Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3277. (Read 26716778 times)

It seems to me that people are getting a little too comfortable with the idea that the bottom is behind us.  Especially as the mtgox coins are closer to being distributed.  Granted, as soon as the mtgox cloud over the market is no more, we should see a monster rally.  People going long right now though are taking a pretty big gamble that the market will be able to absorb more than 100K BTC.  I'm not a market timer, but I'd be careful here.  The market appears to be setting itself up for a pretty buy 'buy the rumor, sell the news' moment.  DCA is always a good idea, but if I were betting the farm all in one spot, I'd wait until we see how the market reacts to the gox coins.  I'd rather lose a few % on the upside than risk losing half because I wanted to grab the absolute bottom.

Explanation

Explanation

You are lucky, in Sweden everything from outside EU is automatically charged with customs fee and VAT, and it has to be paid or the customs will not release your shipment.

It used to be that you were supposed to pay it yourself after you received your package, but nobody did, so they changed the sysytem.

Thats the Thing which can be relatable, All of weak hands now vanished they will buy now on ATH good Luck,

If you're importing from the UK you are doing something wrong...

Explanation

Explanation

This week bitcoin candle has more Indication for rise amidst others assumptions that it may go more dip to $16k, while the position at current situation gives more Indication for a rising and this has been predicted by many using varieties of theories in explaining it, one of the said explanation gives an analysis using Adam and Eve graphical illustration on the price speculation.

Bitcoin price has been down upto 70% since late last year but more likely to rise by 30% between the Q3 and Q4 of this year.

The First Scenario



The Second Scenario

the noon wall report at 11:44am


dyor


4h



D



W

stronghands

Tradingview masterrace! You can share your ideas and get likes to boost your ego on Tradingview. You people are just hipsters 


Looks like a less developed but more stable version of cryptowatch but does not even seem to have simple Heiken Ashi candlesticks.

4/10. my eyes.


Looks like a worse version of coinmarketcap. 1/10

Explanation

Maybe they need more guns?

Asking for a friend.


It appears to be fairly obvious (emphasis added by yours truly in case you missed it) that Canada has been serving as the testing grounds for the PTB to figure out a way to shut down the bitcoins, deee cornz... my lil precious....

They are doing a preliminary run.. #justsaying.




Fuck Novogratz that slimy little shitcoiner and rug-pulling scammer (how's that Luna tatoo working out for ya? asking Novogratz, in abstentia).  

Novograts would not know a bat, if it were to slap him in the face. for funzies


By the way, Bitcoin was already at $1 trillion (when we are at $54k. and thus nearly $1.3 trillion when at $69k), and it surely seems to be the case that bitcoin already has security and infrastructure that would fairly easily support 10x to 100x of the amount that it already reached... so Novo can fuck off with his wimpyp-ass proclamation that bitcoin infrastructure can support a $2 trillion market cap.

He might not even know what bitcoin is.. He is too busy pulling the rug from retail in various ways on a regular and ongoing basis.



That's fair.  Something like that would create even additional carnage of gamblers (likely deserved, too).


Huh?  Are you talking about these various tops within the next year or two? or three years? or some other time frame?  or are you still referring to a kind of 2019 front running scenario?

There surely would be a difference of the timelines that are contemplated if there were like a 2019 front running, and if you are referring to that, then such a thing could happen quickly.. but then have decent after effects..

The 2019 front running had caused something like 3.3x price run in 3 months, but the top of $13,880 was still 30% below the then ATH..   A 3.3x now would put BTC at right around the ATH.. and so I don't know.. .. and I also would not expect that BTC prices could shoot from here right through what might be our current deadman's zone (of about $62k to $90k) if it were to go straight up into that deadman's zone..

Surely if we were to get consolidation before getting into what I consider to be the current deadman's zone, then it becomes more possible to shoot through it... but sure anything can happen.. even though I personally refer to attempt to address more likely possible scenarios rather than incorporating extreme scenarios into the base case of more likely scenarios.. even though the extreme scenarios could happen, it is usually not a good practice to describe extreme scenarios as a kind of base case plausibility, even if such extreme scenarios could end up playing out.  

Furthermore, it seems to be getting a wee bit ahead of ourselves to even be trying to figure out legs beyond something like a shooting up scenario (like the April 2019 event), even if that scenario might play out.. .and it may well even be a kind of minority scenario anyhow, even if it had happened previously and not even that far back in bitcoin's history.

Explanation

Price speculation is great, few points, however:

1. Every new cycle is different.
2. We are due for a large bounce, perhaps, but it could be a long "flat" instead (maybe at a small upward angle to stay close to 200WMA).
3. BIS says to banks that 1% in bitcoin (and other stuff) is OK. I believe that they have up to 5% for gold. Gold is at 10-12 tril. 1/5 of gold is 2-2.4 tril or 100-120K for btc (or 50-60K if bitcoin is 50% of the complex). Novogratz also mentioned something along the lines that current bitcoin and etc infrastructure can support 2tril valuation.
4. It is likely that we would have a front-running situation, like in 2019, but maybe even more amplified.
5. Some hodlers might take money off the table at 50-60K just because by then they would be exhausted and fear yet another top at those prices.

Conclusion: there are no most likely paths, but $100K-180K top appears most likely with a distinct possibility of something worse (like 60K).
however, the latter would probably mean much milder bottoming process.

Big internet outage in Canada today.
It's affecting everything.  INTERAC is down, debit card transactions are unavailable, 911 emergency services are unavailable, self-checkouts at many retailers are unavailable and it's been going on since 5am DST with no word of the cause.  All the Green P parking in Toronto is free today because their system is down. I think I'll stay home anyway.   We are so dependent on internet and cell phones; centralization sucks today.

Edit: Thanks for the bitcoin price site tips everyone!  My cell provider is up but connectivity is sketchy so I'm having problems loading the bitcointalk pages.

 

Have you considered that your problems are *caused* by an oversized and overbearing government and asking for a bigger and less accountable one to overcome them is looking at things somewhat askew?

Ringworld definitely not 100% efficient due to being a ring. Standard gravity presumably more important than worrying about suns burning out. Still an amazingly huge land area.

Well, to give some benefit of the doubt to ivomm, blow-off tops tend to be brief, and for some reason ivomm is coming off as more bearish than usual. So if he is suggesting that there is going to be a blow off top in the $168k area, that might be reasonable to consider the blow off top to be brief because that tends to be the nature of blow off tops.

No problem with Ivomm being conservative if that is what he wants to be (or feels to be the right BTC dynamics call from his perspective), and for sure I am way more whimpy in terms of any top that I might consider to be feasible and.or reasonable, and I tend to contemplate price ranges, and I am not even sure that my earlier calls from December 16 that go up to $1.5 million are off the table, even though for sure the timeline will need to be adjusted.. and sure at some point I may well need to rethink the specific assignment of prices, ranges and percentages.

It is not easy to attempt to figure out what the momentum might be and at what point the momentum might be deemed as changed.  So then coming up with a meaningful price range for UP may well be easier to lock in once the DOWN seems to be over, and then the level of UP (such as $168k, $250k or some other number) surely could depend on how we get there in terms of time and distance travelled (the upwards spurts are somewhat steep or flat?  I am not going to presume to know in advance whether we might be flat or steep because either is possible, even though we are kind of used to steep that comes at certain points in time towards the end of cycles such as a blow off top.. but sometimes we experience flat too that might cause us to believe that a blow off top has not yet happened. 

If all of us attempt to work with a presumption of around a 3-year timeline for the next blow-off top, then a whole hell of a lot of shit could happen between now and then, and surely I am a wee bit nervous, even as I type this post to be attempting to presume that such a top (blow-off or otherwise) might happen around 3 years from now.. .. but for sure, I am not against the framework and even some of your (LFC) somewhat seemingly rigid use of the four-year fractal framework for ballparking the likely timing of the top (whether blow-off or not).

On a personal level, I am tentatively considering that any meaningful reversal from such a violent bottom, such as $17,953 has about a minimum turn around time-frame of 5 months, so maybe a minimum of 2-3 months to get back into ATH territories $69k from there... so even though I am not opposed to your overall framework, I hate to attempt to call more than one leg at a time.. so I guess my point is that if we were to happen to have our bottom in, then the best that we might be able to attempt to be revisiting ATHs of $69k would be around 7-8 months from the mid-June bottom of $17,953.. and of course, I am even nervous about saying that because momentum can sometimes be a bitch and escalate way more quickly than expected, in spite my attempt to contemplate 7-8 months as a kind of reasonable base case minimum.


You should know better than that.

I want you to say what you think, and to say why you say that.  I am not trying to get you to say what I want because that is not going to help anyone.

Let me see if I can say this moar better. 

 I already asserted in the post that you redacted that I believe that you have gone into a pretty major and even unjustifiable transformation in your thinking about BTC merely after the BTC price went below $25k, and I stated that my thinking did not change very much merely because of the BTC price going below $25k and even some subsequent negative happenings in the past couple of months, and I doubt that the facts on the ground justify any such major transformation in thinking about BTC and where it might be going in the short to medium term. 

Sure, we are getting some pretty serious shit in terms of various kinds of fraud and overleveraging that some third parties were employing - including various ponzi schemes too.. and so many of them overlap.. yes.. I see that, and we found out about a lot of them after the Tera Luna bullshit around mid-May.. but we continued to find out about more and more frauds and ponzi schemes happening with other people's money.. Did we not think that some of these things were happening?  They just got caught, no?  Caught with their pants down... some of them, and not all of them, yet.


I don't know if some of this stuff that we are finding out is as new as you are making it out to be, and PlanB is only part of the up thesis.  I doubt that any of us who have any brains believe that something like the PlanB model guarantees future performance.  So I am sorry if your previous view of bitcoin might have been overly reliant upon that coming true. Of course, we have other ideas about bitcoin's anticipated price dynamics besides PlanB's model including ongoing exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects. 

Sure you can come to different conclusions in regards to how much weight to give to various factors and models, and there are no ways that I am suggesting to ignore facts on the ground and/or logical conclusions from some of the facts that we know or that we believe to be the case, and also we are likely to come to differing conclusions regarding how we might believe the various factors affect possible BTC price dynamics, short, medium and/or long term.  No problema that we might see some facts differently and weigh them differently.

Explanation