Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32645. (Read 26470281 times)

it is gambling because you don't know what will happen tomorrow. And everything can happen.

This is not simply gambling against chance like roulette or dice. This is controlling your risk and affecting your outcomes to maximize some sort of objective, which in this realm is acquiring more bitcoins. Betting blindly on what people are posting on this forum is bad gambling. Affecting the amount people are going to behave by dumping btc/usd considering certain conditions and betting on that is good gambling.

this is gambling, nobody wins 100% time.

I would. The name of this game is increasing the amount of bitcoins you have in the long term. if you don't get that then you're a weak hand.

i dont think they will cry much if they have 1k bitcoins more or less.

would you sell if you didn't think you could buy back your 10k BTC at a profit? I wouldn't.


think about it,
Flash dump the wrong way, sure you might attract some sellers to go with you, but will you convince enough sellers so that you can buy back your position without a loss? pshh. don't forget about the bulls buying into your dump as a result of the lower prices (supply/demand don't forget!), taking up your position.

 Absolutely right! There's no contradiction to what I said.

This rally left many of us scratching heads, with single large buys setting new price level, and no profit taking 'yet'.
The road ahead is steeper requiring more heavy $ while USD coming entering btc economy decreased substantially after the hype. I believe saturation point is not far and big boys are just waiting for buy side to fill up before dumping starts, as currently 10k sell brings us back to 85.

I think you are vastly overestimating the amount of people holding huge amounts such as 50,000 coins. Most of early adopters sold A LOT in 2011. And many sold out for good. So, I think there is only a handful of individuals holding such amounts. Plus, I think there is also quite an overestimation on the amount of "early miners" holding 10s of k's of coins. Again, that was true in 2011, not so much now. In my opinion there are more "Winklevosses" type of investors that hold massive amount of coins, bought in the market, than early miners.

Just check the thread in this subforum, where addresses with massive funds are listed: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/just-looks-at-how-calm-these-people-are-249718

You will see that there are almost no "newly generated coins" in those addresses (if there are at all, I didn't see any but I didn't research thoroughly). Most of those coins come from purchases, either from individuals, or from MtGox controlled wallets. Plus, an amazing amount of coins come from the "SR mixer", which is something a miner doesn't need to use... Your freshly generated coins go straight to a fresh address, so they are pretty much untraceable (in fact mining is one of the best ways to have BTC's anonymously), while bought coins leave a trace (Gox knows who you are, the "early adopter" that sold you 20,000 coins probably too, etc.)

You get the wrong end of the stick my friend: The coins in the cold wallet are NOT play money but a retirement plan. The extra 10k are just for playing and gambling with a couple of other early adopters (sitting on a caribbean island, drinking cocktails and sniffing nose candy).

When you own 200,000BTC, there are only a few things you can do to increase your percentage

i suppose he wanted to point out, that the three big buys happenend in nearly constant intervals?
you can watch that quite often (saw same thing last month, some whales seem to like regularity), it's nice to recognize but i wouldn't recommend solely relying on it.

according to whale's schedule next buy could come in about half an hour...or not...

whatever i don't buy that whole thing...whales drove us down and now they lift us up within 2 weeks...and they surely made good profit from it.
so why not drive us down at 105 to 110$ again?
you can just surf the waves or stand aside and enjoy the show while holding your stash.

farfetched, if they held it this long it is no longer play money my friend. this is very useful trading capital in a small market. Every move is going to be calculated to maximize the holder's advantage. i also imagine specialists are in this market by now, considering the Winklevosses' investment.

see: http://www.investopedia.com/university/electronictrading/trading2.asp

 Well, because as an early adopter I might hold 50,000 coins in my cold wallet and like to play rollercoaster with about 10,000 coins - play money.

Isn't that basically the BTC pricing model?  He with lots of USD/BTC can push the market at will?  Stability in BTC is an illusion, it means someone with lotsa cash/coin hasn't made a transaction in a while. 

I see your point but BTC is different (really, hear me out).

Most of the big holders mined their coins imo. The others bought in at really really low rates and are just holding lots that they paid next to nothing for.
On the flip side of things, someone buying $1,000,000 worth of coins is a really different case scenario than the dumping (though the values are comparable).

I can't imagine early adopters trying to bring the price back down though and if they already didn't sell, why do so now?

I'm mixed up, or is that down? 

In any event, the next few days will show us where we're going next

True, I only argued that never happen that all bids would move higher - there would potentialy be new hidden money (not placed on bids till now).

That is why it makes me wonder so much.