Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28215.

Mervyn_Pumpkinhead

legendary

Activity: 876

Merit: 1000

Quote from: aminorex on April 14, 2014, 09:35:43 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 09:32:12 AM

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total. 6 is not a case. in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: njcarlos on April 14, 2014, 09:36:06 AM

Chill with the massive quote trains guys. Takes 5 seconds to pare that shit down.

njcarlos

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Chill with the massive quote trains guys. Takes 5 seconds to pare that shit down.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 09:32:12 AM

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total. 6 is not a case. in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 09:31:10 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 09:25:43 AM

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 09:19:01 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 09:14:53 AM

Quote from: Todorius on April 14, 2014, 08:53:34 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 08:36:49 AM

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently.

And you went long? right?

It's a trade.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 14, 2014, 04:38:04 AM

Capital has to flow into the hands of competent managers for sustainable growth to happen.

That is so misapplied in this use that I don't.... It's obvious that allocating capital from a low margin operation to a high margin operation increases net productivity, if you take margin as a proxy for productivity. That is the transmission mechanism by which speculative trades can enhance allocation in a stock market, with multiple securities. I dont' think the ratio of btc/usd trading to btc/alt trading allows us to apply analogous reasoning to crypto markets.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: podyx on April 14, 2014, 09:26:26 AM

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 5%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 15%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 99%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 98%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 95%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 70%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 40%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 25%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 8%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 2%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256 is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

niothor

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 09:25:43 AM

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 09:19:01 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 09:14:53 AM

Quote from: Todorius on April 14, 2014, 08:53:34 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 08:36:49 AM

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently.

And you went long? right?

njcarlos

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

All that volume on Huobi and only 10% to the upside and starting to fizzle? That doesn't look good to me, on top of the fact that this "ATM" work around will not only take time to have any sort of legitimate impact, but will likely be cut off at the knees before anything materializes.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 14, 2014, 04:28:30 AM

There was a coordinated evaporation of buy orders this morning ...

Now you just sound paranoid. Exactly how does one "coordinate" an evaporation of buy orders?

roslinpl

legendary

Activity: 2212

Merit: 1199

Quote from: ChartBuddy on April 14, 2014, 09:00:24 AM

Explanation

450

I want to see faces of all those who wanted to dump our ♥ BTC

No more cheap coins

We are ready to launch!

Ignition in 9..8..7

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 5%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 15%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 99%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 98%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 95%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 70%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 40%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 25%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 8%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 2%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 09:19:01 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 09:14:53 AM

Quote from: Todorius on April 14, 2014, 08:53:34 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 08:36:49 AM

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently.

surfer43

sr. member

Activity: 560

Merit: 250

"Trading Platform of The Future!"

Quote from: Hen0xyd on April 14, 2014, 09:18:48 AM

Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

So if BTC goes below 200, it will surely go below 100? Cheesy

niothor

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 09:14:53 AM

Quote from: Todorius on April 14, 2014, 08:53:34 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 08:36:49 AM

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

Hen0xyd

member

Activity: 87

Merit: 10

Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Bronstad

member

Activity: 92

Merit: 10

Quote from: p0peji on April 14, 2014, 09:11:19 AM

Quote from: Bronstad on April 14, 2014, 09:08:25 AM

Quote from: p0peji on April 14, 2014, 08:55:55 AM

Quote from: Bronstad on April 14, 2014, 08:36:17 AM

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Want to bet 1 btc that price will not visit above 5000? You have a 5% edge according to your estimations.

Nah, there's a 45% chance it doesn't happen until Jan 1st, 2015. Not worth the risk Tongue

Either you stand by your estimations or you admit they are complete BS.

Dude, calm down. There are plenty of people responding to this mini-poll, go bug them. I have no insider knowledge, so like everyone else my estimates are "BS".

EuroTrash

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

For the moment it looks to me like we bounced against arepo's descending trendline.

niothor

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 08:57:03 AM

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 08:53:57 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 14, 2014, 08:52:08 AM

I was assuming that the whole purpose of this poll was that it was about the future and not in the past. Otherwise I would have made a snide remark about how 3 exchanges already visited $102.

3?

btce bitfinex mtgox

I didn't know mtgox was still an exchanger when that happened

)))
So , you're long and you keep up with those posts ?

bitgeek

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 251

Quote from: Todorius on April 14, 2014, 08:53:34 AM

Quote from: bitgeek on April 14, 2014, 08:36:49 AM

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28215. (Read 26710020 times)