Another Snowden leak today. This one regards NSA's ability to hack into almost all, if not all, smartphones. Like the last leak, this one suggests the NSA's decryption power is much greater than we realize.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/privacy-scandal-nsa-can-spy-on-smart-phone-data-a-920971.html
http://www.theverge.com/2013/9/7/4706018/nsa-reportedly-can-access-secure-blackberry-email-tap-other
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/09/08/links-08-sept-the-weekends-nsa-revelations/
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 31845. (Read 26381203 times)
September 08, 2013, 12:34:33 PM
September 08, 2013, 12:02:20 PM
September 08, 2013, 11:44:33 AM
The coalition of the willing will strike Syria causing the prices of commodities to rise. This in turn will affect energy prices which will lead to an increase in BTC prices.
Keep dreaming. Cyprus, Syria, Poland. No increase for bitcoin. September 08, 2013, 11:23:59 AM
The coalition of the willing will strike Syria causing the prices of commodities to rise. This in turn will affect energy prices which will lead to an increase in BTC prices.
Bitcoin goes up when new fiat enters the system. This includes when stupid Americans pour money into Gox, erroneously believing that Cyprians will do the same. Bitcoin also goes up when Americans are terrified of Gox's possible insolvency and buy coin to exit.
Americans will not pour money into gox as a result of the Syrian situation because (1) Gox withdrawal issues and (2) too close in time to the previous bubble. The other exchanges are irrelevant. Money doesn't "pour" in like it does to Gox. Bitstamp, etc are used primarily to cash out.
September 08, 2013, 11:18:01 AM
The coalition of the willing will strike Syria causing the prices of commodities to rise. This in turn will affect energy prices which will lead to an increase in BTC prices.
Keep dreaming. Cyprus, Syria, Poland. No increase for bitcoin.Yeah I will keep dreaming. This year 1000%+ should keep the dream alive.
September 08, 2013, 11:14:06 AM
The coalition of the willing will strike Syria causing the prices of commodities to rise. This in turn will affect energy prices which will lead to an increase in BTC prices.
Keep dreaming. Cyprus, Syria, Poland. No increase for bitcoin. September 08, 2013, 11:04:49 AM
The coalition of the willing will strike Syria causing the prices of commodities to rise. This in turn will affect energy prices which will lead to an increase in BTC prices.
September 08, 2013, 11:02:30 AM
September 08, 2013, 10:29:03 AM
Interesting, saw this H&S as at an angle with the last bit being finished and then going into an ascending wedge (or pennant). We broke down from the pennant but now I see your H&S being
more symmetrical. Hmmm...
September 08, 2013, 10:21:43 AM
September 08, 2013, 10:02:15 AM
September 08, 2013, 09:10:53 AM
September 08, 2013, 09:02:21 AM
September 08, 2013, 08:08:18 AM
Race Analogy: The person with debt "jumps the gun" and runs out in front of everyone else and gives the appearance of being a better athlete, yet he is not any better than the rest, and once it if finally discovered when they review the race....they have to start the race all over again...Once it is discovered that someone used debt and are not paying it back, there is a financial crisis and a "reset" of the financial race.
No debt not being paid is an inherent feature of the system, it keeps the interest from compounding once it is written off. Interest is actually an insurance payment against that.
September 08, 2013, 08:02:15 AM
September 08, 2013, 07:02:20 AM
September 08, 2013, 06:46:14 AM
Boring. My magic 8 ball is expecting 25k ฿ sale. Would be great.
September 08, 2013, 06:14:38 AM
http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis.html
^Watch if you haven't already.
^Watch if you haven't already.
Really interesting. The super-exponential part really hit home, as I remember people figuring out that bitcoin was in super-exponential growth in the first week of April. Still, it doesn't really indicate how one should trade. Bubbles don't have to pop, it's just that the super-exponential behavior has an expiration date and "something" happens afterwards that is different.
For example: Is the underlying cause for this exponential behavior (up or down) "debt" related? If it is debt related, then it is artificial, it is manipulated, it is an illusion. On the other hand, if it is not caused by debt, but rather natural market forces, and "not leveraged", then there is no reason to believe that the growth is in any way artificial or unsustainable, in reality the price at any moment would reflect the "true" price; thus, bubbles would essentially not be formable. Basically it all comes down to debt and leverage. Debt adds risk. The more debt-leverage involved, the more the debt-related risk associated with it, exponentially. Most people are deceived by debt because they just look at the money, and they forget to think about risk. If you want a stable financial market, eliminate ALL debt. This means you have to actually save money and be productive in order to create wealth. Debt is borrowing money that you don't have...essentially it is like a race analogy.
Race Analogy: The person with debt "jumps the gun" and runs out in front of everyone else and gives the appearance of being a better athlete, yet he is not any better than the rest, and once it if finally discovered when they review the race....they have to start the race all over again...Once it is discovered that someone used debt and are not paying it back, there is a financial crisis and a "reset" of the financial race.
There's another, maybe simpler, explanation for why it's different for Bitcoin (yeah, yeah, bears I know. It's never different). Let's make the simplifying assumption that there is, at a give time, a fair but unknown evaluation of a commodity, and that the market attempts to discover it (pretty standard, right).
If our current ideas about the eventual importance of Bitcoin are even remotely right, then the current evaluation is still several orders of magnitude below that eventually "fair" evaluation. Note: it's okay that this is the case, markets take their time, and there's obviously a lot of risk.
Anyway, the argument in favor of double exponential growth is that because the gap is so huge between current evaluation and (what I stipulated as ) the eventually fair evaluation, any shift in market perception must result in huge growth, whether it corrects back afterwards or not.
If in some other, more mature, market the evaluation goes from, say, 95% of the fair value to 99% of the fair value, it can do so at more reasonable pace. Double exponential growth in those cases probably is a sign that a correction will happen.
In our case, if we're at 1% of the eventual evaluation, and try to go to, say, 50%, it has to be a at a breakneck pace. Sure, usually double exponential growth means correction in our little market as well, but the way it seems to go is a frantic race that increases price 10-fold, then corrects back to half of that, or maybe a third. So what's left of the initial growth is still pretty impressive.
September 08, 2013, 06:02:18 AM
September 08, 2013, 05:02:44 AM
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