Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):
! Mon ! Tue ! Wed ! Thu ! Fri ! Sat ! Sun ! Mon ! Tue !
EXCHANGE ! 02/17 ! 02/18 ! 02/19 ! 02/20 ! 02/21 ! 02/22 ! 02/23 ! 02/24 ! 02/25 ! Currencies considered
Bitstamp | 19.90 | 14.83 | 20.76 | 34.97 | 29.61 | 18.08 | 20.87 | 51.84 | 115.76 | USD
BitFinEx | 15.69 | 8.47 | 4.71 | 25.27 | 28.46 | 14.73 | 15.80 | 27.16 | 94.55 | USD
BTC-e | 15.07 | 8.08 | 5.84 | 23.37 | 23.64 | 18.68 | 14.24 | 20.78 | 73.86 | USD,EUR,RUR
Kraken | 0.89 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 1.60 | 1.15 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 2.23 | EUR
Bitcoin.DE | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 2.23 | EUR
CaVirtEx | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 2.15 | CAD
CampBX | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.73 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 0.42 | USD
SUBTOTAL | 52.55 | 32.58 | 32.48 | 87.39 | 84.46 | 53.64 | 52.92 | 102.24 | 291.20 |
Huobi | 130.41 | 74.04 | 34.12 | 131.14 | 187.12 | 154.12 | 185.15 | 163.47 | 352.76 | CNY
OKCoin | 63.05 | 51.46 | 26.29 | 53.49 | 140.75 | 87.71 | 141.90 | 84.03 | 275.68 | CNY
BTC-China | 7.86 | 3.86 | 2.04 | 10.97 | 15.23 | 9.29 | 10.42 | 13.12 | 27.72 | CNY
Bter | 0.48 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 0.62 | 0.53 | 1.10 | CNY
SUBTOTAL | 201.80 | 129.71 | 62.82 | 196.37 | 343.73 | 251.60 | 338.09 | 261.15 | 657.26 |
TOTAL | 254.35 | 162.29 | 95.30 | 283.76 | 428.19 | 305.24 | 391.01 | 363.39 | 948.46 |
All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.
For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.
Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day. For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)
NOTE: MtGOX is now closed.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29214. (Read 26608922 times)
February 25, 2014, 11:21:34 PM
February 25, 2014, 11:20:40 PM
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
Lol, I've always wondered that too. I just crunched the product in Mathematica and it converged to an equation involving Gamma functions. Perhaps Marcus can share its significance.
Really? That's cool. Mind if I see the Mathematica output?
f(x) = Sqrt[Pi]/(Gamma[(Pi + x)/(2Pi)] Gamma[1 - x/(2Pi)])
wow ... you might have just solved a long standing problem ... I'll let you know.
February 25, 2014, 11:20:16 PM
Feels good to be only 100% BTC again. Being levered long was a little stressful.
I was feeling the same way.. most of my bids got filled, was going to just withdraw the coins to allocate to cold storage... and then this from virtex:
Quote
Withdraw Bitcoins
<< Back
Bitcoin Withdrawals are Temporarily Disabled
Please see our twitter feed for updates
<< Back
Bitcoin Withdrawals are Temporarily Disabled
Please see our twitter feed for updates
Really Virtex? not you too?
Are fiat withdrawals still functioning?
Fiat withdrawls appear to be fine, I haven't tested but I have little fiat remaining, so I haven't tested.
LTC withdrawls are tested and confirmed working just fine (very fast too, gotta give it to litecoin for that)
Was considering dumping it all into litecoin just to withdraw, ltc<->btc ratio seems pretty stable...
February 25, 2014, 11:17:47 PM
hmm is there any posts from virtex saying why?
The BTC withdrawals on virtex are disabled. Just checked.
February 25, 2014, 11:14:35 PM
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
Lol, I've always wondered that too. I just crunched the product in Mathematica and it converged to an equation involving Gamma functions. Perhaps Marcus can share its significance.
Really? That's cool. Mind if I see the Mathematica output?
f(x) = Sqrt[Pi]/(Gamma[(Pi + x)/(2Pi)] Gamma[1 - x/(2Pi)])
February 25, 2014, 11:13:08 PM
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
Lol, I've always wondered that too. I just crunched the product in Mathematica and it converged to an equation involving Gamma functions. Perhaps Marcus can share its significance.
Really? That's cool. Mind if I see the Mathematica output?
February 25, 2014, 11:12:24 PM
hmm is there any posts from virtex saying why?
February 25, 2014, 11:11:40 PM
I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.
The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.
so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?
The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.
so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?
Yes. The Prof is right. There is a possibility that 744k bitcoins have been destroyed by MtGox if the private keys have been overwritten in its database. Does anyone know whether gox ever implemented HD wallets internally?
This would be *insane*,the blunder of blunders.
February 25, 2014, 11:09:50 PM
Feels good to be only 100% BTC again. Being levered long was a little stressful.
I was feeling the same way.. most of my bids got filled, was going to just withdraw the coins to allocate to cold storage... and then this from virtex:
Quote
Withdraw Bitcoins
<< Back
Bitcoin Withdrawals are Temporarily Disabled
Please see our twitter feed for updates
<< Back
Bitcoin Withdrawals are Temporarily Disabled
Please see our twitter feed for updates
Really Virtex? not you too?
Are fiat withdrawals still functioning?
February 25, 2014, 11:06:19 PM
Feels good to be only 100% BTC again. Being levered long was a little stressful.
I was feeling the same way.. most of my bids got filled, was going to just withdraw the coins to allocate to cold storage... and then this from virtex:
Quote
Withdraw Bitcoins
<< Back
Bitcoin Withdrawals are Temporarily Disabled
Please see our twitter feed for updates
<< Back
Bitcoin Withdrawals are Temporarily Disabled
Please see our twitter feed for updates
Really Virtex? not you too?
February 25, 2014, 11:03:58 PM
Satoshi could bail out Gox.
no he couldn't ... not after putting an anti-bailout message in the genesis block, that would ruin bitcoin to its core.
I have to agree. There's moral hazard in a bail-out. We wanted money without central banking and we have it. Time to grow up.
February 25, 2014, 11:02:50 PM
February 25, 2014, 11:02:11 PM
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
Lol, I've always wondered that too. I just crunched the product in Mathematica and it converged to an equation involving Gamma functions. Perhaps Marcus can share its significance.
February 25, 2014, 10:56:11 PM
http://unsubject.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/jokerburnsmoney.jpg
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
Karpeles isn't the Joker. He's a kid we left tending the garden when all the flowers died.
February 25, 2014, 10:55:33 PM
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
February 25, 2014, 10:48:37 PM
Karpeles' master plan ... burn all the coinz!?
February 25, 2014, 10:47:17 PM
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday Feb/26
Today Feb/25, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was 853 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a False Slumber Point.
This was the sixth consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the six days Feb/20--25 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.
There is no clear trend yet, so for the next prediction I will stick to the "bullish" trendline defined by the True Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23, ignoring Feb/21. That trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February. For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.
Therefore:
Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3804 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD.
NOTE: If you find these Chinese Slumber Method posts boring, I could change the name to Chinese Choo Choo Train to the Moon Slumber Method.
Today Feb/25, Huobi's volume for 19:00 -- 19:59 UTC was 853 BTC, which, by the criteria I have been using, makes it a False Slumber Point.
This was the sixth consecutive day in a period of hectic trading at Huobi, that started on Feb/20. It is as if the six days Feb/20--25 had been one single "trading session" during which the price veered off the trend line, like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.
There is no clear trend yet, so for the next prediction I will stick to the "bullish" trendline defined by the True Slumber Points of Feb/18, Feb/19 and Feb/23, ignoring Feb/21. That trend line has the equation p = 3871.10 - 2.57*d, where p is the price and d is the day number in February. For Bitstamp, as usual, I will use Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.
Therefore:
Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-02-26, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3804 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD.
NOTE: If you find these Chinese Slumber Method posts boring, I could change the name to Chinese Choo Choo Train to the Moon Slumber Method.
February 25, 2014, 10:46:31 PM
Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/25
Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-02-24, 21:36 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC
Well, again, I was obviously way more optimistic than the market
Huobi's predicted price: 3807 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3284 CNY
Error: 523 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 515 USD
Error: 107 USD
One interesting observation is that, like yesterday, Huobi's price followed Bitstamp only partially, refusing to go all the way down. The price ratio deviated from the usual 6.12 CNY/USD, although not as much as yesterday. It seems that arbitrage trading was not totally effective at those times.
The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-02-24, 21:36 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC
Well, again, I was obviously way more optimistic than the market
Huobi's predicted price: 3807 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3284 CNY
Error: 523 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 515 USD
Error: 107 USD
One interesting observation is that, like yesterday, Huobi's price followed Bitstamp only partially, refusing to go all the way down. The price ratio deviated from the usual 6.12 CNY/USD, although not as much as yesterday. It seems that arbitrage trading was not totally effective at those times.
The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.
February 25, 2014, 10:44:07 PM
I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.
The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.
so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?
The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.
so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?
Yes. The Prof is right. There is a possibility that 744k bitcoins have been destroyed by MtGox if the private keys have been overwritten in its database. Does anyone know whether gox ever implemented HD wallets internally?
No, we don't know yet, but the two most likely scenarios are that they were destroyed or that Gox was being hollowed out for months if not years. When I think that the coins I pulled out at a mere 15% premium were possibly among the last ones there, I shudder. If Gox was hollowed out, that hack is now the biggest cyber-heist in history. If the coins were destroyed, it's a Goldfinger crime-destroying a large deposit to make the destroyer's holdings more valuable.
February 25, 2014, 10:43:51 PM
Lol, imagine what a shit it is to destroy hundreds of thousands of bitcoins 
They probably make a cartoonish popping noise when they disappear. Jump to: