Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28217. (Read 26709924 times)

You do just what the other bears do around here. If you see the smallest price bump you shout that you're closing you're short and go long but expect it to be only temporarily while you keep shouting down down down.
You've done it so many times that it's just doesn't count anymore.

I am an amateur at bitcoin but i still typed in my predictions, and it does seem to be a useful mental exercise, even though you are giving a lot of options and I believe you meant to say the remainder of 2014, but you could as well said in the next 365 days.

Have you even been following my trades? I covered my short at $340-$360 and went long at $425.

Tera must feel so bad that he's forced to buy in with a loss. As always.
So what's left for him to do?
"Bitcoin sinking ship blah blah never can sell this high again cry mweeeh we're going down yadiya".

That wasn't where the converstation was going but okay. You were asking how it was possible to move large amounts of money which means that your not a financial expert or even clued up on how that can happen. Hence you need B to manage A better, as do most. Your intepretation of B is someone who is giving out expert advice or is able to move the money themselves etc but I only said know the right people. The person who you know B doesnt have to be the right person he just has to know someone who is.

Anyway pointless conversation at this point.

You haven't been around during the 300k/BTC predictions.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0.1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 2%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 10%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 40%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 95%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =75%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 65%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 30%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.

Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.

I am actually not so bullish about bitcoin that I think it will succeed as a replacement for fiat.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0.1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 1%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 2%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 10%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 98%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 95%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 90%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 85%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 75%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 55%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 45%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 40%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 7%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Haha, calling your post mathematically analyzed, reminds me of this video and how much the "bitcoin trading wizards" remind me of that scene:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygfX3VAF_gg

You're one funny bugger, that's for sure.
4 days ago you were a bagholder with -110$ because you were certain that the price won't fall below 400 at first and 384 after. Now you are +10$ for a couple of hours and you are dead certain about your advanced mathematical! trading abilities again.

I think that someone could write an awesome comedy with getting inspiration from this forum.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 5%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 60%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 97.5%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 92.5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 40%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 30%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 20%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 12.5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I have absolutely no idea of what the price will do.  However the market clearly is not that optimistic, otherwise the price today would be at least 4000 x 50% = 2000$.

The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.

I was NOT the only person that responded to your post, and it seems that some people took offense to it.  I just tried to convert it into more specifics.. through the framing of a bet.  I don't really care about bets very much; however, framing the bet can get us down to specifics to some extent.. especially when it seems that you were getting a little dig in at my comment about the crystal ball...

Well, you know we go based on a lot of things, and you put a lot of weight on TA graphs, at least that is what you say, and in the end each of us our going to buy or sell BTC based on various aspects, including our beliefs about the BTC fundamentals, as well as maybe other matters such as news and TA Graphs. 

In that regard, if you are NOT even willing to take a bet that BTC prices will be below $500 for at least half of the next 365 days, then you would even be less confident that your statement about BTC never being above $460 was even a very probably statement in your own thinking.... probably well less than 1 or 2%, and yet you made it. 

Anyhow, I do NOT want to argue about it, but it just seemed to be a quite outrageous thing to communicate as if it were possible based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin.

Have you, or have you not, considered that crypto is better than fiat, and is therefore replacing fiat like Internet replaced so many things?

All your talk is nullified when you consider this matter for even a short while.

There is a limited number of bitcoins, and if you get them cheaper, it is good for you.

Of course if all your trades that you claim were real, that is good for you too. Sadly I don't believe it, because you only claim them afterwards, and when looking at your actual predictions, they are ambiguous and wrong. See my post a few pages ago.

Yes, thats what I thought, of course these faults didnt matter when you were buying just when your not.

Your laughably wrong again, a lot of the early bitcoiners were far from dumb kids who got lucky from google searching, are you seriously that retarded? The majority of the early bitcoiners were older, well educated, skilled (most in cryptography) and saw and could understand the problems with "digital cash" that Satoshi has solved. An inordinate amount of skill and knowledge was required to see Bitcoins potential early. Your showing how little knowledge you posses of the history of Bitcoin.

Who knows was an ambiguous answer to an ambiguous question. Your basically asking will we see an ATH before a dip below $340 which is a question way too broad to give a definitive answer to. We could go to $1100 I could triple my money and then go down to  below $340 and I would still be wrong if I had said yes to your question.  I know your only trying to trap me in an answer but at this point it doesnt matter.

Comical how you ask me for a definitive answer then tell me your answer but with clauses that are open to interpretation to protect your prediction. Why would I say this is definately the bottom when all the Chinese exchanges could close tommorow? I dont need to make predictions like those when I can react the the market and news accordingly. I made my proper analysis and bought in the mid $350's I sold some of those coins today at +30% in 48 hours. I can now make predicitions on the next move . If we go down again I buy more all the time making money while you sit there making nothing on your very long term ambiguous assertions. Nobody has a crystal ball, nobody knows what will happen for sure but in the short term your loosing and the people your berating are winning. End of.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 1%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 100%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 50%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 20%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 10%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 5%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 2%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 1%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 0%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 0%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 15%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 25%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = >99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 75%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 50%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 35%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 10%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 5%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 3%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 2%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 1%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = <1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I'd be happy with 500s This would prove btc is not going down (like so many people here predict). Don't forget it was below $200 not long ago.

It is starting to look more and more like $500 may become the new base price for Bitcoin, not $1000 as many had hoped. Does anyone have a link to that Meryll Lynch report where they assessed it's value at $1300 a little while ago?