  (kidding)

to name a few!

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

These things are very sticky and something BIG has to happen for that to change.

It repeats itself until it doesn't. Until whatever is causing this to happen stops causing it to happen or is outweighed by other factors. Rationality is sometimes beneficial, but sometimes the safety of the herd is beneficial when predators are around. We have to have a healthy respect for our limitations as well as our abilities. There is the unknown and then there is the unknowable.

Bitcoin cost of production is too high right now relative to utility value. The speculative value to me and I imagine many others right now is negative. I don't have the tools to trade with confidence in this environment. I don't speak Mandarin or Cantonese. I'm very good with language, but Google translate does not allow me to pick up the subtle cues that give me a small edge.

My TA sucks, but my skill at language allows me to know who's TA to trust. The people I trust who are more skillful than me, and are intelligent and honest tell me not to trade, so I'm not trading. Bitcoin may be a fantastic buy for someone right now, but not for someone with my investment portfolio. Again, if the situation changes then my position will change, but not before that.

China is an unknown. in the amount of time I have, it is an unknowable. I'm hedging.

Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

One of the several things that make me skeptical of bitcoin's future is that its community resembles more a religious sect than a bunch of sane, rational nerds.

In order to sustain belief in their initial ideal, bitcoiners have developed a network of dogmas that is becoming increasingly intricate and increasingly disconnected from reality.

A substantial part of that theological edifice is meant to allow denial of the single most important fact about bitcoin:

CHINA SETS THE PRICE

To make the denial of this fact possible, bitcoiners pretend to believe, e.g: that almost all of the Chinese trade volume is fake; that BTC-China is the most important Chinese exchange (and the only honest one); that the November rally was due to some magical property of bitcoin that generates rallies at regular intervals, with exponentially increasing magnitudes; and a number of other bizarre dogmas.

Because of these dogmas, the main bitcoin chart sites still omit most or all the large Chinese exchanges (but they all carry the insignificant BTC-China).  Even when it is obvious that price changes are clearly due to Chinese traders reacting to Chinese news, the deniers blame "stupid sheep" in the Western exchanges for "paying attention to China" -- when in fact the Western exchanges are tied to China by arbitrage, and follow China no matter what their clients think, wish, or do.

I can't understand how people hope to succeed in day trading or long-term investment without taking this basic and all-dominant fact into account.  

On the other hand, it is easy to see why bitcoiners desperately need to deny this fact. Bitcoin entrepreneurs would not find investors and clients if they admitted that the value of their fundamental asset is decided and sustained by a legion of fickle amateur traders in China, who, a year ago, were all speculating on fermented tea or some other kind of tulip.  Libertarians do not want to know that their main "anti-government weapon" was taken over by a country that they see as the epitome of oppressive government -- and was reduced by that government to a harmless hobby, in one day, with a single decree.  And the old-timers, in particular, will never admit that "their" beloved bitcoin is no longer "theirs".