Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30659. (Read 26713617 times)

Of course, but then I have a handful of cash though which is also nice thing to have these days. 

So if people don't panic sell their coins into your lap you'll be pissed off, right?

It doesn't seem like you've factored in the kinds of changes - "mass-adoption" (or at least evolving mass-awareness thanks to increased media coverage), developing services, etc. - that have led to some calling this the "tipping point" for Bitcoin. Of course it is impossible to give precise mathematical indicators in this respect but qualitatively speaking things are not the same now as they were historically. That said, the December 18 low of $450 fits well in comparison with history.

Well I've sold, then bought, and then sold (just my trading coins).  

I'm hoping to calmly buy in the $500s but I'll probably panic buy in the $900s.  

Well some of them might have been sold a bit already but for those of them who haven't sold, I am encouraging them to sell in case of price drop like Reptila is declaring here. He has done good job in analyzing and I cannot simply ignore his research as unvalid, of course there is a probability he is wrong but based on his track record and stash of money, he must have been more often right than wrong.
You judge yourself.
As I told, I made my decision and sold 90 % of my BTC holdings and planning rebuy only if the price drops significiantly from this point - if not I do not have stop-loss set and I will cry the opportunity cost of betting agains BitCoin for short/midlong term.

Don't you think they sold already ?

Don't you think they have bought already?

Seems you forgot we had double top at $1240 ... this sellers want rebuy too.

Well, you know the feeling when you have been buying coins instead of selling at 500-700 dollars and then the price starts dropping to 450, then quickly to 400, then 350 and then 320 quickly. You know, in this position the coin holders feel like there is a bottomless pit the coin will be sinking and it is better of selling them now for 320 while someone is still willing to pay this amount from my coinz.

Let's go through a number of points how this is going to resolve. First, if you don't mention time frames, your analysis fails already, so I'll crudely break this down into short and long term.

Short term (say, this weekend, plus next week) I see:
a) several relevant short-to-medium term trends are active, among them 6h EMA30 (that performs extremely well in my backtests on recent data). Price remains above that one, as well as the quicker hourly EMA150. For a slightly slower perspective, 1d EMA30, i.e. the 1 month trend line is a focal point: price hovers just above it. I don't want to claim it provides support, not enough volume for that, but we should see if it holds in the next days.
b) bid/ask ratio is going down right now across all exchanges. That's usually a bearish sign, but in combination with a stagnating price, it's less drastic in my experience.
c) by a (relatively) crude method I use, based on a mean of the volume-weighted price of the peak and low of the most recent price swing, we're *right* on top of that mean. Similarly to my point about 1d EMA30, that's leads to a rather unsatisfactory "it could swing either way, but the next days should resolve it one way or the other".

Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict. Based on how peak/correction cycles played out historically, I would be extremely surprised if we've already seen the end of the correction. Late January/Early February is more likely based on how previous corrections played out wrt time. Price targets are difficult because it all depends on whether the December 18 low was really the bottom, or just an intermediate step in a larger more forceful downtrend, or alternatively, a long drawn out decline. I still see the possibility that daily SMA100 was active as support on that crash, and the final capitulation will be higher than the low of December 18, but that's not a strong conviction I hold, at best an informed guess.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

I understand any gain on a trade in US tax law under $200 does not need to be reported. Is this why trading under 10k is a way to keep below that $200 limit. Or am I way off on this?

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

well I will threw my thoughts here.

someone pulling data from the 2011 crash and April 2013 crash and the price movements in between and trying to compare that data to today's market is just insane, the situation is all different, and for the sake of the argument just look at the time it took for a recover in 2011 and the time to recover from April 2013. one conclusion : people got educated about these crashes, so many people waiting for the same thing.... unless there will so bad news or some big fish decide to cash out we are watching a slow growth with some corrections in between ...  (not you rpietila, you are still a tiny fish for me a sardine as a single sardina in other word )


BTW a big fish will sell that amount of Bitcoin off the books  

Not sure about ATH yet but an uptrend is right

New ATH soon?

That's right... It's going to go up.

Unfortunately you are wrong (with relatively high probability). The price won't be stable at current levels.

So how will the price move between now and january 1.?

I think pretty stable at current price.