Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 29723. (Read 26720873 times)

You are quite right, larger markets and a fixed supply increases the price. But how many people do you think use Bitcoin Worldwide? I would hazard a guess and say a little over a million. Now say bitcoin really becomes (a little) mainstream and 5 million people use it. Say those 4 million new bitcoiners start to use it now with the recent drop. You don't think that will propel the price higher? With all the recent media coverage, let's assume that everyday 3600 new people start using bitcoin and everyone of those wants only 1 bitcoin. Now you have an increased demand of 350 (3600-newly mined bitcoins per day ~3251) bitcoin per day. Now, the average bitcoiner hodls to a certain degree, let's say 50% increase in value before selling (I know it's way higher than that, but hey...). Let's also assume that all exchanges run at the same optimal price (again, I know...) and that there are no bad news that rally a dump (...) .

Then you have a demand of 350 per day or 127750 bitcoin per year left to satisfy, and that is with every miner out there selling his bitcoins instantly.  Can you guess now why everyone says that the former logarithmic trendline will continue? I just thought you could use a little supply and demand mathematics.

So the answer to your question of what event is needed to propel the price upwards is easy: time. and not even that much of it.

Get ready for another round of sub 600$ in the next 10.1/3 hours.
My first target is 555$, i´m not sure if we will have another bull trap at this point. We´ll see.

Feel free to ignore me. I am a Teacher, I have 40 years of experience at being ignored while I speak. 

I told everyone I knew about bitcoin during the summer of 2013, and made sure they at least "sort of" understood it.  Nearly half thought it was a Ponzi-scheme / scam, the other half thought they were too late [But it just rose 1000%!  How could it go up more!?].  Only 3 people went ahead and bought.  

The upside to bitcoin is huge--it's still a positive EV investment.  Put in only $1000 bucks.  You'll either lose most of it, or 10X, 100X, or more your investment.  

I understand people not wanting to risk large amounts of their net worth on bitcoin--it's a new idea and there is risk of failure.  But I think it is actually more risky *not to* invest at least a small amount.  

If bitcoin succeeds, you'll be quite happy even if you only set aside 1 BTC.  

It was inspired by exchanges going like "holy fuck...you mean being a bitcoin exchange is different than being a fiat exchange?"

They obviously and naturally do not want to be prosecuted for fraud. 

Other exchanges will probably follow with similar warnings.

I wonder if this move was inspired by explicit legal threats, against Bitstamp or elesewhere.

Hehe, I thought it looked to cool not to share it

The plane flying into a bridge and that you have never heard of it should give you the answer...

Sorry  cough ... I mean yes this happened... do you want to buy some really rare coins?? PM me  

fake
http://stevemcghee.com/?page_id=1491

The license plates should give you the answer

Sigh.  For some people it was foresight though not hindsight.

Also you cannot say yet Bitcoin is a terrible investment at this point... time will tell, as in my opinion there are plenty of reasons to believe the price will rise, as in all of the fundamental reasons that have always been there to invest in Bitcoin. Yes there is an element of risk, as there is in any investment.

Sorry but comparing lottery tickets and Bitcoin is totally daft- I cannot take you seriously when you post things like that to be honest.

Is this real? What is this??

huh? you're messing with the numbers

It's cool that you are wasting your time writing a long post

Unfortunately your quote; "Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, rather skeptical of its longterm success." makes your post completely invalid  

Sigh. Bitcoin was an excellent investment, in hindsight - for those who bought before nov/2013 and will be smart enough to sell before it collapses.

But, in hindsight, buying lottery tickets was much better investment - for those who bought the winning tickets.

Bitcoin has been a terrible investment for those who bought in late november, or since january.

Bitcoin is still a terrible investment, because there is no reason to believe that the price will increase, and several reasons for which it may decrease.

No stock trader cares for, or even cares to know, the past history of the price of a stock. One cannot use ancient price history to justify a claim of future price increase.  Indeed, resorting to that argument only highlights the lack of any real justification for that claim.

The cause for the increase from 17$ to 1200$ is obvious: the opening of the Chinese market by BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi.  That was basic economics: larger market, fixed supply = higher price.  What event is expected to happen that could propel the price much higher than 700$?

I do not want to change anyone's mind here.  Adults have the right to spend their money anyway they like -- investing in risky ventures like bitcoin, poker, or lottery tickets, or even throwing it away.  And they have the right to try to convince anyone to do the same -- as long as they honestly warn him of all the risks and unknowns, without fallacious arguments or unfounded promises.  Gambling with your money is OK, scamming other people is not.

I was on the red, Rijoa lovely stuff .....  and then shots got suggested....did not take much convincing but not such lovely stuff.

Had the same thought and hair of the dog is in process as we speak : )  and it is mellowing the edges a little..

that and all of the food I can eat..

Thanks for the update.

Explanation

 

This pic is impressive!

Valentine's brought too much liquor to your gut? I found a nice white wine (as in, tasteful enough, but gives me no hangover), drank the bottle.

Only news is: minor maintenance notice at gox (https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140215-BTC-transfers.pdf), someone copied a nebulous pastebin chat about transactions somewhere due by 3:15 (no one knows when, where), a 'double bottom' was 'confirmed', and stoopid folks quoted trolls.

Hair of the dog? :-)