Hi all,
Big noob here...
I feel a bit of background might be necessary, but feel free to skip over this if you like...
How I came around to Bitcoin:I regularly meet for morning coffees with my Dad (who is an ardent Bitcoin advocate and owns upwards of 3000 BTC which he purchased back when 1 BTC was less than $3 if I am not mistaken), and in the last year, I have not had a single conversation with him where he has not mentioned the word 'Bitcoin' at least once (he would find any way to slip it in). He is an electrical engineer and software developer and is prone to technical ramblings, most of which are over my head. This is the man who also predicted that the GFC would cripple the US (and Australia) in 2013. He said that we would be reduced to living in a land where guns and fuel were the most sought-after commodities, and people would be using fiat as toilet paper. Being currently in 2013 where I have yet to see a gun, and fuel is still bought at the local petrol station, I hope I am forgiven for not quite 'buying into' (no pun intended) his passionate promotions of Bitcoin.
Then, one day in October, he pulled out his phone and showed me the current value of 1 BTC - $150. I didn't take any notice.
We met a few days later, and again he pulled out his phone and showed me the current value of 1 BTC - $230.
From then on, his new way of greeting became him simply holding up his phone and flashing the now current value.
Still, I didn't take too much notice of it, but I think you guys can see what is coming....
I remember him showing me the price and it was at around $400 and I asked him if I should purchase some coins myself with some of my meager savings.
He said "I'll answer your question with another question - What is Bitcoin?".
The best I could do was "Ummmm, imaginary money" (please forgive me!).
His response was "Don't invest in something you don't know anything about!"
This was his way of urging me to learn about it... after all, researching is one thing I should technically be good at (I am a university lecturer). So I went away and did a bit of reading... and a bit more reading... and the rest is history, as they say. I was completely blown away by the entire concept, its mysterious origin, the transparent anonymity of transactions, the power of an omnipotent ledger... etc etc.
But, being aware of Bitcoin's volatility and having lived most of my adult life very frugally, $400 per BTC seemed so much to me (and I greedily wanted at least one whole coin, and not some mBTC fraction). Plus, at this point, 1 BTC had already risen in value to over $500! So I waited... and the phone flashing continued... $530.... $697... $800... At one point, I remember lamenting to Dad "$400 was a bloody bargain!". And it just kept going up! My father was now a millionaire!! And there seemed to be no end in sight. Bitcoin could do no wrong. Ahhhh... as they say "Hindsight is 20/20."
Not having a crystal ball, I asked myself "Do you truly believe in the fundamentals behind Bitcoin?" and I could honestly answer "yes".
So I went back and collected all my Bitcoin research and pitched it to my husband. I think it was my enthusiasm (which was probably bordering on reverence by this point) that did it - he agreed to redraw on our home loan. I told him that time was of the essence and if we didn't buy now, it would be too late. This was the night of Wednesday 4th December. The very next day I went and bought 7.7 BTC for $9000. The very NEXT day.... well you all know what happened. I won't deny, the next few days have definitely tested my belief in Bitcoin. But I stuck to my guns and held. I still maintain that one day in the near-ish future, I will tell my sister's grandkids that I once owned 7.7 BTC, and that they be all wide-eyed and gob-smacked "No freakin way!!!!".
Anyway, over the past few weeks, I have become a little obsessed with tracking Bitcoin (my husband yesterday made me delete all Bitcoin apps (bar the wallet) from my phone because he was so fed up with the constant updates and my constant chart-checking). These forums have been a godsend, and have basically fueled this little addiction. You are all certainly right - it is one hell of a ride.
Now, just yesterday one of my Dad's colleagues wanted to sell 1BTC (for $1000 cash) and asked if I was interested. I said "Hell yeah!"... As soon as I committed myself, a second later the price started plummeting. So FYI, if anyone is interested when the next mini 'crash' will be, just ask me to shout out when I'm next going to buy some BTC
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My question:Aaaaaaaaaaaanyway, I had a simple question for the experts here, and I apologise in advance if this is already covered in another thread... When you all mention 'whales dumping', is this essentially the scenario you are talking about?
-- Say a whale has 20,000 BTC and decides to sell at a high of $1000 (in a few smaller dumps, but still within a concentrated period of time)... Since that would account for approximately 0.2% of the total coins currently in circulation, I would imagine that his dump could make a big enough dent in the current price. This dent can then be misconstrued as a crash and a bunch of 'noobs' panic sell, causing the price to plummet further (to say $880 like last night). Then the big whale comes along and buys back his 20,000 BTC for a now discounted price, pocketing $2.4 mil in fiat in the process. --
Is this what is happening? How long can this cycle continue?
(Note: I know that this is essentially what many of you are doing with regards to day trading bitcoin (i.e. buy low, sell high, rinse, repeat), but the key difference here is that these whales seem to be able to manipulate the price to their will (i.e. essentially have a crystal ball), in comparison to the 'average' day-trader who has to make strategic guesses as to what are highs and lows.)
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