Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 30811. (Read 26713425 times)

legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
The real take away for me was that entry point is wildly over-valued component (a coin flip might even return better odds), while the added components of setup, position sizing, risk management, expectancy, and exit are *all* required to actually avoid gambling and manage funds properly. We have a long way to go to have those tools available to us, laymen (albeit relatively smart ones), and I'm looking forward to that evolution.
If Bitcoin is successful then the only relevant factors is how many you manage to grab before it happens.

In that outcome currency exchanges are a transitional technology because in the end there won't be other currencies to exchange with.

If Bitcoin fails, then this this is all a bunch of meaningless gambling.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.

Save yourself much grief, buy low, wow profit, not so doge.

Yeah, I want some of the 400-500$ coins, I'm thinking back to  900-1000 by new years, or just after

Som ting Wong!!!! You no read 1W chart?Huh You no read adoption curve??? You no understand what we saying???
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
if it goes up for 20 minutes buy, down for 20 minutes sell?

It could work. Especially with 0% fees.


The real take away for me was that entry point is wildly over-valued component (a coin flip might even return better odds), while the added components of setup, position sizing, risk management, expectancy, and exit are *all* required to actually avoid gambling and manage funds properly. We have a long way to go to have those tools available to us, laymen (albeit relatively smart ones), and I'm looking forward to that evolution.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1045
Gox decided its time to buy

and stamp

High 500s (gox) and mid 500s stamp is lowest this weekend gonna go I think Sad no chip coins Sad

edit: waaay too much buying pressure! Everyone wants btc!
full member
Activity: 280
Merit: 100
It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.



"small bull case scenario for Bitcoin is a 400 billion USD dollar market cap, so 40,000 USD a coin, but I believe it could be much larger. When this will happen, if it happens, I don't know, but if it happens, it will probably happen much faster than anyone imagines."

(http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1swnnl/i_am_cameron_winklevoss_and_i_love_me_some/)

Now who/what determines market cap, and when?
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

Listen, I read loaded's posts. You guys have to understand that if he really was carrying bags of cash, he would not have been able to set foot on Chinese soil... Do any of you live in the real world? If he has off-shore entities and his cash that is a wire away, that is slightly different. Still though, there is no reason for him to go there to put money back into the Chinese exchange. Government trumps Bobby ability to find a willing third party payment system.

He went there to talk about what is next, and how can he move his wealth accordingly. Buying back in on a exchange chocked by government, I don't think so.

Looks like you haven't actually read the posts, you weren't paying attention or you lack reading comprehension skills.

He specifically said he bought from a single seller, so that the coins did not hit the market (aka BTCChina).

Also, smuggling fiat in planes is common practice all around the world. All you need is a friendly crew, and a diplomat in your party. That's the real world.
newbie
Activity: 48
Merit: 0
OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.

Save yourself much grief, buy low, wow profit, not so doge.

Yeah, I want some of the 400-500$ coins, I'm thinking back to  900-1000 by new years, or just after
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Viretx isn't moving
so i'm like ok ill place a wall infront of everyone else and hope they start placing walls lower and get this party started
the second my wall pops up someone takes a bite, i panic remove my wall, and a 10BTC bid appears at the very top.
lol
wtf!
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

It's an interesting point of view; but it works also vice versa. Meaning that IF somebody has so many BTC handy and in cold storage, he's gonna be more concerned on stabilization of the currency than it's destabilization and accumulation of more. Being in such a position is not always "problems free" you know. When a major exchange is practically sets itself out of business, we all should be heading for MONTHS of time into recovering with strong possibilities the reverse (and most wanted by them) media attention than what it came with the $1240 ATH.

So; my guess is that it's not like that... but of course my chances of being wrong is the same with yours being right... about 50% Wink
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
if it goes up for 20 minutes buy, down for 20 minutes sell?

It could work. Especially with 0% fees.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Wow, BTCChina is completely dead atm. No money left there?

Middle of the night. Most traders are sleeping - and maybe they have lost interest for now. Bots are mostly off because trading fees.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

Nailed it...   Not sure about going below 500 but if it does I have prepared my contingencies :-)

Check out the 1W, how can it *not* return to a lower stance? You know you want those cheepz coinz. NOM NOM
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Wow, BTCChina is completely dead atm. No money left there?
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

Nailed it...   Not sure about going below 500 but if it does I have prepared my contingencies :-)
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.

Save yourself much grief, buy low, wow profit, not so doge.
newbie
Activity: 48
Merit: 0
OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

Listen, I read loaded's posts. You guys have to understand that if he really was carrying bags of cash, he would not have been able to set foot on Chinese soil... Do any of you live in the real world? If he has off-shore entities and his cash that is a wire away, that is slightly different. Still though, there is no reason for him to go there to put money back into the Chinese exchange. Government trumps Bobby ability to find a willing third party payment system.

He went there to talk about what is next, and how can he move his wealth accordingly. Buying back in on a exchange chocked by government, I don't think so.

I don't doubt he could bring assets into the country on a private plane, with the right connections; further, he mentioned brokering private deals, as I understood.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

Listen, I read loaded's posts. You guys have to understand that if he really was carrying bags of cash, he would not have been able to set foot on Chinese soil... Do any of you live in the real world? If he has off-shore entities and his cash that is a wire away, that is slightly different. Still though, there is no reason for him to go there to put money back into the Chinese exchange. Government trumps Bobby ability to find a willing third party payment system.

He went there to talk about what is next, and how can he move his wealth accordingly. Buying back in on a exchange chocked by government, I don't think so.

Why can't people on here read?

Loaded said he bought coins that would have landed on the other exchanges. That means he bought OFF EXCHANGE. He didn't go hand Bobby Lee a briefcase of cash. And, yes, if he was on a private plane he could have got money into China and exchanged the deal before even going through customs.

He bought the coins from someone who took them off the exchange and sold it to them at a set price. Pretty obvious.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

+1 This, plus basic comprehension of the S-Curve (it's adoption, yo) is making me money. Cheers Risto
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 4775
diamond-handed zealot
The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

I would agree with this, and welcome back R
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