Finally, after 8 months of waiting we have a dead cat bounce! And all this because of the "good news" of some ponzis paying fiat debt and getting back their BTC collateral. Once again the market is irrational. These ponzis are specialized at coordinated BTC shorting to give the clients the proper yield in BTC. My guess is that they will wait for the cat to stall somewhere in the 26K-35K range, to resume the shorting.
The real question is will this bear market finish until the next halving or this time it will be different. I don't know how much BTC collateral all these ponzis have in total, but it seems enough to defend any short position even if there are not many BTC left on the spot exchanges. All this is of course just a speculation for the future, but it's been a 100% reality in the last 8 months. In this case the price will move something like this in the next 2.5 years: 17.5K->35K->20K->25K->15K (the last bottom might be around 12K or lower)->20K->30K->20K->42K. And then hopefully some good news will boost the next 2025 bull run to a brief last ATH in the 168K area (just a SOMA number like every other). This is the optimistic version. I don't want to speculate what will happen if these ponzis hold the price below the last ATH in 2025. It would be very dissapointing indeed.
Holy fuck.
You are providing the most optimistic version that you could realistically consider?
I really hope you are wrong, and you have been overdosing on too many bear juices...
It seems that you particularly turned bearish once we broke below $25k.. and I doubt that the world has changed that much since we went below $25k.. Sure there have been various liquidations of various gamblers (and naked swimmers).. especially once we went below $20k.. but still.
I hope that you are not talking your book, and you had earlier said that you would be buying your mistake from selling too much on the way up to $30k and beyond in late 2020, and you also said that you would buy back if the BTC price went below $20k, and the way you are talking, it seems that maybe you did not buy as much as you had anticipated.. you are now waiting for lower prices (and even hoping). Maybe we all talk our book in some regards? Sure, I don't tend to sell many BTC at any point, so I am nearly always talking about UPpity and preferring Uppity.. which could be considered a kind of way of talking my book.. to be continuously cheering for UPpity. I invested into BTC to cheer for UPpity, and always do better if the BTC price goes up rather than down.. and from my perspective, cheering for UP is what investing into something seems to mean (at least to me).
I will admit that for some reason, I was speculating that if third parties did not hold the BTC that they claimed to hold that they would have gotten wrecked on the way up rather than the way that we saw this latest reckening on the way down... So surely it is possible and even reasonably feasible for gamblers to get recked in either price direction.
I do surmise that it seems more feasible that any whale forces pushing the reckenings would attempt to use whatever momentum they have for as long as they can sustain it - so even if we have had down momentum for the past 8 months, I would not presume that such down momentum can be sustained (or that there is sufficient/adequate will power and resources to sustain it).
You said that we have not had any upward bounces in the past 8 months, but that is not true. I will concede that we did not really have any significant or meaningful upward bounces since about early April when we reached $48k. and surely this current BTC price performance might not even be considered as a sufficient and meaningful bounce unless we get close to or above $25k, no?
I do agree that the current momentum is down, so we cannot necessarily presume that the bottom is in, which is currently $17,593 on June 18... and I am not sure how much UP (or distance) that I would want to have before starting to feel comfortable to proclaim that the bottom is in.. .. and for sure getting upward BTC price movement and feeling sustainability does seem to be both a product of distance and time.. so getting above $30k might start to feel comfortable.. but it would depend on how fast it went there, too... for me it seems way too early to presume either direction, but I am not going to presume that the BTC price has to have any further bottoms beyond $17,593 merely because the odds are likely less than 50% that the bottom is in..
Maybe we are in the territory of 35%-ish that the $17,593 bottom is in? That is about as far as I am willing to go in this obviously fluid state that remains quite unclear.. and I don't really want to spend a lot of brain power on it.. even though I am currently enjoying our bounce and looking forward to seeing how far we might be able to go on this bounce.. so far only making it up to $22,401 (about 14 hours ago). Is that all the bouncening that we are going to get this time around? I hope not.
