Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28218. (Read 26709919 times)

I don't think that it is going off on a tangent if some people are telling you that you need B) in order to manage A) better... and part of the suggestion is courses.. .... yes, there is some of that going on, and I did NOT initially bring the conversation there.. but identified that was where the conversation was going or at least an underlying thread of such conversation.

Basically the current trend is a sinking ship. Ever since DECEMBER when the chinese millionaires who were trading on btcchina found out there was some problem with bitcoin and they ditched for good, never to return. What did return was some lower class traders and a bunch of fake volume on this new exchange called Huobi to make things look the same but they really weren't.

Even if Huobi doesn't get closed the larger trend will still continue after people realize that the volume was fake anyway. It may appear that the Chinese news effects the markets, but this is all sentiment based, causing alternating waves of boom/bust and hype/despair - a cycle within a larger downtrend. Nothing that happens in China will even affect the larger downtrend. China is all a mirage, and the downtrend was incepted in December.

So it's been doomed since then to have this slow and controlled bubble deflation. Now just look at the volume and the orderbooks on Bitstamp and btce - it is nowhere near enough to support a market of this size. So we are just on this endless slow slide down till the volume is regained - probably around $180. Long slow bleed to $180 is the current trend. The CURRENT trend...

That is of course, unless something intervenes. If new trustworthy markets opened and gain volume, then the trend will be reversed more quickly, and the target will be much higher.

Preferably like I just did, by including the text for readability.



The exercise would force you, for once, to make a post that can be mathematically analyzed.

If it could not be predicted, why is it that I constantly make money by predicting it? I am here to help you, so unless you get paid really well for distracting, how about start listening!

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 20%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =75%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 65%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 50%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 25%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I cannot recall trying to convince anyone to buy... but I have been making assertions that I have been buying BTC all the way down including at around $550 and lower and even higher.  i have been buying BTC since $1200.  Yes, I have said that many times - b/c that is when I started. 

I also say that people make their own choices about how to proceed with their investment(s) based on a variety of factors, including risk profile and other investments and reasons why they are adding BTC to their mix. 

Anyhow, you could be correct that prices will continue to go down.. but I have already experienced that you tend to be in la la land regarding your willingness to discuss reality rather than some made up sets of circumstances.

Explanation

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 15%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 25%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 55%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 85%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 80%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 60%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 35%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 25%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 15%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

What's the point of making predictions when the main factors involved creating the price can't be currently predicted?
The only thing that you are accomplishing here is establishing on what will most hope that the price will be. Why do you need that?

thats too much options man

("price" = exchange rate in Bitstamp, or a western exch with highest volume iff Bitstamp closes)

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I will add mine shortly in a separate post so you can quote this one if you like to join

I forgot I had 10 BTC on McxNow that I sent there after buying at 360$.

Gone at 460$ 

No offense taken.... and it does sound a little elitist.. but that is your target audience.. no problem with that.

I was using $500 as an example as an easy to round number (I guess that I was being charitable in the service about which I was speculating).

Yes, I started investing in BTC in November 2013, and i have only accumulated 59 so far... It has been a slow grinding process, in part b/c of bad timing concerning when I got in.  Yet some of these tricky and grinding situations are going to continue to exist for us regular folks (or later arrivers) to accumulate BTC... or whatever other investments that we may have.

These faults weren't having an effect at the time when I bought.

They are stupid if they're kicking themselves for it. It's like kicking yourself after seeing the lottery numbers and saying "only if I chose 45, 5, 6, 11, 22 and 37". During this time there was only blind hope that bitcoin will be this big. No experienced, educated and knowledgeable investors got involved, so no skill was involved in seeing potential. Most of the ones who were involved then, were just dumb kids who got lucky at random google searches and got excited because they weren't skilled enough to assess the low probability of success.

Yes, that's what I thought, "who knows". Just some time ago you tried to present yourself as an skillful trader, but when asking some certainty on your predictions then the answer will always be "who knows". Because you really don't have a clue on what will happen. You aren't able enough to make proper analysis to support any of your predictions. You just make blind bets that have a 50/50 winning chance to you.

But I'm telling you with certainty, if there aren't new strong laws made to support the financial use of bitcoin in US or EU (I haven't considered China as an option for potential for a long time already), or if there aren't new markets opened with proper volume in new geographical locations, then this WAS NOT the bottom and it will drop more then 340$.

I didn't claim to predict that either. I just said that it was possible, and I was basing solely on a 2011 chart. However, that's a very crude way to make a prediction. It all depends what events unfold in this time, especially those involving the opening and closing of exchanges.

Pump price, DDOS other exchanges and profit.

China has to keep buying RIGHT NOW otherwise it looks bad for the charts.

So what kind of odds are you giving it? 

I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT.

You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity).  I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction. 

Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy).

In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period.    That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount. 

I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details).

So what price are you buying? Are you in fiat or BTC?

This is going off on abit of a tangent from the first conversation, we we're talking about how to move larger amounts of money from one place to another, courses and expert advice isn't needed for this just either A or B as first said.