Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29215.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/25

Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-02-24, 21:36 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-25, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Well, again, I was obviously way more optimistic than the market Wink

Huobi's predicted price: 3807 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3284 CNY
Error: 523 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 622 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 515 USD
Error: 107 USD

One interesting observation is that, like yesterday, Huobi's price followed Bitstamp only partially, refusing to go all the way down. The price ratio deviated from the usual 6.12 CNY/USD, although not as much as yesterday. It seems that arbitrage trading was not totally effective at those times.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.

The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: solex on February 25, 2014, 10:35:57 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 25, 2014, 10:26:14 PM

I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.

The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.

so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?

Yes. The Prof is right. There is a possibility that 744k bitcoins have been destroyed by MtGox if the private keys have been overwritten in its database. Does anyone know whether gox ever implemented HD wallets internally?

No, we don't know yet, but the two most likely scenarios are that they were destroyed or that Gox was being hollowed out for months if not years. When I think that the coins I pulled out at a mere 15% premium were possibly among the last ones there, I shudder. If Gox was hollowed out, that hack is now the biggest cyber-heist in history. If the coins were destroyed, it's a Goldfinger crime-destroying a large deposit to make the destroyer's holdings more valuable.

Arcas

hero member

Activity: 1036

Merit: 524

Quote from: seleme on February 25, 2014, 10:41:55 PM

Lol, imagine what a shit it is to destroy hundreds of thousands of bitcoins Grin

They probably make a cartoonish popping noise when they disappear.

seleme

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1028

Duelbits.com

Lol, imagine what a shit it is to destroy hundreds of thousands of bitcoins Grin

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 2349

Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 25, 2014, 10:34:43 PM

Quote from: prof7bit on February 25, 2014, 08:48:14 PM

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

Sounds like the sort of thing that should not happen but often does...

But what about those clients who complained publicly that they did NOT receive the withdrawals? The hackers only "un-malleated" the transfer requests of their own withdrawals, leaving those alone?

... don't attribute to malice that which can be easily explained by incompetence.

I'm getting a sense now the way people are dancing around the issue is that Gox has sent a huge number of coins (600k plus) into never never land.

No one said safe, convenient crypto transfers would be easy.

He's probably been simply ignoring all those valid complaints of "I didn't get my coins ..." when they got sent to a black-hole address by his bad software.

jojo69

legendary

Activity: 3374

Merit: 4738

diamond-handed zealot

Quote from: creekbore on February 25, 2014, 10:35:47 PM

Hey, was all OK after that issue earlier?

Absolutely, damn civilized of both of you!

My thanks, sir.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: cbutters on February 25, 2014, 09:11:49 PM

I hate to bring this up with the stigma... but is it just me or is the volume on btcchina creeping up?

It is the normal daily pattern. It is 11:00 am there.

HairyMaclairy

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 2282

Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist

Quote from: jojo69 on February 25, 2014, 10:32:37 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 25, 2014, 10:27:22 PM

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

word

*but he could only do it once.

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 25, 2014, 10:26:14 PM

I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.

The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.

so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?

Yes. The Prof is right. There is a possibility that 744k bitcoins have been destroyed by MtGox if the private keys have been overwritten in its database. Does anyone know whether gox ever implemented HD wallets internally?

creekbore

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Quote from: jojo69 on February 25, 2014, 10:32:37 PM

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 25, 2014, 10:27:22 PM

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

word

Hey, was all OK after that issue earlier?

MikeH

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

FBI will bail out mtgox customers with SR confiscated btc's/

more like they'll seize the database of users and put them on the terrorist list.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: prof7bit on February 25, 2014, 08:48:14 PM

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

Sounds like the sort of thing that should not happen but often does...

But what about those clients who complained publicly that they did NOT receive the withdrawals? The hackers only "un-malleated" the transfer requests of their own withdrawals, leaving those alone?

creekbore

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 25, 2014, 10:19:50 PM

http://www.businessinsider.com/report-mtgox-subpoenaed-by-us-prosecutor-2014-2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101446338

Keeps getting better. Japanese authorities also looking into Gox.

It looks like this is what [can't remember name of BF member] said yesterday about the "bad news this week"...assume this may get worse before better

jojo69

legendary

Activity: 3374

Merit: 4738

diamond-handed zealot

Quote from: Walsoraj on February 25, 2014, 10:27:22 PM

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

word

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

Satoshi could bail out Gox.

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

I guess I'm a little slow letting the news sink in. If 744K coins are really missing, nobody is going to bail out Gox. it's just too much money and the coins would have to be purchased elsewhere, driving up the price further. MK is delusional in thinking he can fix this. Nobody will make his victims whole. The coins are likely unrecoverable and the reason he has been so obtuse is because the magnitude of his failure is overwhelming. I feel sorry for him now. There is no possible redemption. No apology will suffice, and the cops are coming. The statement of remorse I was looking for will come at the sentencing hearing.

The missing coins have likely already been spent into circulation or have disappeared forever along with their private keys. Wow.

so why is bitcoinwisdom showing price movement on Gox?

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

http://www.businessinsider.com/report-mtgox-subpoenaed-by-us-prosecutor-2014-2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101446338

Keeps getting better. Japanese authorities also looking into Gox.

creekbore

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

This from rotters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/mtgox-subpoena-idUSL3N0LV0UZ20140226

Quote

Feb 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox has received a subpoena from federal prosecutors in New York, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Mt. Gox, once the world's biggest bitcoin exchange, abruptly stopped trading on Tuesday and its chief executive said the business was at "a turning point," sparking concerns about the future of the unregulated virtual currency.

The subpoena was sent this month and asked Mt. Gox to preserve certain documents among other things, the Journal said.

Franktank

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

Mt. Gox receives subpoena from federal prosecutor

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/mtgox-subpoena-idUSL3N0LV0UZ20140226

Feds getting involved, times are changing...

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: cbutters on February 25, 2014, 09:16:30 PM

Quote from: derpinheimer on February 25, 2014, 09:14:42 PM

Quote from: cbutters on February 25, 2014, 09:11:49 PM

I hate to bring this up with the stigma... but is it just me or is the volume on btcchina creeping up?

You mean Huobi? BTCChina barely has any volume..

No I mean BTCChina... look at the 12H chart... volume was basically silent for all of january... been creeping up over the last week or so.

They reduced the fee from 0.3% to 0.1%

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