The bottom was there, final.
So...I can now be sure that we will never never ever visit 350$, right?
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28214. (Read 26710013 times)
April 14, 2014, 10:35:29 AM
So...I can now be sure that we will never never ever visit 350$, right?
April 14, 2014, 10:33:46 AM
The bottom was there, final.
Though, tommorow will be a special day. I sincerely hope things will go as I have planned. I bought a few more coins yesterday morning. I am 70% $400 range and 30% $700. I could SODL and make a little bit of profit, but shit, Yolo, right?
Though, tommorow will be a special day. I sincerely hope things will go as I have planned. I bought a few more coins yesterday morning. I am 70% $400 range and 30% $700. I could SODL and make a little bit of profit, but shit, Yolo, right?
April 14, 2014, 10:24:52 AM
Ok, for the curious here are the impromptu survey results averaged over all 14 responses :
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 5.54
So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.
As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 5.80
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 9.93
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 20.86
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 55.00
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 89.18
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 79.04
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 72.50
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 63.21
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 52.50
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 43.67
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 31.21
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 23.14
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 10.86
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 5.54
So the top range which the consensus feels strongly for is going above $1250 (63%) or at least $1000 (72%).
The next step up is a big step though at $2000.
As for myself I've only been price watching since June and trading since November so I don't feel confident enough to say.
April 14, 2014, 10:24:40 AM
Woke up to a nice boost in prices for both btc and ltc 
Woke up, looked at the price and thought "fucking whales".
April 14, 2014, 10:23:02 AM
Woke up to a nice boost in prices for both btc and ltc
April 14, 2014, 10:15:45 AM
0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at thatAnd in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
All of them? With no new ones appearing?
All over the world? i give that a 0.01% chance
April 14, 2014, 10:15:20 AM
How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
sub 1% total. 6 is not a case. in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.
"sub 1%" chance for Bitstamp going belly up because Unicredit suddenly pulls the plug, and prices plunging as a result (even if just for a flash crash from which we immediately recover)?
That's an awfully optimistic stance (and I say that as an active trader on stamp).
EDIT: in case this isn't clear from the above, and lest I be accused of "bear FUD"... there's nothing wrong with Unicredit and Bitstamp right now, to my knowledge. Don't panic. I just consider the entire banking/exchange situation to be somewhat fragile, so in my mind, there's a > 1% chance that things can go sour without much warning.
April 14, 2014, 10:14:51 AM
I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.
Mervyn, let me clue you. I am paid highly for financial analytics, and have been for almost a decade. I am pretty sloppy here in the forum because I'm not putting my real name on it, and its nice to relax and talk smack now and then - I need the de-stress sometimes - but I do know something about what I'm saying.
USD devaluation is one of the massive relative appreciation scenarios for BTC.
Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.
The meltdown of the dollar would currently bring down all the currencies thats value is strongly tied to it, and that includes bitcoin.
If bitcoin would get it's value elsewhere, for instance a major wheat supplier would accept BTC by itself, then there could be a different story. But right now, we don't even have small online stores, that want to accept BTC by itself, without BitPay, meaning without the support of USD.
April 14, 2014, 10:08:32 AM
0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at thatAnd in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
All of them? With no new ones appearing?
April 14, 2014, 10:08:18 AM
Ìt might hit ~$500.
Doubt it will go above tho.
Doubt it will go above tho.
April 14, 2014, 10:00:23 AM
April 14, 2014, 09:59:43 AM
0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at thatAnd in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
All of them? With no new ones appearing?
April 14, 2014, 09:52:10 AM
I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.
Mervyn, let me clue you. I am paid highly for financial analytics, and have been for almost a decade. I am pretty sloppy here in the forum because I'm not putting my real name on it, and its nice to relax and talk smack now and then - I need the de-stress sometimes - but I do know something about what I'm saying.
USD devaluation is one of the massive relative appreciation scenarios for BTC.
It's just a troll account. Really not worth your time my friend.
April 14, 2014, 09:50:32 AM
0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
Be realistic, case 4 has happened very recently and multiple times at that And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
April 14, 2014, 09:50:17 AM
I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.
Mervyn, let me clue you. I am paid highly for financial analytics, and have been for almost a decade. I am pretty sloppy here in the forum because I'm not putting my real name on it, and its nice to relax and talk smack now and then - I need the de-stress sometimes - but I do know something about what I'm saying.
USD devaluation is one of the massive relative appreciation scenarios for BTC.
April 14, 2014, 09:45:30 AM
How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
A bit of clarification needed:
1. unlikely to happen soon.
2. possible selfish miner attack, can be mitigated.
3. unlikely to happen soon.
4. possible in China.
5. quite possible after this rebound runs out of steam.
6. which economy, whole one or just the bitcoin economy (drugs, money laundering, capital control evasion)?
0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?
April 14, 2014, 09:43:47 AM
How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
true, i should change those to 1% for more clarity
but <0.5% rounds up to 0%
April 14, 2014, 09:42:22 AM
How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
A bit of clarification needed:
1. unlikely to happen soon.
2. possible selfish miner attack, can be mitigated.
3. unlikely to happen soon.
4. possible in China.
5. quite possible after this rebound runs out of steam.
6. which economy, whole one or just the bitcoin economy (drugs, money laundering, capital control evasion)?
April 14, 2014, 09:42:08 AM
Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
So if BTC goes below 200, it will surely go below 100? anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
Quick answer : IMO, yes.
Long answer : I can only imagine going below 200 if theres a massive panic. It would be under the 2011-2012 trendline (not mentioning the 2013 one). "China ban" + "Gox=Bitcoin=death" only sunk to sub-400.
That's why IMO going sub 200 would be happening only with really worst condition and fundamentals ; and as such sub100 as a spike seems equal probable to me.
April 14, 2014, 09:39:28 AM
How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down
sub 1% total. 6 is not a case. in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.
I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.
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