Yeah, I want some of the 400-500$ coins, I'm thinking back to 900-1000 by new years, or just after
Som ting Wong!!!! You no read 1W chart?
You no read adoption curve??? You no understand what we saying???
Well, to be fair, the adoption curve does not move in a straight line on the exponential scale. Adoption comes in spurts, so we may lag behind the curve for a while then shoot over it for a while. Look at early this year, after spending a long time in the $10 range, we shot up to a "stable" $100ish, with a few (not so)minor bumps along the way.
I don't expect that our growth will always be along the line, and to be sure, at some point we will fall way below the predicted trend and stay there. People don't find out about and enter bitcoin at a set rate. Events, etc. accelerate or stagnate the adoption.
Quick piece of math for you to do, Gox just announced they crossed 1 million customers. I am sure the other exchanges have at least some customers that never signed up on Gox, so that is a lot of people. How many coins are out there to go around? We know how many have been mined, but there are a LOT in cold wallets, lost, etc. There are not enough coins for those people to have even 4 each probably, and the price would be astronomical once they did.
Short term may still have some bear left in it, but I think the manipulators/accumulators are doing a pretty good job of keeping even reasonable people bearish. As long as they are successful, it is a bear market. Take advantage of it, but there is a great risk of getting burned at some point.
Try not to make it look like you are telling someone they are stupid because they have different opinions than you do . . .
Ha, tHash, thanks. I have a fever, and I'm just acting stupid. You're right, of course, in that I don't mean to sound like an a$$hat, and, the older I get, the more I believe in the maxim 'speak no ill of any man', if I were only that capable to accomplish it. Apologies, for any condescension, and thanks for the reminder.
However, I think your point about spurts on the adoption curve is precisely correct, on its face, but I'd encourage you to grok it deeper-- perhaps, I have become blinded or am mistaken in my analysis, or that there are other alternative viewpoints that we might derive, as well. Point being, this 'spurt', in the broader sense, includes the run-up from 266, in October. It's pressure drove us up to the high, and now we are witnessing depressurization, or return to our norm (log increase). There will be other spurts, and, naturally, they will not be scheduled. And, mostly, as we move up the S-curve, they will drift away from logarithmic gains, towards linear (vertical, in terms of the S-curve).
In terms of very short term moves, today or next week, it's really hard to say. But, that we return to a low in the mid term (before winter is through), seems a wise acknowledgement. Also, that due to the nature of the spurts, we will not retest the ATH's this round-- as I've suggested on other posts (that are much less fun that this thread), those who can/will do something about BTC in this spurt have already acted, the adoption spurt has 'worked'.
